Na Nicolas JS Davies, Ianuali 30, 2020
ʻUmikūmālua mau makahiki ma hope o ko ke kaua kaua ʻana o ʻAmelika i ka Iraq, ua maopopo ka hapanui o ʻAmelika he kaua ʻona ʻole ia i hoʻokumu ʻia no ka hoʻopunipuni e pili ana i nā "mea kaua o ka luku nui ʻana." Akā ke hoʻoweliweli nei kā mākou aupuni e kau iā mākou i kahi kaua ma Iran me ka aneane like. "Hoʻopunipuni nui" e pili ana i kahi papahana kaua nuklea e noho nei, i hoʻokumu ʻia i ka ʻike kālai politika mai nā hui CIA like ʻole i hana i ka pūnaewele pūnaewele wahaheʻe i ke kūleʻa o US i Iraq i 2003.
I ka makahiki 2002-3, ua hoʻomau hou nā luna o ka US a me nā pūʻulu pāpāʻāina ʻo Iraq i kahi mea kaua o nā mea luku nui i hoʻoweliweli nui i ka honua. Ua hana ka CIA i nā reams o ka ʻike wahaheʻe e kākoʻo i ka neʻe ʻana i ke kaua, a ua koho ʻo cherry i nā moʻolelo hoʻopunipuni hoʻopunipuni loa no ke Kākauʻolelo o ka Mokuʻāina. ʻO Colin Powell e hōʻike i ka UN Security Council ma Pepeluali 5th 2003. I Kēkēmapa 2002, ʻo Alan Foley, ke poʻo o ka CIA's Weapon Intelligence, Nonproliferation and Arms Control Center (WINPAC), hai i kona limahana, "Inā makemake ka pelekikena e hele i ke kaua, ʻo kā mākou hana i ka ʻike i ka naʻauao e ʻae ai iā ia e hana pēlā."
ʻO Paul Pillar, kahi luna CIA ʻo ia ka National Intelligence Officer no ka Hikina Hikina a me ʻAkia Hema, i kōkua i ka hoʻomākaukau ʻana i kahi palapala 25 ʻaoʻao i hāʻawi ʻia i nā lālā o ka ʻAhaʻōlelo ma ke ʻano he "hōʻuluʻulu manaʻo" o ka National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) ma Ilaka. Akā ua kākau ʻia ka palapala i mau mahina ma mua o ka NIE i koi ai e hōʻuluʻulu a loaʻa nā ʻōlelo maikaʻi ʻaʻole i loaʻa ma ka NIE, e like me ka CIA i ʻike ai he 550 mau pūnaewele kikoʻī ma ʻIraka kahi i mālama ʻia ai nā mea kaua kemika a me nā meaola. ʻO ka hapa nui o nā lālā i heluhelu wale i kēia hōʻuluʻulu hoʻopunipuni, ʻaʻole ka NIE maoli, a ua koho makapō ʻia no ke kaua. E like me Ua ʻōlelo ʻia ʻo Pillar ma hope i PBS's Ka mua, "ʻO ke kumu ʻo ka hoʻoikaika ʻana i ka hihia no ka hele e kaua aku me ka lehulehu o ʻAmelika. He kūpono paha no ka ʻoihana ʻike e hoʻopuka i nā pepa no ia mea? ʻAʻole wau e noʻonoʻo i kēia, a ke kala nei au i ka loaʻa ʻana o kēia hana. "
Ua kūkulu ʻia ʻo WINPAC i ka makahiki 2001 e pani i ka CIA's Nonproliferation Center a i ʻole NPC (1991-2001), kahi o nā limahana o hoʻokahi haneli CIA mea hōʻiliʻili i hōʻiliʻili ʻia i nā hōʻike e pili ana i ka hoʻomohala ʻia ʻana o nā mea nukelea, kemika a me nā meaola lāʻau e kākoʻo i ke kaua ʻikepili a US, nā hoʻopaʻi a me ka hoʻololi hope loa ʻana o ke aupuni. nā kulekele kūʻē iā ʻIraka, ʻIrana, Kōlea ʻĀkau, Libya a me nā ʻenemi ʻē aʻe o US.
Hoʻohana ʻo WINPAC i ka ukali o ka US, ka nānā uila a me nā pūnaewele mākaʻikaʻi kūwaho e hana i nā mea e hānai ai i nā ʻoihana UN e like me UNSCOM, UNMOVIC, ka Hui no ka Prohibition of Chemical Weapon (OPCW) a me ka International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), ka mea i hoʻopiʻi ʻia me ke kiaʻi nei i ka hoʻolaha ʻole ʻana o nā mea nukelea, Nine Inch a me nā meaola olaola. Ua mālama nā mea a CIA i nā mākaʻi a me nā loiloi o kēia ʻoihana me ka kahe o nā palapala, nā kiʻi ukali a me nā koi a ka poʻe pio mai aneane 30 mau makahiki. Akā mai ka wā o Iraq i luku ai i kāna mau mea kaua i pāpā ʻia i ka makahiki 1991, ʻaʻole i loaʻa iā lākou kahi hōʻike e hōʻoiaʻiʻo ana ua hana ʻo Iraq a me ʻIraka paha i nā ala e kiʻi ai i nā mea kaua nukelea, kemika a meaola paha.
Ua haʻi aku ʻo UNMOVIC a me IAEA i ka UN Security Council i ka makahiki 2002-3 ʻaʻole hiki iā lākou ke ʻike i kahi hōʻike e kākoʻo ai i nā hoʻopiʻi a US no ka hoʻopiʻi ʻana i nā mea kaua lūlū ma Iraq. Ua hōʻike ʻo Director Director IAEA Mohamed ElBaradei i nā CIA Kālā puaʻa Niger palapala e like me ka hoʻopunipuni i loko o kahi mea o nā hola. Ua hoʻokō ʻo ElBaradei i ke kūʻokoʻa a me ke kūlike ʻole o kāna ʻoihana i ka mahalo o ka honua, a ua hāʻawi pū ʻia ʻo ia a me kāna ʻoihana i ka No ka Nobel Peace Prize ma 2005.
Kaawale mai nā mea hoʻopukapuka pololei a me ka hana pono ʻole i nā hōʻike mai nā hui pio e like me Ahmad Chalabi's Ke Kūkāʻāina ʻIlā Iraqi (INC) a me ka Iranian Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), ka hapa nui o nā mea a ka CIA a me nā mea kōkua i hāʻawi aku i nā ʻoihana UN i pili i ka ʻenehana hoʻohana pālua, i hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia i nā papahana mea pāpā pāpā ʻia akā loaʻa nā hoʻohana kūpono ʻē aʻe. ʻO ka hana nui a ka IAEA hana ma ʻIrana e hōʻoia i ka hoʻohana ʻia ʻana o kēlā me kēia mea no ka hana maluhia a i ʻole ka hoʻomohala ʻana i nā mea kaua ma mua o ka papahana kaua mea kaua. Akā e like me ʻIraka, ʻo ka hōʻuluʻulu ʻana o ka hōʻoia ʻole, hōʻike ʻole paʻa ʻole o kahi papahana mea kaua nukleila i lilo i mea kaua politika e hoʻohuli i ka pāpāho a me ka lehulehu e pono ana kekahi mea paʻa ma hope o ka uahi a me nā aniani.
No ka ao ana, i ka 1990, ke Ua hoʻomaka ke komo ʻana o CIA Nā leka uila Telex mai ke Kulanui ʻo Sharif ma Tehran a me ko ʻIke ʻInikū ʻInikia ʻO ʻIrani e pili ana i nā kauoha no nā mākēneki apo, fluoride a me nā pono lawelawe fluoride, kahi mīkini kaulike, kahi spectrometer lehulehu a me nā pono pono ʻole, nā mea āpau e hiki ke hoʻohana ʻia i ka uranium enrichment. No nā makahiki 17 e hiki mai ana, ua manaʻo ka CPC's NPC a me WINPAC i kēia mau Telexes ma ke ʻano he hōʻike ikaika loa o kahi polokalamu lako kaua nukili huna ma ʻIrani, a ua kuhikuhi ʻia lākou e nā luna nui o US. ʻAʻole ia a hiki i ka 2007-8 ua huli hope ke aupuni ʻInikia i kēia mau mea āpau ma ke Kulanui ʻo Sharif, a ua hiki i nā mea nānā iā IAEA ke e kipa aku i ke kulanui a hōʻoiaʻiʻo ua hoʻohana ʻia lākou no ka noiʻi a me ka aʻo ʻana, e like me kā Iran i haʻi ai iā lākou.
Ma hope o ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana a US no ʻIraka i ka makahiki 2003, ua hoʻomau ka hana a ka IAEA ma ʻIrana, akā ʻo kēlā me kēia alakaʻi i hāʻawi ʻia e ka CIA a me kāna mau mea kōkua i hana ʻia he hewa ʻole, hewa ʻole paha. I ka makahiki 2007, ua paʻi nā keʻena ʻike US i kahi National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) hou ma luna o ʻIrani kahi a lākou i ʻae ai ʻaʻohe o Iran papahana papahana kaua. ʻO ka paʻi ʻia o ka 2007 NIE he hana nui i ka pale ʻana i ke kaua US ma luna o ʻIrani. E like me kā George W Bush i kākau ai i kāna mau memo, "… Ma hope o ka NIE, pehea e hiki ai iaʻu ke wehewehe i ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka pūʻali koa e luku i nā wahi nukelea o kahi ʻāina i ʻōlelo ʻia e ke kaiāulu ʻike ʻaʻohe o lākou papahana nukelea hana."
Akā ʻoiai ka nele o ka hōʻoiaʻiʻo ʻole o ka hōʻike, hōʻole ka CIA e hoʻololi i ka "loiloi" mai kāna 2001 a me 2005 NIE i loaʻa paha iā Iran kahi papahana mea kaua nukelea ma mua o ka makahiki 2003. Ua wehe kēia i ka puka no ka hoʻomau o ka hoʻohana ʻana i nā hoʻopiʻi WMD, nā nānā. a me nā hoʻopaʻi e like me nā mea kaua politika ikaika i ke aupuni o ka US hoʻololi i ke kulekele iā ʻIrana.
Ma 2007, UNMOVIC i paʻi a Hoʻohui a i ʻole ka hōʻike hope loa e pili ana i nā haʻawina i aʻo ʻia mai ka pilikia ma ʻIraka. ʻO kekahi haʻawina nui, ʻo ia, "ʻO ke kūʻokoʻa piha kahi mea e pono ai no kahi ʻoihana nānā UN," i hoʻohana ʻole ʻia ai ke kaʻina hana, "no ke kākoʻo ʻana i nā papa ʻē aʻe a i ʻole ka mālama ʻana i ka ʻaoʻao i nānā ʻia i kahi kūlana mau o ka nāwaliwali." ʻO kekahi haʻawina nui ʻē aʻe, "ʻO ka hōʻoia ʻana i ka hopena maikaʻi ʻole kahi meaʻai no ka hoʻomanawanui ʻana i nā pilikia a me nā loiloi pau ʻole."
The 2005 ʻO ke Komikina ʻo Robb-Silberman ma ka US ʻike hemahema ma ʻIraka i hōʻea i nā hopena like loa, e like me kēlā, "... ua hoʻololi maikaʻi nā mea kālailai i ka ukana o ka hōʻoia, e koi ana i ka hōʻoia i ka loaʻa ʻole o nā polokalamu WMD o Iraq ma mua o ka koi ʻana i ka hōʻoiaʻiʻo o ko lākou ola. ʻOiai ke kūlana kulekele US ʻo ia ʻo Iraq i ke kuleana e hōʻike i ka pāpā ʻole ʻia o nā polokalamu mea kaua, ʻoi aku ka pahuhopu o ke kuleana o ka Community Intelligence Community ma ke kākoʻo ʻana ... o kā lākou kuhiakau - ua hana ʻo Iraq i nā polokalamu WMD. ”
I kāna hana ma Iran, ua hoʻomau ka CIA i ka hōʻiliʻili hewa a me nā hana i hōʻike ʻia e ka UNMOVIC Compendium a me ka hōʻike Robb-Silberman e pili ana iā ʻIraka. Ke hoʻomau nei ke kaomi e hana i ka ʻike politika i kākoʻo i nā kūlana kulekele o US no ka mea ʻo ia ka kuleana kīnā ke pāʻani nei nā ʻoihana ʻikepili a US i ke kulekele US, kiu i ma na aupuni e ae, hāmeʻa ʻōleʻa, hoʻoololei nā ʻāina a me ka hana ʻana i ka ʻike politika a me ka mea i hana ʻia no ka hana ʻana i nā kaua no ke kaua.
E hāʻawi kahi keʻena ʻikepili kūlike i ka ʻikepili i ka ʻike i hiki i nā mea hana kulekele ke hoʻohana i kumu no nā hoʻoholo kulekele kūpono. Akā, e like me ka UNMOVIC Compendium i hōʻike ai, he kolohe ʻole ke aupuni US i ka hoʻohana ʻino ʻana i ke kumumanaʻo o ka ʻike a me ka mana o nā hui honua e like me IAEA e "kākoʻo i nā papahana ʻē aʻe," ʻo ia hoʻi kona makemake no ka loli aupuni i nā ʻāina a puni ka honua.
Ua loaʻa i kahi hui ʻē aʻe a ka US ma Iran i ka wā i haʻalele ai ʻo Mohamed ElBaradei mai ka IAEA i ka makahiki 2009, a ua hoʻololi ʻia e Yukiya Amano mai Iāpana. A ʻOihana kelepona o ka moku'āina mai Iulai 10 2009 i hoʻokuʻu ʻia e Wikileaks ua wehewehe ʻo Mr. Amano ma ke ʻano he "hoa ikaika" i ka US ma muli o ke "kekelē kiʻekiʻe loa o ka hui ʻana ma waena o kāna mau mea nui a me kā mākou papahana ponoʻī ma IAEA." Ua manaʻo ka memo e hoʻāʻo ka US e "hoʻohālikelike i ka noʻonoʻo o Amano ma mua o ka hoʻoili ʻia ʻana o kāna papahana me ka IAEA Secretariat bureaucracy." ʻO Geoffrey Pyatt ka mea kākau a memo, ka mea i kū ma hope o ka kaulana kaulana ma ke ʻano he ʻelele US i Ukraine i hōʻike ʻia ma kahi pūka puʻuwai leo ka hoʻolālā ʻana i ka kudala 2014 ma Ukraine me ke Kākau'ōlelo kōkua o Victoria Nuland.
Ua hoʻopau ke aupuni Obama i kāna wā mua e hahai ana i kahi kū ʻole "Pālua-ala" hoʻokokoke i ʻO ʻIrana, kahi i hoʻohiolo ʻia ai kāna diplomacy e ka mea nui i hāʻawi ʻia i kāna ala like o ka piʻi ʻana o ka hoʻopaʻi o UN. I ka manawa i hōʻike aku ai ʻo Brazil a me Turkey iā ʻIrana i ke kuhi o kahi hana nukelea a ka US i noi ai, ua ʻae koke ʻo ʻIraka iā ia. Akā ua hōʻole ka US i ka mea i hoʻomaka ma ke ʻano he noi a US no ka mea, i kēlā manawa, e hoʻoliʻiliʻi ia i kāna mau hana e hoʻohuli i ka UN Security Council e kau i ka hoʻopaʻi koʻikoʻi ma luna o Iran.
E like me kā ka luna o ka Mokuʻāina Mokuʻāina i haʻi aku ai i ka mea kākau ʻo Trita Parsi, ʻo ka pilikia maoli, ʻaʻole e lawe ka US iā “ʻAe” no kahi pane. ʻO ia wale nō i ka manawa lua o Obama, ma hope o John Kerry i pani ai iā Hillary Clinton ma ke ʻano he kākau ʻōlelo no ka mokuʻāina, ua lawe ʻo ka US iā "ʻAe" no kahi pane, e alakaʻi ana i ka JCPOA ma waena o Iran, ka US a me nā mana nui ʻē aʻe i ka makahiki 2015. No laila ʻaʻole nā kākoʻo i kākoʻo ʻia e US i lawe iā ʻIrani i ka papaʻaina, akā ʻo ka holo pono ʻole o nā hoʻopaʻi i lawe ʻia ka US i ka papa
ʻO 2015, ua hoʻopau ka IAEA i kāna hana ma luna "Nā hihia kūʻokoʻa" e pili ana i nā hana e pili ana i ka nukleila o Iran i hala. Ma kēlā me kēia hihia kikoʻī o ka noiʻi ʻana a hoʻohana ʻenehana paha, ʻaʻole loaʻa i ka IAEA kahi hōʻoia e pili ana lākou i nā mea kaua nukelea ma mua o ka pūʻali koa a i ʻole ka hoʻohana kīwila. Ma lalo o ke alakaʻi ʻana a Amano a me ka US pressure, ua hoʻomau ʻo IAEA i ka "loiloi" "ua mālama ʻia kahi ʻano o nā hana e pili ana i ka hoʻomohala ʻana i kahi mea hana nukelea ma ʻIrani ma mua o ka pau ʻana o ka makahiki 2003," akā "ʻaʻole i holomua kēia mau hana ma mua o ka hiki ke hiki. nā noiʻi a me ka loaʻa ʻana o kekahi mau mākau loea e pili ana a me nā pono. "
Kākoʻo nui ka JCPOA ma Wakinekona. Akā ʻo ka hoʻopaʻapaʻa politika a ka US ma luna o ka JCPOA i nānā nui ʻole i nā hopena maoli o ka hana a IAEA i ʻIrana, ke ʻano ʻē a ka CIA i loko o ia mea a me ka nui a ka CIA i hana hou ai i nā ʻilihuna o nā keʻena, ka hoʻoikaika ʻana i nā manaʻo mua, nā forgeries, ka politika ʻana. a me nā palaho a nā "ʻaoʻao ʻē aʻe" i manaʻo ʻia e hoʻoponopono ʻia e pale ai i ka hana hou ʻana o ka WMD fiasco ma ʻIraka.
Ua ʻōlelo ka poʻe kālaiʻāina i kākoʻo iā JCPOA i kēia manawa ua kāpae iā ʻIrani i ka loaʻa ʻana o nā mea kaua nuklear, ʻoiai ka poʻe kūʻē i ka JCPOA e ʻōlelo nei e ʻae lākou iā Iran e loaʻa iā lākou. Ua hewa lāua ʻelua no ka mea, e like me ka IAEA i hoʻopau ai a ʻo Pelekikena Bush hoʻi i hōʻoia, ʻaʻohe o ʻIraka he papa hana mea kaua nukila. ʻO ka mea maikaʻi loa a ka IAEA i hiki ai ke ʻōlelo kūpilikiʻi ua hana paha ʻo Iran i kekahi noiʻi e pili ana i nā mea kaua nukelea i kekahi manawa ma mua o ka makahiki 2003 - akā hoʻi, ʻaʻole paha.
Ua kākau ʻo Mohamed ElBaradei i kāna memoir, ʻO ka makahiki o ka hoʻopunipuni:ʻO ke Kauka Nuclear Drum in Times Treachers, ʻo ia, inā i alakaʻi ʻo Iran i nā noiʻi nīnū kaua ʻole i ka ʻoihana kaua, ua maopopo ka manawa i ka wā o ka Kaua Iran-Iraq, i pau i ka makahiki 1988, i ka manawa a US a me kona mau hoa ua kōkua iā Iraq e luku aku i 100,000 mau Iranians me nā mea kaua kemika. Inā pololei nā kānalua a ElBaradei, ʻo ka pilikia o ʻIrani mai ia manawa ʻaʻole hiki iā ia ke ʻae i kēlā hana i nā makahiki 1980 me ka kū ʻole ʻana i ka hilinaʻi nui a me ka inaina mai ka US a me kāna mau mea kōkua, a ke makaʻu nei i kahi hopena like me ʻIraka.
Me ka hopohopo ʻole e pili ana i nā hana a ʻIrani i nā makahiki 1980, ua hōʻeha ka hana a ka US iā ʻIraka i ka i nā haʻawina koʻikoʻi loa Ua ʻōlelo ʻia nā luna o US a me UN e aʻo mai ka fiasco ma luna o ʻIraka. Ua hoʻohana ka CIA i kāna mau manaʻo kānalua ʻole e pili ana i nā mea kaua nukelea i ʻIrani ma ke ʻano he mau ʻōlelo kākoʻo e "kākoʻo i nā papahana ʻē aʻe" a "mālama i ka ʻaoʻao i nānā ʻia i kahi kūlana mau o ka nāwaliwali," e like me ka Hoʻohui like UNMOVIC ua ʻōlelo lūlū ʻole hou e hana hou i kekahi ʻāina ʻē aʻe.
Ma Iran e like me Iraq, ua hoʻokumu ʻia kēia i ka rula kū ʻole i ka hewa kīʻaha, ma lalo o nā tausani o nā keiki e make nei mai nā maʻi i hiki ke pale ʻia a me ka hōʻemi kino ʻole, a me nā hoʻoweliweli o kekahi kaua US ʻē aʻe ʻole e hoʻopilikia i ka Hikina Waena a me ka honua i kahi haunaele ʻoi aku ka nui ma mua o ka CIA i ʻenekia kūʻē iā ʻIraka.
One Hoʻonohonoho
mai hana hou i ka wahaheʻe, hoʻohana hou i ka ʻoiaʻiʻo!