Ib lub lis piam tom qab lub Tsev Dawb tshaj tawm Nws tab tom txiav txim siab ua tub rog tawm tsam North Kauslim
Los ntawm Stephen Gowans, Leej Twg.
Tebchaws Asmeskas thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb tab tom ua lawv cov kev ua tub rog loj tshaj plaws nyob rau hauv Kauslim ceg av qab teb [1], ib lub lis piam tom qab lub Tsev Dawb tau tshaj tawm tias nws tab tom txiav txim siab ua tub rog tawm tsam North Kauslim kom coj kev hloov pauv tsoomfwv. [2] Cov kev tawm dag zog hauv Asmeskas muaj xws li:
• 300,000 South Kauslim cov tub rog
• 17,000 US cov tub rog
• Lub supercarrier USS Carl Vinson
• US F-35B thiab F-22 stealth fighters
• US B-18 thiab B-52 bombers
• Kaus lim qab teb F-15s thiab KF-16s jetfighters. [3]
Thaum lub tebchaws United States sau cov kev xyaum ua "kev tiv thaiv nkaus xwb" [4] qhov nomenclature yog dag. Cov kev tawm dag zog tsis muaj kev tiv thaiv hauv kev xav ntawm kev xyaum los tawm tsam North Kauslim kev ua phem thiab thawb North Kauslim cov tub rog rov qab hla 38 qhov sib npaug thaum muaj kev tawm tsam North Kauslim, tab sis xav txog kev cuam tshuam ntawm North Kauslim txhawm rau ua kom tsis muaj peev xwm ntawm nws cov nuclear. riam phom, rhuav tshem nws cov tub rog hais kom ua, thiab tua nws tus thawj coj.
Cov kev tawm dag zog tsuas tuaj yeem txhais tau tias "kev tiv thaiv" yog tias tau ua raws li kev npaj rau cov lus teb rau qhov tseeb North Kauslim kev tawm tsam thawj zaug, lossis raws li kev rov hais dua ua ntej emptive teb rau qhov kev cia siab thawj zaug. Nyob rau hauv ob qho xwm txheej, qhov kev tawm dag zog yog cuam tshuam txog kev cuam tshuam, thiab Pyongyang qhov kev tsis txaus siab uas US thiab South Kauslim cov tub rog tau xyaum kev ntxeem tau siv tau.
Tab sis qhov tshwm sim ntawm North Kauslim tawm tsam rau Kaus Lim Qab Teb yog ploj mus me me. Pyongyang yog outspent tub rog los ntawm Seoul los ntawm ib qho ntawm yuav luag 4: 1, [5] thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb cov tub rog tuaj yeem tso siab rau cov cuab yeej cuab tam ntau dua li North Kauslim. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov tub rog Kaus Lim Qab Teb tsis yog tsuas yog txhawb nqa los ntawm, tab sis yog nyob rau hauv cov lus txib ntawm, cov tub rog Asmeskas uas tsis tau muaj dua los. Kev tawm tsam North Kauslim rau Kaus Lim Qab Teb yuav yog kev tua tus kheej, thiab yog li peb tuaj yeem suav nws qhov ua tau zoo li tsis muaj nyob, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv lub teeb ntawm US cov lus qhuab qhia nuclear uas tso cai rau kev siv riam phom nuclear tawm tsam North Kauslim. Qhov tseeb tiag, Asmeskas cov thawj coj tau ceeb toom rau North Kauslim cov thawj coj nyob rau ntau lub sijhawm uas lawv lub tebchaws tuaj yeem hloov mus ua "chav taws kub hnyiab." [6] Tias leej twg ntawm qhov tshwm sim hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas lub xeev tiag tiag ntseeg tias Kaus Lim Qab Teb yog nyob rau hauv kev hem thawj ntawm kev tawm tsam los ntawm North yog qhov nce.
Cov kev tawm dag zog no tau ua nyob rau hauv lub moj khaum ntawm Kev Npaj Ua Haujlwm 5015 uas "hom phiaj tshem tawm North lub riam phom ntawm kev puas tsuaj loj thiab npaj ... tsom rau kev coj noj coj ua. " [7]
Nyob rau hauv kev sib txuas nrog decapitation raids, cov kev tawm dag zog koom nrog "US Special Missions Units lub luag hauj lwm rau kev tua Osama bin Laden nyob rau hauv 2011, nrog rau SEAL Team Rau." [8] Raws li ib tsab ntawv xov xwm tshaj tawm, "kev koom tes ntawm cov tub rog tshwj xeeb hauv kev xyaum ua haujlwm ... tej zaum yuav yog qhov qhia tau hais tias ob tog tab tom rov sib tham txog kev tua Kim Jong Un." [9]
Ib tug tub ceev xwm Asmeskas tau hais rau South Kauslim lub koom haum xov xwm Yonhap tias "Ib tug loj dua thiab ntau haiv neeg Asmeskas cov tub rog ua haujlwm tshwj xeeb yuav koom nrog xyoo no ... kev tawm dag zog los xyaum ua haujlwm kom nkag mus rau sab qaum teb, tshem tawm North txoj kev ua tsov rog thiab rhuav tshem nws cov tub rog tseem ceeb. ” [10]
Qhov xav tsis thoob, txawm hais tias koom nrog kev tawm dag zog siab heev - uas tuaj yeem tsis muaj qhov tshwm sim ntau dua li ua rau cov neeg North Kauslim thiab ua rau lawv raug kev hem thawj yuav tshwm sim - Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Tiv Thaiv Tebchaws Kaus Lim Qab Teb tau tshaj tawm tias "Cov Kaus Lim Qab Teb thiab Asmeskas tau mob siab saib xyuas cov kev txav ntawm Cov tub rog North Kauslim hauv kev npaj rau qhov ua rau muaj kev tawm tsam. " [11]
Qhov kev xav tias Washington thiab Seoul yuav tsum tau ceeb toom rau North Kauslim 'kev ua phem', thaum lub sijhawm Pentagon thiab nws cov phooj ywg Kaus Lim Qab Teb tab tom rov hais dua kev tawm tsam thiab 'kev txiav tawm' tawm tsam North Kauslim, sawv cev rau dab tsi East Asia tus kws tshaj lij Tim Beal hu ua. "tseem ceeb ntawm kev tsis muaj tseeb." [12] Ntxiv rau qhov tsis muaj tseeb yog qhov tseeb tias qhov kev rov ua dua tshiab rau kev ntxeem tau los ntawm heels ntawm Tsev Dawb tshaj tawm urbi thiab orbi tias nws tab tom txiav txim siab ua tub rog tawm tsam North Kauslim kom coj kev hloov pauv tsoomfwv.
Xyoo 2015, North Kauslim tau thov kom ncua lawv txoj haujlwm riam phom nuclear hauv kev pauv rau Tebchaws Meskas ncua nws cov kev ua tub rog ntawm ceg av qab teb. Tsoomfwv Meskas Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ruaj Ntseg tau tso tseg qhov kev pom zoo, hais tias nws tsis tsim nyog txuas rau Tebchaws Meskas cov kev xyaum ua tub rog "ntev" rau qhov uas Washington tau thov ntawm Pyongyang, uas yog, kev tshem tawm nuclear. [13] Hloov chaw, Washington "hais kom North tso nws txoj haujlwm riam phom nuclear ua ntej ua ntej kev sib tham" tuaj yeem tshwm sim. [14]
Xyoo 2016, North Kauslim tau ua tib lub tswv yim. Tom qab ntawd Asmeskas Thawj Tswj Hwm Barack Obama tau teb tias Pyongyang yuav "yuav tsum ua kom zoo dua qhov ntawd." [15]
Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, lub siab tshaj plaws Wall Street-coj Pawg Saib Xyuas Kev Ruaj Ntseg Txawv Tebchaws tau tshaj tawm tsab ntawv tshaj tawm ua haujlwm uas tau qhia Washington tawm tsam kev tawm tsam kev sib haum xeeb nrog North Kauslim vim tias Pyongyang xav kom US cov tub rog thim tawm ntawm ceg av qab teb. Yog tias Tebchaws Meskas tau tawm ntawm ceg av qab teb ua tub rog, nws txoj haujlwm tseem ceeb txheeb ze rau Tuam Tshoj thiab Russia, uas yog, nws lub peev xwm los hem nws ob tus neeg sib tw ze ze, yuav tsis muaj zog, tsab ntawv ceeb toom ceeb toom. Yog li ntawd, Washington tau raug txiav txim kom tsis txhob cog lus rau Beijing tias txhua qhov kev pab uas nws tau muab rau hauv kev sib txuas nrog North Kauslim yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev txo cov tub rog Asmeskas nyob rau hauv ceg av qab teb. [16]
Nyuam qhuav pib lub hlis no, Tuam Tshoj tau tsa Pyongyang cov lus pom zoo ib xyoos ib zaug. "Yuav kom daws qhov teebmeem kev kub ntxhov nyob rau hauv ceg av qab teb, Tuam Tshoj [thov] tias, ua thawj kauj ruam, [North Kauslim] ncua nws cov missile thiab nuclear kev ua ub no nyob rau hauv kev pauv rau ib tug nres nyob rau hauv lub loj US - [South Kauslim] ce. Qhov kev ncua-rau-kev ncua, "tus neeg Suav tau hais tias, "tuaj yeem pab peb tawm ntawm qhov teeb meem kev nyab xeeb thiab coj cov tog neeg rov qab los rau lub rooj sib tham." [17]
Washington tsis lees txais qhov kev thov tam sim ntawd. Nyiv ib yam nkaus thiab. Tus Thawj Fwm Tsav Tebchaws Nyij Pooj rau UN tau ceeb toom rau lub ntiaj teb tias lub hom phiaj ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas yog "tsis yog khov-rau-kub tab sis kom tshem tawm North Kauslim." [18] Qhov cuam tshuam hauv qhov kev ceeb toom no yog qhov ntxiv hais tias Tebchaws Meskas yuav tsis ua haujlwm los tshem tawm nws tus kheej txoj hauv kev los cuam tshuam nrog North Kauslim (Washington dangles ib rab ntaj nuclear ntawm Damocles hla Pyongyang) thiab yuav txuas ntxiv ua txhua xyoo rov ua dua tshiab rau kev tawm tsam. .
Kev tsis kam sib tham, lossis xav kom lwm sab tam sim ntawd muab qhov uas tau thov raws li qhov xav tau ua ntej rau kev hais lus, (muab qhov kuv xav tau, ces kuv mam li tham), yog raws li txoj hauv kev rau North Kauslim tau txais los ntawm Washington thaum ntxov. Raws li 2003. Hais kom Pyongyang sib tham txog kev sib haum xeeb, ces US Secretary of State Colin Powell demurred. Powell tau piav qhia tias "Peb tsis ua cov ntawv cog lus tsis yog kev ua phem lossis kev cog lus, yam ntawm qhov xwm txheej ntawd," [19]
Raws li ib feem ntawm qhov tsis muaj tseeb tshwj xeeb tsim los ntawm Tebchaws Meskas, Russia, lossis tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nws tus thawj tswj hwm, Vladimir Putin, niaj hnub raug liam los ntawm Washington ntawm kev ua "kev ua phem," uas tau hais tias suav nrog kev ua tub rog nyob ntawm Lavxias ciam teb nrog Ukraine. Cov kev tawm dag zog no, tsis tshua muaj qhov loj ntawm US-South Kauslim kev tawm dag zog, tau sau tias "ua rau muaj kev tawm tsam" [20] los ntawm Asmeskas cov tub ceev xwm, thaum lub Pentagon-coj rehearsal rau kev ntxeem tau ntawm North Kauslim tau piav qhia raws li niaj hnub thiab "kev tiv thaiv zoo. ”
Tab sis xav txog tias Moscow tau npaj 300,000 tus tub rog Lavxias nyob hauv ciam teb Ukraine, raws li kev npaj ua haujlwm los txeeb Ukraine, tshem tawm nws cov cuab yeej tub rog, rhuav tshem nws cov tub rog, thiab tua nws tus thawj tswj hwm, ib lub lim tiam tom qab Kremlin tshaj tawm tias nws tab tom txiav txim siab ua tub rog hauv Ukraine los coj kev hloov pauv. Leej twg, tshwj tsis yog ib tus neeg ua rau muaj qhov tshwj xeeb ntawm qhov tsis muaj tseeb, yuav txhais qhov no li "kev tiv thaiv dawb huv"?
1. "THAAD, 'decapitation' raid ntxiv rau cov phooj ywg' cov kev xyaum tshiab," The Korea Herald, Peb Hlis 13, 2017; Elizabeth Shim, "Tebchaws Asmeskas, Kaus Lim Qab Teb cov kev xyaum suav nrog pab pawg neeg tua neeg bin Laden," UPI, Lub Peb Hlis 13, 2017.
2. Jonathan Cheng thiab Alastair Gale, "North Kauslim missile sim ua rau ICBM ntshai," Wall Street Journal, Lub Peb Hlis 7, 2017.
3. “S. Kaus Lim Kauslim, Tebchaws Asmeskas pib kev xyaum ua tub rog loj tshaj plaws, "KBS World, Lub Peb Hlis 5, 2017; Jun Ji-hye, "Kev xyaum ua kom tawm tsam N. Kauslim qhov chaw," Kaus Lim Kauslim, Lub Peb Hlis 13, 2017.
4. Jun Ji-hye, "Kev xyaum ntaus N. Kauslim qhov chaw," Kaus Lim Kauslim, Lub Peb Hlis 13, 2017.
5. Alastair Gale thiab Chieko Tsuneoka, "Nyiv kom nce kev siv tub rog rau tsib xyoos sib law liag," The Wall Street Journal, Kaum Ob Hlis 21, 2016.
6. Bruce Cumings, "Cov kev tawm tsam North Kauslim dhau los tshwm sim los ntawm kev ploj mus hauv Asmeskas rau kev tsis muaj tub rog," Kev ywj pheej tam sim no!, Tsib Hlis 29, 2009.
7. "THAAD, 'decapitation' raid ntxiv rau cov phooj ywg' cov kev xyaum tshiab," The Korea Herald, Peb Hlis 13, 2017.
8. "Tebchaws Asmeskas, Kaus Lim Qab Teb cov kev xyaum suav nrog pab pawg neeg tua neeg bin Laden," UPI, Lub Peb Hlis 13, 2017.
9. Ibid.
10. "US Navy SEALs los koom nrog kev sib koom ua ke hauv S. Kauslim," Yonhap, Lub Peb Hlis 13, 2017.
11. Jun Ji-hye, "Kev xyaum ntaus N. Kauslim qhov chaw," Kaus Lim Kauslim, Lub Peb Hlis 13, 2017.
12. Tim Beal, “Saib txoj hauv kev: Tsim lub hauv paus rau kev tshuaj xyuas qhov xwm txheej ntawm Kaus Lim Qab Teb ceg av qab teb (thiab ntau ntxiv ntxiv),” Korean Policy Institute, Plaub Hlis Ntuj 23, 2016.
13. Choe Sang-hun, "North Kauslim muab Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev pom zoo los txwv kev sim nuclear," The New York Times, Lub Ib Hlis 10, 2015.
14. Eric Talmadge, "Obama tso tseg NKorea lub tswv yim ntawm kev txwv kev sim nuke," Associated Press, Plaub Hlis 24, 2016.
15. Ibid.
16. "Ib qho yooj yim xaiv rau North Kauslim: Koom nrog Tuam Tshoj rau Kev Ruaj Ntseg Northeast Asia," Independent Task Force Report No. 74, Council on Foreign Relations, 2016.
17. "Tuam Tshoj txwv rau nws tus kheej-tsim lub luag haujlwm ua tus neeg nruab nrab rau Kauslim ceg av qab teb txoj haujlwm," Hankyoreh, Lub Peb Hlis 9, 2017.
18. Farnaz Fassihi, Jeremy Page thiab Chun Han Wong, "UN Security Council txiav txim siab North Kauslim kev sim missile," The Wall Street Journal, Lub Peb Hlis 8, 2017.
19. "Beijing los tuav North Kauslim tham," The New York Times, Lub Yim Hli 14, 2003.
20. Stephen Fidler, "NATO tawm tsam kom khaws 'spearhead' quab yuam los tawm tsam Russia," The Wall Street Journal, Kaum Ob Hlis 1, 2014.
