By ʻO Prabir Purkayastha, World BEYOND War, Malaki 17, 2023
ʻO ka ʻaelike hou o Australia, US, a me UK he $368 biliona no ke kūʻai ʻana i nā moku nuklea ua kapa ʻia e Paul Keating, he kuhina nui o Australia, ʻo ia hoʻi. ʻO ka "ʻoihana maikaʻi loa i ka mōʻaukala a pau." Hoʻopaʻa ʻo ia iā Australia e kūʻai aku i nā submarine i hoʻohana ʻia i ka nuklea e hāʻawi ʻia i nā makahiki 2040 mua. E hoʻokumu ʻia kēia mau mea i nā hoʻolālā reactor nuklea hou e hoʻomohala ʻia e UK. I kēia manawa, e hoʻomaka ana mai ka 2030s, "e kali ana i ka ʻae ʻia mai ka US Congress, ke manaʻo nei ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa e kūʻai aku iā Australia i ʻekolu mau moku moana ʻo Virginia, me ka hiki ke kūʻai aku i ʻelua hou aku inā pono" (Trilateral Australia-UK-US Partnership on Nuclear-Powered Submarines, Malaki 13, 2023; koʻikoʻi koʻu). Wahi a nā kikoʻī, ʻike ʻia ua hana kēia ʻaelike iā Australia e kūʻai mai ʻewalu mau moku nuklea hou mai ka US, e hāʻawi ʻia mai ka 2040s a hiki i ka hopena o 2050s. Inā he mea koʻikoʻi nā submarines nuklea no ka palekana o Australia, no laila ua uhaki i kāna kuʻikahi submarine me ka mana diesel e kū nei me Farani, ʻaʻole hāʻawi kēia ʻaelike i nā pane kūpono.
No ka poʻe i hahai i nā pilikia hoʻonui nuklea, hoʻāla ka ʻaelike i kahi hae ʻulaʻula ʻē aʻe. Inā hoʻokaʻawale ʻia ka ʻenehana nuclear reactor submarine a me nā mea kaua-grade (highly enriched) uranium me Australia, he uhaki ia i ka Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) kahi i kakau inoa ai o Auseteralia ma ke ano he mana nukelea ole. ʻO ka hāʻawi ʻana i kēlā mau reactor nuklea e ka US a me UK he mea ia e uhaki ai i ka NPT. ʻOiai inā ʻaʻole lawe nā submarine i nā mea kaua nuklea akā maʻamau e like me ka ʻōlelo ma kēia ʻaelike.
No laila, no ke aha i hōʻole ai ʻo Australia i kāna ʻaelike me Farani, ʻo ia ka mea e kūʻai aku ai i 12 mau moku moana diesel mai ʻO Farani ma ke kumukūʻai o $ 67 biliona, he hapa liʻiliʻi o kāna hana nui $368 billion me ka US? He aha ka mea e loaʻa ai, a he aha ka mea i loaʻa i ka US ma ka hoʻonāukiuki ʻana iā Farani, kekahi o kāna mau hoa pili NATO?
No ka hoʻomaopopo ʻana, pono mākou e ʻike i ke ʻano o ka nānā ʻana o ka US i ka geostrategy, a me ke ʻano o ka Five Eyes — ʻo US, UK, Canada, Australia, a me New Zealand — i komo i kēia kiʻi nui. ʻIke loa, manaʻoʻiʻo ka US ʻo ke kumu o ka hui NATO ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, United Kingdom, a me Kanada no ka Atlantika a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa, United Kingdom, a me Australia no ka Indo-Pacific. ʻO ke koena o kona mau hoa pili, nā hui NATO ma ʻEulopa a me Iapana a me South Korea ma Hikina a me ʻAsia Hema, a puni kēia ʻo Five Eyes core. ʻO ia ke kumu i makemake ai ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa e hōʻeha iā Farani e hoʻopaʻa i kahi kuʻikahi me Australia.
He aha ka ʻAmelika e loaʻa ai mai kēia kuʻikahi? Ma ka ʻōlelo hoʻohiki o ʻewalu mau moku nuklea e hāʻawi ʻia iā Australia i ʻelua a ʻehā mau makahiki ma lalo o ka laina, hiki i ka US ke komo i Australia e hoʻohana ʻia ma ke ʻano he kumu no ke kākoʻo ʻana i kāna mau ʻauwaʻa moana, ea, a me nā koa US. ʻO ka ʻO nā huaʻōlelo i hoʻohana ʻia e ka Hale Keʻokeʻo, "E like me ka 2027, ua hoʻolālā ʻo United Kingdom a me ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa e hoʻokumu i kahi hui hoʻololi o hoʻokahi submarine papa UK Astute a hiki i ʻehā mau moku moku US Virginia ma HMAS. Hoʻopiʻi kokoke i Perth, Western Australia. ʻO ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka huaʻōlelo “rotational presence” ʻo ia ka hāʻawi ʻana iā Australia i ka lau fig ʻaʻole ia e hāʻawi ana i ka US i kahua kaua moana, no ka mea, e hōʻino ana i ke kūlana lōʻihi o Australia ʻaʻohe kumu haole ma kona lepo. ʻIke loa, ʻo nā hale kākoʻo a pau e pono ai no ia mau hoʻololi ʻana, ʻo ia ka mea i loaʻa i kahi kahua kaua haole, no laila e hana lākou ma ke ʻano he kahua US.
ʻO wai ka pahuhopu o ka hui AUKUS? Ua maopopo keia ma na palapala a pau e pili ana i ke kumuhana a me ka olelo a na alakai a pau o AUKUS: o Kina ia. I nā huaʻōlelo ʻē aʻe, ʻo ia ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana i ke kulekele Kina me ke Kai Kina Hema a me ke Strait Taiwanese ma ke ʻano nui o nā ʻāpana moana i hakakā ʻia. ʻO ka hoʻonoho ʻana i nā moku manuā US me kāna mau submarines nuklea i hoʻopaʻa ʻia me nā mea kaua nuklea e lilo ai ʻo Australia i mokuʻāina mua i ka hoʻolālā ʻana o US no ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana iā Kina. Hoʻohui ʻia, hana ia i ka hoʻoikaika ʻana i ka hapa nui o nā ʻāina ʻo ʻAsia Hema e makemake e noho i waho o ka hoʻokūkū US versus China e hana ʻia ana ma ke Kai Kina Hema.
ʻOiai hiki ke hoʻomaopopo ʻia ka hoʻoikaika ʻana o ka US e kākau iā Australia ma ke ʻano he mokuʻāina mua e kūʻē iā Kina, ʻo ka mea paʻakikī ke hoʻomaopopo Loaʻa ka loaʻa ʻana o Australia mai ia ʻano alignment. ʻAʻole ʻo Kina ka mea lawe nui loa i nā waiwai o Australia, akā ʻo kāna mea hoʻolako nui loa. ʻO ia hoʻi, inā hopohopo ʻo Australia i ka palekana o kāna kālepa ma o ke Kai Kina Hema mai nā hoʻouka kaua ʻana mai Kina, ʻo ka hapa nui o kēia kālepa me Kina. No laila no ke aha e huhū nui ai ʻo Kina e hoʻouka i kāna kālepa ponoʻī me Australia? No ka US he mea koʻikoʻi ka loaʻa ʻana o ka ʻāina holoʻokoʻa, ʻo Australia, e hoʻokipa i kāna mau pūʻali i kahi kokoke loa i Kina ma mua o 8,000-9,000 mau mile ma ka US ʻOiai ua loaʻa iā ia nā kahua ma Hawaii a me Guam i ka Moana Pākīpika, ʻo Australia a me Iapana e hāʻawi. ʻelua wahi heleuma, hoʻokahi ma ka ʻākau a ʻo kekahi ma ka hema ma ka ʻāina hikina o ka Moana Pākīpika. ʻO ka pāʻani he pāʻani kahiko o ka hoʻopaʻa ʻana, ka mea a ka US i pāʻani ai me kāna NATO, Central Treaty Organization (CENTO), a me nā hui pūʻali koa Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) ma hope o ke Kaua Honua II.
ʻO ka pilikia o ka US i kēia lā, ʻo nā ʻāina e like me India, nā pilikia me Kina, ʻaʻole lākou e hoʻopaʻa inoa me ka US i kahi hui pūʻali koa. ʻO ka mea nui, ʻoiai ʻo ka US i kēia manawa i kahi kaua hoʻokele waiwai me kahi helu o nā ʻāina, ʻaʻole ʻo Rūsia a me Kina wale nō, e like me Cuba, Iran, Venezuela, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, a me Somalia. ʻOiai ua makemake ʻo India e hui pū me ka Quad-ʻo ka US, Australia, Iapana, a me India-a komo i nā hoʻomaʻamaʻa kaua, ua haʻalele ʻo ia mai ka Quad i lilo i hui pūʻali koa. ʻO kēia ka wehewehe ʻana i ke koʻikoʻi o Australia e hui pū me ka US me ka pūʻali koa, ʻoi loa ma Asia Hema.
ʻAʻole naʻe ʻo ia e wehewehe i ka mea i loko no Australia. ʻO nā submarine nuklea papa Virginia ʻelima i loaʻa iā Australia i ka lima lua, aia nō ia i ka ʻae ʻana o ka ʻaha ʻAmelika. ʻO ka poʻe e hahai ana i nā kālai'āina US, ʻike lākou ʻaʻole hiki i ka US ke kuikahi; ʻaʻole ʻo ia i ʻae i hoʻokahi kuʻikahi e pili ana i nā pilikia mai ka hoʻomehana honua a hiki i ke kānāwai o ke kai i nā makahiki i hala. ʻO nā ʻewalu ʻē aʻe he 20-40 mau makahiki maikaʻi; ʻO wai ka mea ʻike i ke ʻano o ka honua ma lalo o ka laina.
No ke aha, inā ʻo ka palekana moana kāna pahuhopu, ua koho ʻo Australia i kahi iffy nuclear submarine aelike me ka US ma luna o ka lako paʻa paʻa o Farani submarines? ʻO kēia kahi ninau ia Malcolm Turnbull a ʻo Paul Keating, nā PMs mua o ka Australian Labor Party. He mea kūpono wale nō inā maopopo iā mākou ke ʻike nei ʻo Australia iā ia iho he cog i ka huila US no kēia wahi. A he hihiʻo ia o ka mana o ka moku kaua US ma ka ʻāina e kaʻana like nei ʻo Australia. ʻO ka manaʻo, ʻo nā mana colonial a me nā mana ex-colonial - ʻo ka G7-AUKUS - pono lākou e hana i nā lula o ke ʻano o ka honua. A ma hope o ke kamaʻilio ʻana o ka hoʻonohonoho honua, ʻo ia ka lima leka uila o ka US, NATO, a me AUKUS. ʻO kēia ke ʻano maoli o ka ʻaelike submarine nuklea a Australia.
Ua hana pū ʻia kēia ʻatikala e Newsclick a ʻO Globetrotter. ʻO Prabir Purkayastha ka mea hoʻoponopono hoʻokumu o Newsclick.in, kahi kahua paʻi kikohoʻe. He mea hana ʻo ia no ka ʻepekema a me ka neʻe ʻana o ka polokalamu manuahi.
