los ntawm Catherine Killough, Kaum Ib Hlis 29, 2017, Lub log.
Thawj Tswj Hwm Trump tau tsis tu ncua tsis lees paub cov ntaub ntawv sib tham ntawm North Kauslim thiab Tebchaws Meskas. Hauv nws cov lus hais ua ntej South Kauslim Lub Rooj Sib Tham, nws tau muab ib qho kev txiav txim siab los ntawm keeb kwm nyuaj ntawm kev ua tau zoo ntawm kev ua nom ua tswv: "Cov nom tswv North Kauslim tau ua raws nws cov phiaj xwm nuclear thiab foob pob hluav taws hauv kev tawm tsam ntawm txhua qhov kev lees paub, kev pom zoo thiab kev cog lus nws tau ua. rau Tebchaws Meskas thiab nws cov phoojywg. "
Nws tsis yog qhov tshiab lossis tsis yooj yim rau kev thuam North Kauslim rau nws cov ntaub ntawv sib tham tsis zoo, tab sis nws yeej tsis muaj kev phom sij ntau dua. Nyob rau hauv ib tug series ntawm tweets lub hli tas los, Trump tsis tau tsuas yog discredited yav dhau los diplomatic kev rau siab rau "ua ruam ntawm US cov neeg sib tham," tab sis kuj xaus lus nrog ceeb tsis meej pem, "Thov txim, tsuas yog ib yam yuav ua tau!"
Yog tias tsis yog diplomacy, ces qhov "ib yam" suab zoo li kev tawm tsam tub rog, ib qho kev tawm tswv yim loj uas tau rov qab los thoob plaws Washington txoj cai txawv teb chaws. Raws li Evan Osnos tau sau tseg hauv nws tsab xov xwm rau lub Tshiab Yorker, "Puas yog Pawg Thawj Kav Tebchaws Drifting Mus Ua Tsov Rog nrog North Kauslim?" lub tswv yim ntawm kev tiv thaiv kev ua tsov ua rog tau dhau los ua qhov nthuav dav heev uas txawm tias yav dhau los Tus Thawj Fwm Tsav Tebchaws ywj pheej tau lees paub, "yog tias nws nyob hauv tsoomfwv hnub no nws yuav txhawb nqa tawm tsam North Kauslim, txhawm rau tiv thaiv nws los ntawm kev tawm tsam rau Asmeskas."
Rau cov neeg nrhiav kev tiv thaiv kev ua tsov rog uas tuaj yeem ua rau ntau lab tus neeg raug tsim txom hauv Kaus Lim Qab Teb, tsis muaj kev xaiv tub rog. Tab sis rau ntau tus Democrats, kev txhawb nqa kev ua nom ua tswv ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev tsis muaj zog. Tsis xav tsis thoob, kev ntsuas nyiaj txiag uas cuam tshuam txoj kab ntawm kev rau txim thiab tsis yog-kev ua tsov ua rog tau txais kev txhawb nqa dav tshaj plaws hauv bipartisan.
Raws li ib puag ncig kev nom kev tswv no, kho cov keeb kwm tsis sib haum xeeb ntawm Asmeskas-North Kauslim kev sib tham yog qhov tseem ceeb-tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyiam saib kev hais lus raws li kev txaus siab, lossis kev cog lus raws li kev pom zoo, muaj zog dua. Feem ntau ntawm qhov ntawd tshwm sim los ntawm txoj hauv kev uas cov neeg thuam tau ua rau thawj zaug US-coj ob tog kev pom zoo nrog North Kauslim thiab nws qhov kev sib tsoo thaum kawg.
Qhov Deal uas Froze North Kauslim Nukes
Xyoo 1994, Tebchaws Meskas thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb tau nyob rau ntawm kev ua tsov rog. Nws yog thawj zaug uas tsis paub txog kev tswj hwm sab qaum teb ntawm 38th parallel hem mus rau nuclear. Tom qab tshem tawm tag nrho cov neeg soj ntsuam thoob ntiaj teb los ntawm lub teb chaws, North Kauslim tau npaj kom tshem tawm rau lub foob pob 'tus nqi ntawm riam phom-qib plutonium los ntawm cov roj rods hauv nws lub zog tshawb fawb Yongbyon.
Lub sijhawm ntawd, Thawj Tswj Hwm Bill Clinton tau txiav txim siab ua tub rog, suav nrog kev npaj ua kev phais mob rau North Kauslim cov chaw nuclear. Ntau tus ntawm nws cov thawj coj tau ua xyem xyav tias lawv tuaj yeem yaum cov neeg North Kauslim los ntawm kev tsim riam phom nuclear. Raws li Assistant Secretary of Defense rau International Security Ashton Carter hais tias, "Peb tsis yog, los ntawm ib qho twg, ntseeg siab tias peb tuaj yeem hais lus lawv tawm ntawm kev ua qhov ntawd."
Txawm li cas los xij, raws li yav dhau los Secretary of Defense William Perry nco qab, qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev ua tsov rog Kaus Lim Kauslim thib ob tau yuam cov thawj coj kom ua raws txoj hauv kev diplomatic. Ib lub rooj sib tham ntawm yav dhau los Thawj Tswj Hwm Jimmy Carter thiab North Kauslim tus thawj coj Kim Il Sung tau ua rau muaj kev sib tham ob tog loj uas tau ua tiav nrog US-North Kauslim Pom Zoo Lub Kaum Hli 21, 1994.
Nyob rau hauv qhov kev pom zoo no, North Kauslim tau pom zoo kom khov thiab thaum kawg rhuav tshem nws cov graphite-moderated reactors hauv kev pauv rau roj thiab ob lub teeb-dej-resistant reactors. Cov reactors no tuaj yeem tsim lub zog, tab sis tsis tuaj yeem, xyaum hais lus, siv los ua riam phom nuclear.
Tau ze li ntawm kaum xyoo, Tebchaws Meskas tau txhawb nqa txoj kab ncaj nraim, qhib kev sib txuas lus nrog kev tsis txaus ntseeg thiab tsis muaj kev nyab xeeb. Qhov kev sib koom ua ke no ua rau nws muaj peev xwm ua rau ob tus neeg tawm tsam tau cog lus rau kev pom zoo nrog cov txiaj ntsig tseem ceeb: North Kauslim tau tso tseg tsis tsim plutonium rau yim xyoo. Raws li yav dhau los US Ambassador rau South Kauslim Thomas Hubbard xaus, Daim Ntawv Pom Zoo Pom Zoo "ua pov thawj tias tsis zoo tag nrho ... Tab sis nws tau tiv thaiv North Kauslim los ntawm kev tsim ntau li 100 riam phom nuclear los ntawm tam sim no."
Hmoov tsis zoo, cov kev ua tiav no tau raug cuam tshuam los ntawm Kev Pom Zoo Ua Haujlwm qhov kev sib tsoo, qhov uas "yooj yim" tau dhau los ua "ua tsis tiav." Tab sis hais tias qhov kev pom zoo ua tsis tau zoo dhau los txhais tau tias qhov kev vam meej tuaj yeem cuam tshuam nrog lub teb chaws nqa ntau lub hnab ntim keeb kwm zoo li North Kauslim. Kev tshaj tawm xov xwm tsis zoo, suav nrog kev tshem tawm qhov tsis txaus ntawm Asmeskas sab ntawm qhov kev pom zoo, yog ib feem ntawm kev liam. Tab sis hawkish cov neeg saib xyuas, uas tau siv qhov kev pom zoo ntev los ua ib qho kev ceeb toom ntawm kev txaus siab rau kev ywj pheej, feem ntau yog qhov txhaum.
Ob lub tebchaws United States thiab North Kauslim tau ua ib feem ntawm Txoj Haujlwm Pom Zoo Kev Sib Tham, tab sis qhov kev lees paub tias North Kauslim dag tsis pom qhov tseeb. Tsis ntev tom qab Clinton tus thawj coj tau sib tham txog qhov kev pom zoo, Republicans tau txais kev tswj hwm ntawm Congress, ua rau "tsis muaj kev xaiv nom tswv," raws li Tus thawj kws sib tham Robert Gallucci, thiab ua rau muaj kev ncua tseem ceeb hauv kev xa khoom ntawm Asmeskas cov luag haujlwm.
Congressional kev tawm tsam tau nce siab dua hauv xyoo 1998 thaum muaj kev iab liam tias North tau zais ib qho chaw hauv av hauv av ntawm Kumchang-ri. Hloov chaw ntawm kev ua txhaum txoj cai, Clinton cov thawj coj tau tshaj tawm nws cov kev txhawj xeeb ncaj qha rau North Kauslim thiab, nrhiav kev cawm tau qhov kev pom zoo, sib tham txog qhov kev pom zoo tshiab uas tso cai rau Tebchaws Meskas tsis tu ncua kev tshuaj xyuas ntawm qhov chaw xav tias, qhov twg nws tsis pom muaj pov thawj ntawm kev ua haujlwm nuclear.
Qhov kev tawm tsam no tau txuas ntxiv mus txawm tias North Kauslim txoj haujlwm ua ntej missile ua suab ceeb toom tshiab. Tom qab North Kauslim tau tshaj tawm lub foob pob hluav taws ntev tshaj Nyij Pooj xyoo 1998, Clinton cov thawj coj tau ua haujlwm rau pab pawg me ntawm tsoomfwv sab hauv thiab sab nraud nrog rau North Kauslim Txoj Cai Tshuaj Xyuas uas yuav suav nrog cov hom phiaj tau teev tseg hauv Daim Ntawv Pom Zoo Pom Zoo.
Yav tas los Tus Thawj Fwm Tsav Saib Xyuas Kev Tiv Thaiv William Perry tau koom tes nrog tsoomfwv ntawm North Kauslim, Kaus Lim Qab Teb, Tuam Tshoj, thiab Nyij Pooj hauv qhov uas hu ua Perry Process. Ntau qhov kev sib tham tau xaus rau xyoo 1999 nrog rau tsab ntawv tshaj tawm uas tau hais txog cov lus pom zoo rau Tebchaws Meskas kom ua raws li qhov tseeb raug ncua thiab qhov kawg tshem tawm ntawm North lub nuclear thiab cov kev ua ub no ntev. Nyob rau hauv tas li ntawd, pawg neeg saib xyuas txoj cai tau pom tias Tebchaws Meskas yuav tsum ua cov kauj ruam los daws cov kev txhawj xeeb ntawm North thiab tsim kom muaj kev sib raug zoo.
North Kauslim teb tau zoo los ntawm tsis tsuas yog pom zoo kom khov nws cov kev sim missile rau lub sijhawm ntawm kev sib tham, tab sis kuj tau xa nws tus kws tshaj lij tub rog laus mus rau Washington los tham txog cov ntsiab lus ntawm Perry qhov kev thov nrog Thawj Tswj Hwm Clinton. Tus Thawj Fwm Tsav Tebchaws Madeleine Albright tau lees paub qhov kev mus ntsib los ntawm kev mus rau Pyongyang rau kev sib tham nrog Kim Jong Il tom qab lub hli.
Txawm li cas los xij, lub zog rau qhov qub Tus Kws Pab Tswv Yim Tshwj Xeeb rau Thawj Tswj Hwm Wendy Sherman hu ua ib lub tswv yim "tantalizingly kaw" nres lub hlis tom ntej nrog rau kev xaiv tsa ntawm George W. Bush. Tom qab ntawd-Secretary of State Colin Powell tau hais tias North Kauslim txoj cai yuav txuas ntxiv qhov twg Clinton tawm mus, tab sis Bush, uas tau txiav txim siab tshem tawm tag nrho cov kev sib tham nrog North Kauslim rau ob xyoos tom ntej, overrued nws.
Cov thawj coj ntawm Bush tau tawm mus deb ntawm txoj kev kawm diplomatic uas Clinton cov thawj coj tau mob siab rau tswj. Bush ntxiv North Kauslim rau nws triad ntawm "axis ntawm kev phem" xeev. Dick Cheney tsis lees paub kev nom kev tswv rau kev hloov pauv tsoomfwv, hais tias, "Peb tsis sib tham nrog kev phem. Peb swb nws." Tom qab ntawd-Tus Thawj Fwm Tsav Tebchaws ntawm Lub Xeev rau Kev Tswj Xyuas Kev Ruaj Ntseg John Bolton tau siv cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm txog kev xav tias tsis pub lwm tus paub txog uranium txhawm rau tua qhov kev pom zoo uas nws tsis nyiam. Hauv nws tus kheej cov lus, "Qhov no yog lub rauj kuv tau nrhiav los rhuav tshem Txoj Cai Pom Zoo."
Thaum kawg, cov thawj coj ntawm Bush tau liam tias ib tus neeg ua haujlwm hauv North Kauslim tau lees paub tias muaj qhov xav tias muaj uranium enrichment program. North Kauslim tsis kam lees qhov kev lees paub, uas ua rau muaj kev sib liam rov qab tias txhua sab tau ua txhaum txoj cai. Hloov chaw ntawm kev ua haujlwm kom kov yeej kev tsis ntseeg siab, Tebchaws Meskas tau thim tawm ntawm qhov kev pom zoo xyoo 2002.
Qhov Pom Zoo Framework Redux
Bush qhov tsis kam koom nrog North Kauslim tau rov qab los haunt nws cov thawj coj hauv xyoo 2003. North Kauslim tau rov ua nws txoj haujlwm plutonium sai sai thiab tshaj tawm tias nws muaj riam phom nuclear. Cia siab tias yuav tsum rov nkag mus rau kev sib tham, Tebchaws Meskas tau koom nrog Tuam Tshoj, Russia, Nyiv, thiab Kaus Lim Qab Teb hauv Kev Sib Tham Rau Lub Rooj Sib Tham.
Ob peb qhov kev sib tham tau ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam ob xyoos tom qab nrog 2005 Cov Lus Cog Tseg, uas tau cog lus rau sab qaum teb kom tso tseg "tag nrho cov riam phom nuclear thiab cov phiaj xwm nuclear uas twb muaj lawm." Tab sis tsis ntev dhau los muaj rau lub tog tau tshaj tawm qhov kev pom zoo tshaj US Treasury froze North Kauslim cov cuab tam hauv Macau bank, Banco Delta Asia.
Rau kev coj noj coj ua ntawm North Kauslim, chob lawv txoj kev nkag mus rau $ 25 lab hauv peev yog qhov ua txhaum loj thiab tau hais tias Tebchaws Meskas tsis hnyav txog kev cog lus. Txawm tias cov neeg ua haujlwm rau kev tswj hwm, xws li tus thawj saib xyuas kev sib tham Ambassador Christopher Hill, pom qhov ua raws li kev sim "kom tsis txhob muaj kev sib tham tag nrho."
Txawm li cas los xij US Treasury lub hom phiaj, qhov khov kho tau cuam tshuam rau xyoo dhau los ntawm kev khwv tau nyuaj los txhim kho kev ntseeg siab. North Kauslim tau ua pauj rau xyoo 2006 los ntawm tsis tsuas yog sim tua yim lub foob pob hluav taws xwb, tab sis kuj ua rau nws cov khoom siv nuclear thawj zaug.
Tebchaws Asmeskas tsuas yog nyuam qhuav khaws cia cov kev sib tham los ntawm kev tshem qhov khov thiab tshem tawm North Kauslim los ntawm Lub Xeev Cov Neeg Txhawb Pab Txhawb Kev Ua Phem rau hauv 2007. Rov qab los, North Kauslim tau lees txais cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas nuclear thiab ua rau nws lub zog Yongbyon ua haujlwm tsis taus, tawg lub cua txias ntauwd hauv qhov kev tshwm sim hauv TV. Tab sis kev puas tsuaj txaus tau ua tiav uas los ntawm lub sijhawm tsis sib haum xeeb tshiab tau tshwm sim los ntawm kev ntsuas pov thawj, Rau Lub Rooj Sib Tham Sib Tham tau tsaws ntawm qhov tsis txaus ntseeg thiab ua tsis tiav mus rau theem kawg ntawm kev rhuav tshem North Kauslim txoj haujlwm riam phom nuclear.
Cov Limitation ntawm Strategic Patience
Zoo li kev tswj hwm ua ntej nws, Thawj Tswj Hwm Obama tau qeeb rau kev sib tham nrog North Kauslim. Txawm hais tias Obama tau hais meej meej los ntawm qhov pib tias nws yuav coj txoj hauv kev tshaj tawm xov xwm thiab "ntev tes" rau cov tswjfwm "yuav ua rau koj lub nrig," North Kauslim poob qis rau nws cov npe ntawm txoj cai tseem ceeb txawv teb chaws.
Hloov chaw, txoj cai ntawm "lub tswv yim ua siab ntev" sawv rau txhua lub hom phiaj los coj North Kauslim rov qab los rau lub rooj sib tham. Txawm hais tias lub qhov rooj rau kev hais lus tseem tab tom qhib, Tebchaws Meskas tau nrhiav kev rau txim thiab kev tawm tsam tsis zoo li Trump cov thawj coj tam sim no. North Kauslim tau thim rov qab nws qhov kev tawm tsam, suav nrog kev sim nuclear zaum ob thiab ob qhov kev sib ntaus sib tua tuag ntawm nws ciam teb nrog Kaus Lim Qab Teb.
Nws tsis yog txog xyoo 2011 uas Obama cov thawj coj tau rov pib tham txog kev tshem tawm nuclear. Tom qab lub sijhawm luv luv tom qab kev tuag ntawm Kim Jong Il, ob lub tebchaws tau tshaj tawm "Leap Day" kev cog lus thaum Lub Ob Hlis 2012. North Kauslim tau pom zoo rau ncua sijhawm rau nws qhov kev sim phom ntev thiab nuclear sib pauv rau 240,000 metric tons ntawm cov khoom noj. .
Kaum rau hnub tom qab, North Kauslim tshaj tawm nws txoj kev npaj yuav tso lub satellite mus rau qhov chaw. Tebchaws Meskas tau lees paub tias qhov kev tshaj tawm no yuav ua txhaum cov lus pom zoo, thaum North Kauslim thov, "Lub satellite launches tsis suav nrog nyob rau hauv qhov ntev-ntev missile launches" thiab ua raws li nws cov kev npaj.
Cov thawj coj tam sim ntawd tshem tawm qhov kev pom zoo, ib qho kev xav tsis meej uas tau muab yav dhau los Asmeskas kev siv zog los daws cov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev siv missile technologies. Piv txwv li, rau ntau xyoo lub tebchaws United States tsis kam lees South Kauslim thov kom txuas ntxiv ntawm lawv cov foob pob hluav taws tawm ntawm kev ntshai tias nws yuav pib muaj kev sib tw riam phom hauv cheeb tsam. Thaum muaj kev kub ntxhov loj zuj zus, Tebchaws Asmeskas tau pom zoo hauv xyoo 2001 uas nthuav dav cov haujlwm ntawm South Kauslim cov haujlwm missile thaum suav nrog cov kev txwv tshwj xeeb ntawm nws qhov kev tso tawm qhov chaw, xws li kev siv roj ua kua.
Hloov chaw ntawm kev rov mus xyuas qhov kev pom zoo kom paub meej qhov txawv ntawm qhov ua tau raws li lub satellite lossis foob pob hluav taws, Tebchaws Meskas cia kev sib tham nrog North Kauslim, ib zaug ntxiv, poob rau txoj kev.
Txoj Kev Xaiv Tsuas
Yog tias Bush tau khaws Daim Ntawv Pom Zoo Pom Zoo, yog tias cov neeg tawv tawv tsis tau ua phem rau Six Party Talks, thiab yog tias Obama tau qhia meej cov ntsiab lus ntawm Leap Day deal, North Kauslim yuav tsis yog npau suav phem nuclear uas tuav lub tebchaws United States thiab nws cov phoojywg niaj hnub no.
Tab sis cov lus cog tseg tawg thiab hlawv choj tsis muaj kev zam txim rau kev tso tseg diplomacy. Muaj ntau cov lus qhia nyob rau hauv cov kab nrib pleb ntawm cov ntaub ntawv sib tham tsis sib xws uas tsim nyog muab rho tawm, suav nrog qhov xav tau los hais txog North Kauslim kev txhawj xeeb txog kev nyab xeeb lub taub hau thiab qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev sib koom tes hauv Asmeskas.
Tseem muaj qhov qhib rau kev sib haum xeeb nrog North Kauslim, tab sis Trump hem tias yuav kaw nws txhua zaus nws txo qis tus nqi ntawm kev sib tham. Raws li txhua tus thawj tswj hwm txij li thaum Clinton tau nkag siab, yog tias lwm txoj hauv kev nrog North Kauslim yog kev ua tsov ua rog, txhua qhov kev xaiv nom tswv yuav tsum tau tshawb nrhiav kom tiav. Ntau lab lub neej dai hauv qhov sib npaug.
Catherine Killough yog Roger L. Hale Fellow ntawm Plowshares Fund, lub hauv paus kev ruaj ntseg thoob ntiaj teb. Nws tau txais nws MA hauv Asian Studies los ntawm Lub Tsev Kawm Ntawv Kev Pabcuam Txawv Tebchaws ntawm Georgetown University. Ua raws li Twitter @catkillough. Yees duab: Jimmy Carter thiab Kim Il Sung.
