Trump tus Ambassador South Kauslim xaiv tawm tsam tawm tsam North. Yog li Trump pov tseg nws.

"Qhov no qhia tias cov thawj coj tseem xav txog ... muaj kev tawm tsam."

Victor Chaw. CSIS

Hauv nws thawj Lub Xeev ntawm lub Union hais lus, Thawj Tswj Hwm Donald Trump tau siv sijhawm ntau los tham txog qhov xwm txheej nrog North Kauslim. Nws piav txog lub tebchaws ntau npaum li qhov uas George W. Bush tau piav txog Iraq hauv 2002: raws li kev lim hiam, kev tsis sib haum xeeb uas nws cov riam phom ua rau muaj kev hem thawj rau Asmeskas teb chaws.

Tab sis txawm hais tias nws muaj kev txhawj xeeb uas tau hnov ​​​​Trump ua ib rooj plaub me me rau lwm qhov kev tiv thaiv kev ua tsov rog, qhov ntawd tsis yog qhov teeb meem tshaj plaws ntawm cov xov xwm ntawm North Kauslim txoj cai tawm los nag hmo.

Ua ntej Trump cov lus pib, Washington Post tau tshaj tawm tias Trump qhov kev xaiv tsa rau Ambassador rau Kaus Lim Qab Teb - Victor Cha, yog ib tus kws tshaj lij Asmeskas hwm North Kauslim - tau raug tshem tawm. Qhov laj thawj uas tau hais los ntawm Post yog qhov txias txias: Cha tau tawm tsam cov thawj coj cov lus pom zoo rau kev txwv tub rog tawm tsam hauv lub rooj sib tham ntiag tug. Cha tag nrho tab sis lees paub qhov no nws tus kheej ob peb teev tom qab cov xov xwm tawg thaum nws luam tawm ib op-ed nyob rau hauv tib daim ntawv thuam lub tswv yim ntawm kev tawm tsam North Kauslim.

Cha qhov kev tshem tawm txhawj xeeb heev South Kauslim tsoom fwv, uas tau pom zoo rau qhov kev xaiv. Nws kuj ua rau cov kws paub txog North Kauslim txaus ntshai, uas pom nws yog ib qho kev qhia meej tias kev sib tham ua tsov rog tsis yog kev sib tham xwb.

Kingston Reif, tus thawj coj rau kev tshem riam phom thiab kev hem thawj txo txoj cai ntawm Arms Control Association hais tias "Qhov no [tshem tawm Cha ua tus xaiv tsa] qhia tias cov thawj coj tau txiav txim siab tiag tiag ...

Steve Saideman, tus kws tshaj lij ntawm Asmeskas txoj cai txawv teb chaws ntawm Carleton University, tau hais ntau dhau lawm rau Twitter: "Kev ua tsov rog Kauslim tshiab tam sim no tej zaum yuav muaj ntau dua li tsis nyob hauv 2018."

Vim li cas Victor Cha rov ua rau nws zoo li kev ua tsov ua rog tuaj

Cha yog tus kws tshaj lij North Kauslim. Ib tug kws tshawb fawb ntev, nws tau ua haujlwm hauv George W. Bush thawj coj los ntawm 2004 txog 2007 ua National Security Council tus thawj coj rau Asian affairs thiab tam sim no yog ib tug xibfwb ntawm Georgetown University.

Nws kuj tseem nyob ntawm qhov kawg hawkish ntawm North Kauslim kws tshaj lij spectrum. Nws tau pom zoo ua cov kauj ruam nruj heev los tiv thaiv North txoj haujlwm nuclear, zoo li teeb tsa lub nkoj tub rog nyob ib puag ncig North Kauslim txhawm rau cuam tshuam cov khoom siv nuclear uas nws sim muag rau cov neeg phem lossis lwm cov tswj hwm tsis ncaj ncees.

Ib tug North Kauslim hawk uas yog ob qho tib si muaj kev paub dhau los thiab muaj kev hwm dav zoo li qhov kev xaiv zoo tshaj plaws rau Trump cov thawj coj, yog li nws tau qhia tias Cha qhov kev xaiv tsa tau pom meej meej vim nws yog too dov rau pab pawg Trump.

Ib qhov nthuav dav ntawm qhov xwm txheej, qhia los ntawm cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag, tiag tiag hammers no point tsev:

Raws li ob tus neeg paub txog kev sib tham ntawm Mr Cha thiab Tsev Dawb, nws tau nug los ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm seb nws puas tau npaj los pab tswj kev khiav tawm ntawm cov pej xeem Asmeskas los ntawm Kaus Lim Qab Teb - kev ua haujlwm hu ua kev khiav tawm tsis muaj kev sib ntaus sib tua - uas yuav yuav luag txhua qhov yuav tsum tau ua ua ntej kev tawm tsam tub rog. Ob tus neeg tau hais tias Mr Cha, uas tau pom nyob rau sab hawkish ntawm spectrum ntawm North Kauslim, tau qhia nws qhov tshwj xeeb txog txhua yam kev tawm tsam tub rog.

Cov nyiaj no ua rau nws zoo li Trump cov thawj coj tab tom npaj rau kev tawm tsam rau North Kauslim - mus txog qhov uas lawv tau txiav txim siab txog kev thauj mus los ntawm yuav ua li cas los tiv thaiv cov neeg Asmeskas coob nyob rau sab qab teb. Cha tawm tsam lub tswv yim ntawm kev tawm tsam rau North Kauslim, uas zoo li tsis tsim nyog nws los ntawm kev xav.

Qhov tseeb tias Cha luam tawm op-ed tom qab txiav txim siab ua tsov rog tseem ceeb heev. Nws tshwj xeeb tau thuam cov laj thawj tom qab "ntshav qhov ntswg" tawm tsam - kev tawm tsam txwv rau North Kauslim cov tub rog thiab nuclear kev teeb tsa uas lub hom phiaj tsis ua kom qhov xwm txheej nce mus rau tag nrho kev ua tsov ua rog, tab sis qhia Pyongyang hais tias ntxiv kev sim ua kom nws cov phiaj xwm nuclear yuav tau ntsib. nrog zog. Pom tau tias, nws yog hom kev ua tub rog uas pab pawg Trump tau txav mus rau - thiab Cha xav tias nws txaus ntshai heev.

"Yog tias peb ntseeg tias Kim [Jong Un] tsis tuaj yeem cuam tshuam yam tsis muaj kev tawm tsam zoo li no, peb tuaj yeem ntseeg tau li cas tias kev tawm tsam yuav txwv tsis pub nws los teb zoo?" Chaw sau. "Thiab yog tias Kim tsis tuaj yeem xav txog, kev xav tsis thoob thiab ciam teb ntawm kev tsis sib haum xeeb, peb tuaj yeem tswj hwm tus ntaiv nce ntxiv, uas yog nyob rau ntawm tus yeeb ncuab txoj kev nkag siab zoo ntawm cov teeb meem thiab kev cuam tshuam?"

Qhov tseeb tias Cha raug tso tseg tom qab tshaj tawm qhov kev thuam no sab hauv yog, cov kws tshaj lij hais tias, yog ib qho qhia meej tias cov thawj coj tab tom xav txog kev ua tsov rog tiag tiag.

"Qhov ntawd Victor Cha xav tias raug yuam kom mus rau hauv cov ntaub ntawv yog ib qho qhia tias txaus ntshai npaum li cas qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev tawm tsam tiag tiag," sau Mira Rapp-Hooper, a North Kauslim kws tshaj lij ntawm Yale.

Txawm hais tias kev ua tsov ua rog tsis tshwm sim, qhov xwm txheej Cha yog teeb meem

Cov neeg tawm tsam tawm tsam US-North Korean Nuclear tensions Adam Berry / Getty Dluab

Nws kuj tseem muaj peev xwm hais tias qhov kev hem thawj ntawm kev quab yuam no yog qhov tsis txaus ntseeg, thiab Cha qhov kev tshem tawm yog ib feem ntawm Trump cov thawj coj ua haujlwm.

Jenny Town, tus thawj coj ntawm US-Korea Institute ntawm Johns Hopkins hais tias "Tus thawj tswj hwm tau sim ua kom pom tseeb tias kev ua tsov rog muaj peev xwm ua kom hem North Kauslim kom coj tus cwj pwm ceev faj ntxiv," said Jenny Town, tus thawj coj ntawm US-Korea Institute ntawm Johns Hopkins. "Nyob rau hauv cov tswv yim zoo li no, koj tsis tuaj yeem muaj cov neeg tsis muaj npe, tshwj xeeb hauv koj tus kheej kev tswj hwm, yog tias koj xav tau kev hem thawj kom ntseeg tau."

Tab sis yog tias qhov no muaj tseeb, thiab ntau cov neeg soj ntsuam paub xav tias nws tsis yog, ces coj Cha tawm ntawm kev xav yog tseem txaus ntshai. Cov cim qhia ntau dua Trump cov thawj coj xa tawm tias lawv mob siab txog kev ua tsov rog, qhov ntau lawv yuav pib ib qho tsis txhob txwm ua.

"Qhov teeb meem ntawm lub tswv yim zoo li no, tau kawg, yog tias nyob rau hauv tus txheej txheem ntawm kev sim tsim kom muaj kev hem thawj uas ntseeg tau, North Kauslim yuav pib ntseeg nws - thiab tsis txhob raug hem, yuav ua rau ntau dua," Town ntxiv. "Cov lus nug yog, ntawm qhov twg peb ua yuam kev yuam kev rau hauv kev ua tsov rog uas tsis tsim nyog thiab zam tau tag nrho?"

Qhov tsis muaj ib tus neeg sawv cev rau Seoul ua rau qhov xwm txheej no ntau dua. Ambassadors ua lub luag haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv ob qho tib si hauv kev txhawb nqa cov phooj ywg thiab hauv kev xa cov phooj ywg kev xav rov qab mus rau Washington. Nws yog qhov tsawg heev uas tsis muaj ib tus neeg sawv cev rau lub tebchaws uas yog ib tus phooj ywg tseem ceeb ntawm lub sijhawm no hauv kev tswj hwm tshiab - rau qhov laj thawj zoo.

"Vim tias muaj kev ntxhov siab ntawm cov ceg av qab teb thiab qhov tseem ceeb ntawm US-Korea alliance, nws yog qhov phem dua li kev ua tsis ncaj ncees uas tsis muaj US Ambassador nyob rau hauv Seoul," Reif, tus kws tshaj lij ntawm Arms Control Association, hais.

Thaum muaj kev kub ntxhov ntawm Asmeskas thiab North Kauslim, Cha yuav yog lub suab tseem ceeb rau kev ceev faj hauv kev tswj hwm. Nws kuj tseem yuav muaj peev xwm tshaj tawm cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb ntawm North los ntawm tsoomfwv Kaus Lim Qab Teb mus rau qib siab tshaj plaws ntawm tsoomfwv Meskas, nrog rau kev tshaj tawm tsoomfwv Kaus Lim Qab Teb txoj kev tsis ntseeg txog txhua yam kev ua tub rog nce ntxiv.

Cha lub sij hawm, luv luv, yuav tau muab ib qho kev ntsuam xyuas tseem ceeb ntawm kev kub ntxhov uas tsis muaj kev tswj hwm. Tsis muaj caij nyoog li ntawd tam sim no.

"Yuav tso tseg ib qho kev xaiv tsa nom tswv rau kev sib cog lus tseem ceeb nyob rau hauv nruab nrab ntawm kev kub ntxhov loj yog qhov tsis tau muaj dua li," sau Abraham Denmark, leej twg ua haujlwm li deputy assistant secretary rau East Asia hauv Obama cov thawj coj. "Qhov tseeb tias nws yog ib tus neeg paub thiab tsim nyog raws li Victor Cha yuav tsum ua rau txhua tus nres."

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