Los ntawm Gareth Porter, Lub Ob Hlis 9, 2018
Los ntawm Tseeb
Daim ntawv cog lus rau kev koom tes ntawm North thiab South Kauslim nyob rau hauv Olympics muab ib ncua ntxiv nyob rau hauv lub drumbeat ntawm kev ua tsov rog kev hem los ntawm postponing US-South Kauslim cov tub rog ua haujlwm kom txog rau thaum tom qab Lub Caij Ua Si no tiav lawm. Tab sis cov nyiaj them tiag tiag los ntawm Olympics détente yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm tsoom fwv ntawm South Kauslim Thawj Tswj Hwm Moon Jae-hauv thiab North Kauslim cov Kim Jong Un tuaj yeem tau txais kev pom zoo ntawm kev sib hloov ntawm US-Republic of Korea (ROK) cov tub rog ua haujlwm rau hauv North Korea nuclear thiab missile xeem khov.
Cov neeg nyob hauv Kauslim tau qhib txoj hau kev rau kev sib haum xeeb ntawm Teb Chaws Asmeskas thiab North Kauslim dhau los ntawm Pyongyang cov kev pab cuam rau nuclear thiab xov tooj cua thiab qhov kev txiav txim siab zaum kawg ntawm Kauslim Teb-yog Donald Trump txaus siab los mus cuam tshuam xws li tawm ntawm lub ntsoog. Tab sis nws tsis yog Kim Jong Un uas tau tuav lub hom phiaj ntawm diplomatic qhib txoj kev tawm ntawm lub ntsoog. Lub hli Jae-in tau ua hauj lwm los mus ua kom muaj kev sib haum xeeb vim nws tau tsa ua tus thawj tswj hwm South Kauslim zaum kawg Tsib Hlis.
Lub hli tswv yim-uas tsis tau raug tshaj tawm hauv US xov xwm xov xwm-yog thawj zaug 10 hnub ua ntej lub hli yuav tsum tuaj txog Lub Xya hli ntuj 29 lub rooj sib tham nrog Trump hauv Washington, DC hli tus kws pab tshwj xeeb ntawm kev koom ua ke, txawv teb chaws thiab kev ruaj ntseg hauv teb chaws, Lub hli Chung-in, nthuav tawm lub tswv yim ntawm lub rooj sab laj ntawm Wilson Center hauv Washington raws li ib tug kev xav ntawm Thawj Tswj Hwm Moon txoj kev xav. Moon Chung-in said ib tus thawj coj lub tswv yim yog tias South Kauslim thiab US "yuav sib tham txog kev txo cov Kauslim Teb Chaws Asmeskas-ua tub rog ua haujlwm yog tias North Kauslim tso nws cov nuclear riam phom thiab missile cov dej num." Nws hais ntxiv tias Thawj Tswj Hwm Moon " peb yuav txawm txo Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam uas tau muab faib rau Kauslim Teb Peninsula [thaum lub sijhawm]. "
Hais txog cov kws tshawb fawb South Korean xov tom qab kev sib tham, Moon Chung-hais tau hais tias "tsis tas yuav npaj xa cov tswv lagluam cov khoom muaj nqi xws li cov neeg tsav nkoj thiab nuclear submarines thaum Lub Tswv Yim Tseem Ceeb thiab Foal Dav dawb hau." Cov neeg qhia tub rog siv lub sij hawm " xa mus rau lub nkoj thiab cov nkoj muaj peev xwm ntawm kev xa cov riam phom nuclear, uas North Kauslim tau ntev tsis txaus siab.
Lub hli Chung-hauv pom tias cov cuab yeej "cov khoom muaj nqis," uas tsis tau koom nrog kev sib koom tes ua ntej 2015, tawm ntawm kev sib koom ua ke, sib cav hais tias lawv ntxiv tau muab ua qhov yuam kev. "Txij li Teb Chaws Asmeskas tau npaj rau nws cov peev xwm nrhiav tau," nws hais tias, "North Kauslim zoo li tau teb rau qhov no vim nws xav tias Teb Chaws Asmeskas yuav tawm tsam yog tias North qaum muaj kev qaug zog."
Moon Chung-in tau hais rau South Korean reporters tom qab ntawd nws tau qhia nws lub tswv yim, uas tsis yog txoj cai ntawm tsoomfwv, tab sis hais tias "nws yuav tsis yuam kev" hais tias Thawj Tswj Hwm Lub hli tau pom zoo nrog lawv. Thiab ib tug neeg laus hauv lub hli ua haujlwm uas xav hais tias tsis muaj npe nyob rau hauv kev sib tham nrog cov neeg sau xov xwm tsis kam lees hais tias lub tswv yim sib tham los ntawm Moon Chung-in yog tus saib xyuas los ntawm Thawj Tswj Hwm Moon, tab sis hais tias qhov chaw ua hauj lwm tau hais rau Chung tias nws daim ntawv "yuav tsis pab rau kev sib raug zoo ntawm South Korea thiab Tebchaws Meskas."
Lwm cov duab nrog ties rau tsoom fwv tshiab, veteran diplomat Shin Bong-Kil, hais txog qhov tib lub tswv yim qub ntawm lub rooj sab laj nyob hauv Seoul thaum lub hli dhau los. Txuas, tus thawj coj ntawm Inter-Kauslim Txoj Cai Kev Ua Haujlwm ntawm ROK Txawv Tebchaws Ua Haujlwm ntau xyoo thiab ib tug tswv cuab ntawm pab pawg neeg lub diplomatic lub hli tswj xyuas tau xa mus rau kev piav qhia nws txoj cai rau Suav tsoom fwv, tau rov qab los ntawm ib lub rooj sib tham hauv Stockholm nyob rau hauv Sab qaum teb Kauslim txawv teb chaws cov hauj lwm tseem koom tes. Raws li nws tau hnov ntawm qhov kev sib tham, Shin sib cav hais tias muab kev tshem tawm xws li cov ntsiab lus los ntawm kev sib koom tes Key Resolve thiab Foal Eagle kev ncaws pob yuav muab nws tau hu ua "loj leverage" kom North Korean txais lub nuclear thiab missile xeem khov.
Tib lub lim tiam uas Moon Chung-in ua rau pej xeem pom, Thawj Tswj Hwm Moon nws tus kheej tau sib cav tham nrog CBS News "Kuv ntseeg hais tias thawj zaug peb yuav tsum tau vie rau ib tug khov ntawm North Kauslim cov nuclear thiab missile cov kev pab cuam."
Nws tabtom tawm tswv yim xav kom hloov qhov "khov dej khov rau khov" los ntawm Beijing, Pyongyang thiab Moscow, uas yuav tsum tau ua tiav tagnrho rau US-South Kauslim ua haujlwm rau kev khov ntawm North Korea nuclear thiab missile kuaj-kev xaiv Cov tub rog Asmeskas tau tso tseg.
Ob tug kws tshawb fawb American Kauslim twb tau ua lawm tsim lawv cov tswv yim ntxaws rau downsizing cov kev ua si US-ROK. Joel Wit, tus kws pab tswv yim qub tshaj plaws rau Ambassador Robert Gallucci hauv kev sib sab laj ntawm qhov kev pom zoo-uas tam sim no khiav lub website 38 North, teem rau Qaum Teb Kauslim-thiab William McKinney, tus thawj coj ntawm lub East Far East hauv pawg nom tswv Cov tub ceev xwm lub hauv paus ntawm Pentagon, tau sib cav hais tias cov kev faj seeb flights ntawm nuclear-lub peev xwm thiab lwm yam "cov cuab yeej tawm tswv yim" tsis tsim nyog rau cov tub rog Asmeskas cov hom phiaj.
Raws li McKinney tau sau tseg rau hauv kev sib tham nrog kuv, Teb Chaws Asmeskas flights simulating nuclear nres rau sab qaum teb uas siv dual lub peev xwm dav dav "feem ntau sab nraum qhov kev ncaws pob." Lub hom phiaj ntawm cov kev faj seeb, McKinney tau hais tias, "yuav tsum yog kev muaj peev xwm, thiab nws yuav raug cav tias nws twb tau qhia lawm. "
Ntawm lwm cov kev hloov, McKinney thiab Wit tau npaj siab hais tias kev sib koom ua ke nrog US-ROK Ulchi-Freedom Guard tus neeg npaj yuav pib thaum lub Yim Hli yuav raug hloov los ntawm kev ua haujlwm South Kauslim ua haujlwm uas yuav raug saib xyuas los ntawm cov tub ceev xwm hauv Asmeskas, thiab tias Foal Eagle exercise, uas yog kev ua haujlwm ntawm cov nav hia thiab cov cua ua haujlwm, yuav tsum "ua lub qab ntug" -tsis nrug deb ntawm lub Yav Tsav Xwm Tsav Xwm Kauslim.
Lub hli pib ntsiag to nws rooj plaub nrog Trump cov thawj coj, hais tias Ulchi Freedom Tus saib xyuas tau nqa tawm tsis muaj "cov cuab yeej cuab tam", thiab txawm hais tias nws tau mus tsis paub, Tebchaws Asmeskas cov lus txib hauv South Kauslim tso lus pom zoo. Lub South Korean xov xwm TV SBS qhia txog Lub Yim Hli. 18 tias Tebchaws Asmeskas tau tso tseg qhov kev npaj los ntawm ob lub teb chaws Asmeskas cov tub lag luam, ib lub nuclear submarine thiab xaiv tsa bomber raws li ib feem ntawm qhov kev txiav txim ntawm lub hli xav.
Lub caij ntuj sov Olympics muab lub hli nrog lub tswv yim rau thawb nws cov txheej txheem diplomatic ntxiv. Nws tshaj tawm rau Dec. 19 uas nws tau thov kom cov tub rog Asmeskas rov qab sib koom ua ke rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis mus txog rau lub Peb Hlis mus txog tom qab Olympics, muaj feem xyuam ntawm North Kauslim tsis ua tiav kev sim. Tab sis ua ntej ib tug neeg tuaj txog teb chaws As Mes Lis Kas tuaj yeem tuaj, Kim Jong Un tau teb nrog nws tus kheej lub koom haum nom tswv. Nyob rau hauv nws txhua xyoo Xyoo Tshiab Hnub Kws hais lus, Kim hu rau dab tsi nws hu ua "détente" nrog South Kauslim nyob rau hauv thiaj li yuav "yooj yim tub rog tensions nruab nrab ntawm sab qaum teb thiab sab qab teb."
Tsoom fwv North Kauslim hais kom lub hli Hli hais tias "tsum tsis txhob cuam tshuam tag nrho cov kev siv cov cua ntsawj uas lawv tau ua nrog sab nraud" thiab "tsis txhob ncaim hauv nuclear kev sib ntaus sib tua thiab cov rog rog hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas." Qhov kev tsim, qhov txawv ntawm kev xyaum ua tub rog thiab kev xyaum nuv ntses , pom tias Kim tau kos npe rau Pyongyang txoj kev txaus siab rau kev sib sab laj txog kev pom zoo hauv cov kab uas lub hli cov neeg pab tswv yim tau nthuav dav tawm rau lub hli dhau los.
Lub hli tau teb nrog rau kev caw mus rau Qaum Teb Kauslim rau kev sib tham ntawm Jan. 9 txog kev koom tes nrog Olympic thiab pab tub rog tensions, pib txoj haujlwm ntawm North-South nuclear diplomacy.
Tsis ceeb, cov neeg tawm xov xwm tau ntsia askance ntawm lub hli ntawm North North diplomacy. New York Times zaj dab neeg rau Kim's New Xyoo chaw nyob tau hais tias pawg thawj coj hauv North Kiv tau ntse ua si ntawm Thawj Tswj Hwm Lub Hlis tiv thaiv cov thawj coj ntawm Trump, tab sis qhov tseeb, South Kauslim tsoom fwv to taub hais tias qhov pib ua haujlwm tsis tuaj yeem tsis muaj Trump cov nyiaj txhawb nqa.
Cov rooj sib tham hauv North-South uas tau pib yuav rov los ua ke nrog rau ib qho kev sib haum xeeb rau kev hloov ntawm kev sib koom tes ua tub rog rau qhov rov qab los ntawm kev sib tsoo ntawm North Korea txoj kev ntaus tswv yim kev sib tw. Cov lus sib tham no yuav siv sij hawm ntev tshaj li Olympics, uas yuav tsum tau ncua ntxiv ntawm US-ROK cov kev ua uas feem ntau pib thaum lub Peb Hlis. Thaum South Kauslim Tebchaws Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-Hwa tshaj tawm rau Jan. 25 hais tias ib tug neeg raug ntaus thawj hauv North Korea thiab "nuclear" lub hom phiaj yog "tsis tsim nyog" rau ROK tsoom fwv, nws tsis yeem hais tias lub South yuav rov pib dua cov kev xyaum tom qab Olympics.
Cov lus tshaj tawm qhia txog ntawm qhov tseeb hais tias tsis pub khiav haujlwm rau Trump cov thawj coj los yog cov xov xwm neeg tawm xov xwm tau lees paub: Lub Teb Chaws Asmeskas Kaus-Kaus-Kaus-Kaus-kob thaus suav tias pib kev sib khom lus nrog North Kauslim raws li siab ua-zoo siab tshaj qhov ua haujlwm ua tub rog uas tau ua tiav North Korea xyoo thiab tshwj xeeb tshaj yog txij thaum 2015.
THAUM
Gareth Porter yog tus muaj kev ywj pheej tshawb nrhiav neeg sau xov xwm, tus kws sau keeb kwm thiab tus sau uas tau pab txog Asmeskas kev tsov rog thiab kev cuam tshuam hauv Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Yemen thiab Syria txij li xyoo 2004 thiab yog xyoo 2012 tus yeej ntawm Gellhorn nqi zog rau sau xov xwm. Nws phau ntawv nyuam qhuav tawm tshiab no yog "Raug teebmeem ntsoog: Tsis muaj dab neeg hais txog qhov Iran Nuclear Ntshai" (Tsuas yog World Books, 2014).
