Los ntawm Gareth Porter, Middle East Qhov muag
Cov ntaub ntawv txhawb nqa Putin qhov kev lees paub tias qhov kev tua tau npaj ua ntej vim yog Lavxias kev foob pob ntawm Turkey-txuas nrog cov neeg ntxeev siab hauv Syria.
Tebchaws Asmeskas thiab nws cov phooj ywg NATO tau muab kev ua yeeb yam ntawm NATO kev sib koom ua ke tom qab cov tub ceev xwm Turkish tau nthuav tawm lawv cov ntaub ntawv tias kev tua ntawm Lavxias teb sab dav hlau tshwm sim tom qab ob lub dav hlau tau nkag mus rau hauv lub dav hlau Turkish.
Tus sawv cev Turkish tshaj tawm ua si cov ntaub ntawv teev tseg ntawm cov lus ceeb toom cov tub rog Turkish F16 tau tshaj tawm rau cov dav hlau Lavxias tsis muaj lus teb rau Lavxias, thiab Asmeskas thiab lwm lub tebchaws NATO tau pom zoo rau Turkey txoj cai los tiv thaiv nws lub dav hlau.
US Defense Department spokesman Colonel Steve Warren txhawb lub Turkish thov tias 10 cov lus ceeb toom tau tshaj tawm nyob rau lub sijhawm ntawm tsib feeb. Obama cov thawj coj pom tau hais tias tsis tshua muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog seb cov dav hlau Lavxias puas tau hla mus rau hauv lub dav hlau Turkish. Col Warren txais hais tias US cov tub ceev xwm tseem tseem tsis tau tsim qhov chaw uas lub dav hlau Lavxias nyob thaum lub foob pob hluav taws Turkish tsoo lub dav hlau.
Txawm hais tias Obama cov thawj coj tsis yog hais txog lees nws, cov ntaub ntawv twb muaj txhawb nqa Lavxias teb sab kev lees paub tias kev tua neeg Turkish yog, raws li Lavxias Thawj Tswj Hwm Vladimir Putin tau lees paub, "kev tawm tsam" uas tau ua tib zoo npaj ua ntej.
Lub hauv paus Turkish thov tias nws cov F-16 tus kws tsav dav hlau tau ceeb toom rau ob lub dav hlau Lavxias 10 lub sijhawm nyob rau lub sijhawm tsib feeb tiag tiag yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws uas Turkey tsis tau qhia qhov tseeb txog kev tua.
Lavxias teb sab Su-24 "Fencer" dav hlau fighter, uas yog piv rau US F111, muaj peev xwm ntawm ib tug ceev ceev. 960 mais ib teev ntawm qhov siab siab, tab sis nyob rau hauv qis altitude nws Cruising ceev yog nyob ib ncig ntawm 870 mph, los yog li 13 mais ib feeb. Tus navigator ntawm lub dav hlau thib ob paub tseeb Tom qab nws cawm tau tias Su-24s tau ya ntawm kev caij nkoj ceev thaum lub davhlau.
Kaw tsom xam ntawm ob lub Turkish thiab Lavxias cov duab ntawm txoj kev radar ntawm Lavxias teb sab dav hlau qhia tau hais tias qhov ntxov tshaj plaws taw tes nyob rau hauv uas ib tug ntawm cov Lavxias teb sab dav hlau nyob rau hauv txoj kev uas tej zaum yuav tau txhais raws li kev coj mus rau hauv lub Turkish airspace yog kwv yees li 16 mais ntawm tus ciam teb Turkish - txhais tau hais tias nws tsuas yog ib feeb thiab 20 vib nas this. deb ntawm ciam teb.
Tsis tas li ntawd, raws li ob qho tib si ntawm txoj kev ya davhlau, tsib feeb ua ntej kev tua cov dav hlau Lavxias yuav tau ya mus rau sab hnub tuaj - deb los ntawm ciam teb Turkish.
Yog tias cov neeg tsav dav hlau Turkish tau pib ceeb toom rau Lavxias dav hlau tsib feeb ua ntej kev tua, yog li ntawd, lawv tau ua ntev ntev ua ntej cov dav hlau txawm mus rau qhov kev taw qhia dav dav ntawm qhov me me ntawm ciam teb Turkish hauv Northern Latakia xeev.
Yuav kom ua tiav qhov kev tawm tsam, qhov tseeb, cov neeg tsav dav hlau Turkish yuav tsum tau nyob hauv huab cua thiab npaj tawm tsam sai li sai tau thaum lawv paub tias Lavxias lub dav hlau tau dav hlau.
Cov pov thawj los ntawm cov tub ceev xwm Turkish lawv tus kheej yog li tawm hauv chav me me rau kev tsis ntseeg tias qhov kev txiav txim siab tua lub dav hlau Lavxias tau ua ua ntej cov dav hlau Lavxias txawm pib lawv lub davhlau.
Lub hom phiaj ntawm kev tawm tsam yog ncaj qha ntsig txog lub luag haujlwm Turkish hauv kev txhawb nqa cov tub rog tawm tsam Assad nyob ib puag ncig ntawm ciam teb. Qhov tseeb, tsoomfwv Erdogan tsis tau siv zog los zais nws lub hom phiaj nyob rau hnub ua ntej kev tawm tsam. Hauv kev sib tham nrog tus kws tshaj lij Lavxias thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 20, tus kws lis haujlwm txawv tebchaws tau liam cov neeg Lavxias ntawm "kev foob pob hnyav" ntawm "cov pej xeem Turkmen zos" thiab hais tias tej zaum yuav muaj "kev tshwm sim loj" tshwj tsis yog cov Russians xaus lawv txoj haujlwm tam sim ntawd.
Tus Thawj Kav Tebchaws Turkish Ahmet Davutoglu yog qhov tseeb dua, tshaj tawm tias Turkish kev ruaj ntseg tub rog "tau raug qhia kom ua pauj tawm tsam ib qho kev txhim kho uas yuav ua phem rau Turkey kev ruaj ntseg ciam teb". Davutoglu tau hais ntxiv tias: "Yog tias muaj kev tawm tsam uas yuav ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov neeg tawg rog mus rau Qaib Cov Txwv, yuav tsum tau ntsuas ob qho tib si hauv Syria thiab Turkey."
Qhov kev hem thawj Turkish los ua pauj - tsis yog tawm tsam Lavxias nkag mus ntawm nws lub dav hlau tab sis teb rau cov xwm txheej dav dav ntawm ciam teb - tuaj ntawm qhov kawg ntawm kev sib ntaus sib tua ntawm tsoomfwv Syrian thiab cov neeg tua neeg kev ntseeg. Thaj chaw uas lub dav hlau raug tua yog cov neeg nyob hauv Turkmen haiv neeg tsawg. Lawv tau tsis tshua tseem ceeb tshaj li cov tub rog txawv teb chaws thiab lwm cov tub rog uas tau ua ntau qhov kev tawm tsam hauv cheeb tsam txij li nruab nrab xyoo 2013 txhawm rau hem Thawj Tswj Hwm Assad lub ntsiab Alawite redoubt ntawm ntug dej hiav txwv hauv Latakia xeev.
Charles Lister, tus kws tshaj lij Askiv uas tau mus xyuas Latakia xeev ntau zaus hauv 2013, tau sau tseg hauv kev xam phaj lub Yim Hli 2013, "Latakia, txoj cai mus txog rau sab qaum teb sab qaum teb [piv txwv li hauv thaj tsam Turkmen Roob], tau ua lub chaw ruaj khov rau cov pab pawg neeg sib tw txawv teb chaws tau yuav luag ib xyoos tam sim no." Nws kuj tau pom tias, tom qab lub xeev Islamic (IS) tau tshwm sim nyob rau sab qaum teb, al-Nusra Front thiab nws cov phooj ywg hauv cheeb tsam tau "tawm mus" rau ISIL thiab tias ib pab pawg sib ntaus sib tua hauv Latakia tau " dhau los ua pab pawg pem hauv ntej" rau ISIL.
Nyob rau lub Peb Hlis 2014 cov neeg tawm tsam kev ntseeg tau pib muaj kev tawm tsam loj nrog kev txhawb nqa Turkish hnyav los ntes lub nroog Armenian ntawm Kessab ntawm ntug dej hiav txwv Mediterranean ntawm Latakia ze rau ciam teb Turkish. Ib daim ntawv xov xwm Istanbul, Bagcilar, tau hais tawm ib tug tswvcuab ntawm Pawg Neeg Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm Txawv Tebchaws Turkish raws li kev tshaj tawm cov lus pov thawj los ntawm cov neeg nyob ze ntawm ciam teb tias ntau txhiab tus neeg tawm tsam tau hla dhau tsib qhov sib txawv ntawm ciam teb hauv tsheb nrog Syrian daim phiaj los koom nrog kev tawm tsam.
Thaum qhov kev tawm tsam ntawd, ntxiv rau, lub dav hlau Syrian teb rau qhov kev tawm tsam tawm tsam Kessab yog raug tua los ntawm tub rog Turkish nyob rau hauv ib tug zoo kawg li parallel rau downing ntawm lub dav hlau Russia. Qaib ntxhw tau thov tias lub dav hlau tau ua txhaum nws lub dav hlau tab sis tsis muaj kev dag hais tias tau ceeb toom ua ntej. Lub hom phiaj ntawm kev sim txwv Syria los ntawm kev siv nws lub zog airpower hauv kev tiv thaiv lub nroog yog pom tseeb.
Tam sim no kev sib ntaus sib tua hauv xeev Latakia tau hloov mus rau thaj tsam Bayirbucak, qhov chaw Syrian tub rog huab cua thiab hauv av tau ua. sim txiav cov khoom siv nruab nrab ntawm cov zos tswj los ntawm Nusra Front thiab nws cov phooj ywg thiab ciam teb Turkish rau ob peb lub hlis. Lub zos tseem ceeb hauv Nusra Front cheeb tsam ntawm kev tswj hwm yog Salma, uas tau nyob hauv jihadist txhais tes txij li xyoo 2012. Kev cuam tshuam ntawm Lavxias Air Force hauv kev sib ntaus sib tua tau muab qhov txiaj ntsig tshiab rau cov tub rog Syrian.
Lub Turkish tua-down yog li no nyob rau hauv lub ntsiab lus rau kev dag ntxias cov neeg Lavxias los ntawm kev txuas ntxiv lawv cov haujlwm hauv thaj chaw tawm tsam al-Nusra Front thiab nws cov phooj ywg, tsis siv ib qho tab sis ob qhov sib txawv pretexts: ntawm ib sab tes yog qhov tsis txaus ntseeg heev ntawm ciam teb Lavxias. Kev nkag mus rau NATO cov phooj ywg, thiab lwm yam, kev foob pob foob pob Turkmen rau cov neeg tuaj saib hauv tebchaws Turkish.
Obama cov thawj coj tsis kam hais txog qhov teeb meem tshwj xeeb ntawm qhov chaw dav hlau raug tua qhia tias nws paub zoo txog qhov tseeb. Tab sis cov thawj coj tau mob siab dhau rau nws txoj cai ntawm kev ua haujlwm nrog Turkey, Saudi Arabia thiab Qatar kom yuam kom tsoomfwv hloov pauv los qhia qhov tseeb txog qhov xwm txheej.
Obama cov lus teb rau qhov tua-down blandly liam qhov teeb meem ntawm Lavxias teb sab tub rog nyob rau hauv ib feem ntawm Syria. Nws tau tshaj tawm tias "Lawv tab tom ua haujlwm ze ze rau ciam teb Turkish," thiab yog tias cov neeg Lavxias tsuas yog tsom rau Daesh nkaus xwb, "qee qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb no lossis qhov muaj peev xwm ua yuam kev lossis nce ntxiv yuav tshwm sim tsawg dua."
-Gareth Porter yog ib tus neeg sau xov xwm ywj pheej tshawb nrhiav thiab yeej ntawm 2012 Gellhorn nqi zog rau kev sau xov xwm. Nws yog tus sau phau ntawv luam tawm tshiab Manufactured Crisis: Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare .
