Hiki iā NATO a me ka Pentagon ke loaʻa kahi diplomatic off-ramp mai ke kaua Ukraine?


Kiʻi kiʻi: Economic Club of New York

Na Medea Benjamin lāua ʻo Nicolas JS Davies, World BEYOND War, Ianuali 3, 2023

ʻO ke Kakauolelo Nui o NATO ʻo Jens Stoltenberg, i ʻike ʻia no kāna kākoʻo paʻa iā Ukraine, nei Ua hōʻike ʻo ia i kona hopohopo nui loa no kēia hoʻoilo i kahi mea nīnauele TV ma kona ʻāina ʻo Norewai: ʻo ka hakakā ʻana ma Ukraine hiki ke wili i waho o ka mana a lilo i kaua nui ma waena o NATO a me Rusia. "Inā hewa nā mea," i ʻōlelo ʻo ia me ka ʻoiaʻiʻo, "hiki iā lākou ke hele hewa loa."

He mea ʻokoʻa loa ia mai kahi mea i komo i ke kaua, a e hōʻike ana i ka dichotomy i nā ʻōlelo hou ma waena o nā alakaʻi kālai'āina o US a me NATO ma kekahi ʻaoʻao a me nā luna koa ma kekahi. Ke ʻike mau nei nā alakaʻi kīwila i ke kaua lōʻihi a wehe ʻia ma Ukraine, ʻoiai nā alakaʻi koa, e like me ka US Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, ua ʻōlelo a koi aku iā Ukraine e "hopu i ka manawa” no nā kamaʻilio maluhia.

Ua haʻi mua ʻo Adimarala Michael Mullen, he Luna Hoʻomalu Hui Pū ʻIa mua, e hoʻāʻo ana paha i ka wai no Milley. haʻi ʻO ABC News e "hana ʻo ʻAmelika i nā mea āpau e hiki ai iā mākou ke hoʻāʻo e hele i ka papa e hoʻoholo i kēia mea."

Nā Asia Times hoike ʻO nā alakaʻi pūʻali koa NATO ʻē aʻe i ka manaʻo o Milley ʻaʻole hiki iā Rūsia a ʻo Ukraine ke lanakila i ka pūʻali koa, ʻoiai ʻo nā loiloi pūʻali koa Farani a me Kelemania i manaʻo ai ʻo ke kūlana kūkākūkā ikaika i loaʻa iā Ukraine ma o kāna mau kūleʻa pūʻali koa hou e pōkole ke ola inā ʻaʻole ia e hoʻolohe. ʻO ka ʻōlelo aʻo a Milley.

No laila, no ke aha e ʻōlelo wikiwiki ai nā alakaʻi pūʻali koa US a me NATO e hōʻole i ka hoʻomau ʻana o kā lākou kuleana nui i ke kaua ma Ukraine? A no ke aha lākou e ʻike ai i ka pōʻino i ka wā e hiki mai ana inā nalo a nānā ʻole paha ko lākou mau luna politika i kā lākou ʻike no ka neʻe ʻana i ka diplomacy?

ʻO Rand Corporation i kauoha ʻia e Pentagon like i paʻi ʻia ma Dekemaba, i kapa ʻia ʻo Responding to a Russian Attack on NATO During the Ukraine War, hāʻawi i nā hōʻailona e pili ana i ka mea a Milley a me kāna mau hoa pūʻali koa i ʻike weliweli loa. Ke nānā nei ka haʻawina i nā koho US no ka pane ʻana i ʻehā mau hiʻohiʻona kahi e hoʻouka ai ʻo Rūsia i kahi ʻano o nā pahuhopu NATO, mai kahi satelite naʻauao US a i ʻole kahi pūlima NATO ma Polani a hiki i ka hoʻouka kaua missile nui ma nā kahua mokulele a me nā awa o NATO, me Ramstein US Air Base. a me ke awa o Rotterdam.

ʻO kēia mau hiʻohiʻona ʻehā he hypothetical a hoʻokumu ʻia i ka piʻi ʻana o Rūsia ma waho o nā palena o Ukraine. Akā ke hōʻike nei ka loiloi a nā mea kākau i ka maikaʻi a me ka pōʻino o ka laina ma waena o ka palena a me ka like o nā pane pūʻali koa i ka piʻi ʻana o Rūsia a me ka piʻi ʻana o ka piʻi ʻana e hiki ke wili a alakaʻi i ke kaua nuklea.

Heluhelu ʻia ka ʻōlelo hope loa o ka hopena o ka noiʻi: "ʻO ka hiki ke hoʻohana i ka nuklea e hoʻohui i ke kaumaha i ka pahuhopu US e pale aku i ka piʻi hou ʻana, kahi pahuhopu i ʻike ʻia e koʻikoʻi nui ma hope o kahi hoʻouka kaua kuʻuna Lūkini." Eia naʻe nā ʻāpana ʻē aʻe o ka noiʻi e kūʻē i ka de-escalation a i ʻole ka liʻiliʻi o ka pane ʻana i ka piʻi ʻana o Rūsia, e pili ana i nā hopohopo like me ka "hōʻoiaʻiʻo" US i alakaʻi i nā pōʻino o ka piʻi ʻana ma Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan a me nā mea ʻē aʻe. kaua.

Ke makaʻu mau nei nā alakaʻi kālai'āina o ʻAmelika inā ʻaʻole lākou e pane ikaika i nā hana a ka ʻenemi, e hoʻoholo ko lākou mau ʻenemi (ʻo ia hoʻi ʻo Kina) hiki i kā lākou pūʻali koa ke hoʻoholo i ke kulekele US a hoʻoikaika i ka United States a me kona mau hoa e hoʻi hope. Akā ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o ia mau makaʻu i alakaʻi mau ʻia i nā lanakila ʻoi aku ka hoʻoholo a me ka hoʻohaʻahaʻa US.

Ma Ukraine, ua hoʻohui ʻia ka hopohopo o ʻAmelika e pili ana i ka "hōʻoiaʻiʻo" e ka pono e hōʻike i kona mau hoa pili ʻo ka ʻatikala 5 o NATO - e ʻōlelo ana e manaʻo ʻia ka hoʻouka ʻana i hoʻokahi lālā o NATO he hoʻouka kaua ma luna o nā mea āpau - he kūpaʻa paʻa loa ia e pale aku iā lākou.

No laila, ua paʻa ke kulekele US ma Ukraine ma waena o ka pono kaulana e hoʻoweliweli i kona mau ʻenemi a kākoʻo i kāna mau hoa pili ma kekahi ʻaoʻao, a me nā pōʻino maoli maoli ʻole o ka piʻi ʻana ma kekahi ʻaoʻao. Inā hoʻomau nā alakaʻi o ʻAmelika e hana e like me ka wā ma mua, e makemake ana i ka piʻi ʻana ma luna o ka nalowale o ka "hōʻoiaʻiʻo," e pāʻani lākou me ke kaua nuklea, a e piʻi wale ka pōʻino me kēlā me kēia wili o ka escalatory spiral.

E like me ka puka ʻole o kahi "hoʻoponopono koa" e ala mālie ana ma luna o nā koa noho lima ma Wakinekona a me nā poʻo NATO, ke hāʻule mālie nei lākou i nā kūlana conciliatory i kā lākou mau ʻōlelo ākea. ʻO ka mea nui loa, ke hoʻololi nei lākou i kā lākou koi mua e pono e hoʻihoʻi ʻia ʻo Ukraine i kona mau palena mua o 2014, ʻo ia hoʻi ka hoʻi ʻana o nā Donbas a me Crimea, me ke kāhea ʻana iā Rūsia e haʻalele wale i mua o Pepeluali 24, 2022, nā kūlana, kahi. ʻO Rusia ma mua aelike i i nā kūkākūkā ma Tureke i Malaki.

Kakauolelo o ka Moku'āina ʻo ʻAmelika ʻo Antony Blinken haʻiʻia ʻO ka Wall Street Journal i ka lā 5 Dekemaba ʻo ka pahuhopu o ke kaua i kēia manawa "e hoʻihoʻi i ka ʻāina i hopu ʻia mai [Ukraine] mai Pepeluali 24th." ʻO ka WSJ hoike Ua ʻōlelo ʻo [US National Security Adviser Jake] Sullivan e "ʻelua mau diploma ʻEulopa ... ua ʻōlelo ʻo [US National Security Adviser Jake] Sullivan e hoʻomaka ka hui o Mr. .”

In kekahi ʻatikala, The Wall Street Journal i haʻi aku i nā luna Kelemania e ʻōlelo ana, "manaʻo lākou he mea kūpono ʻole ka manaʻo e kipaku loa ʻia nā pūʻali Lūkini mai nā ʻāina āpau i noho ʻia," ʻoiai ua wehewehe nā luna Pelekane i ke kumu haʻahaʻa no nā kūkākūkā ʻana e like me ka makemake o Rūsia e "haʻalele i nā kūlana. Ua noho ia ma ka lā 23 o Pepeluali.

ʻO kekahi o nā hana mua a Rishi Sunak ma ke ʻano he Kuhina Nui o UK ma ka hopena o ʻOkakopa, ʻo ia ke kāhea ʻana i ke Kuhina Kūʻē ʻo Ben Wallace i ke Kuhina Palekana ʻo Rūsia ʻo Sergei Shoigu no ka manawa mua mai ka hoʻouka kaua ʻana o Rusia i Pepeluali. Ua haʻi ʻo Wallace iā Shoigu e makemake ana ka UK hoʻopololei ʻO ka hakakā, kahi hoʻololi nui mai nā kulekele o nā Kuhina mua ʻo Boris Johnson lāua ʻo Liz Truss. ʻO kahi mea hina nui e hoʻopaʻa ana i nā diplomats Western mai ka papaʻaina maluhia ʻo ka maximalist rhetoric a me nā kūlana kūkākūkā o Pelekikena Zelenskyy a me ke aupuni Ukrainian, ka mea i koi mai mai ʻApelila ʻaʻole ia e hoʻoholo i kahi mea pōkole o ka mana piha ma luna o kēlā me kēia ʻīniha o ka ʻāina i loaʻa iā Ukraine ma mua o 2014.

Akā ʻo kēlā kūlana kiʻekiʻe loa he hoʻohuli kupaianaha ia mai ke kūlana i lawe ai ʻo Ukraine i nā kamaʻilio hoʻomaha ma Turkey i Malaki, i ka wā i ʻae ai ʻo ia e haʻalele i kona makemake e hui pū me NATO a ʻaʻole e hoʻokipa i nā kahua kaua o nā ʻāina ʻē no ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana o Rūsia i kāna. nā kūlana pre-invasion. Ma ia mau kamaʻilio ʻana, ua ʻae ʻo Ukraine e kūkā ka wā e hiki mai ana o Donbas a i hoʻomaha he hoʻoholo hope loa e pili ana i ka wā e hiki mai ana o Crimea a hiki i 15 mau makahiki.

Ua haki ka Financial Times i ka moʻolelo o kēlā hoʻolālā maluhia 15-point ma Malaki 16, a me Zelenskyy wehewehe ʻO ka "ʻaelike kūʻokoʻa" i kona poʻe ma kahi hoʻolaha TV aupuni ma Malaki 27, e hoʻohiki ana e waiho i kahi referendum aupuni ma mua o ka hiki ke hoʻokō.

Akā ua komo ke Kuhina Nui o UK ʻo Boris Johnson i ka lā 9 ʻApelila e hoʻopau i kēlā ʻaelike. Ua haʻi ʻo ia iā Zelenskyy ʻo ke UK a me ka "Collective West" i loko o ia "no ka holo lōʻihi" a e hoʻihoʻi iā Ukraine e kaua i ke kaua lōʻihi, akā ʻaʻole ia e kau inoa i nā ʻaelike a Ukraine me Russia.

Kōkua kēia i ka wehewehe ʻana i ke kumu i huhū nui ai ʻo Zelenskyy i nā manaʻo o ke Komohana e hoʻi ʻo ia i ka papa kūkā. Ua haʻalele ʻo Johnson i ka hilahila, akā ua haʻalele ʻo ia iā Zelenskyy a me ka poʻe o Ukraine e kau ana ma kāna mau ʻōlelo hoʻohiki.

I ʻApelila, ua ʻōlelo ʻo Johnson e ʻōlelo ʻo ia no ka "Collective West," akā ʻo ʻAmelika Hui Pū ʻIa wale nō i lawe i ka mea like. wahi, oiai Palani, Kelemānia a Ikalia Ua kāhea nā mea a pau i nā kūkākūkā hoʻomaha hou i Mei. I kēia manawa ua hana ʻo Johnson iā ia iho i kahi e pili ana i ka maka, kākau i kahi Op-ed no ka The Wall Street Journal ma ka lā 9 o Dekemaba ʻo ia wale nō "pono ​​​​e hoʻihoʻi ʻia nā pūʻali Lūkini i ka palena de facto o Pepeluali 24."

Ua hana hewa ʻo Johnson lāua ʻo Biden i ke kulekele o ke Komohana ma Ukraine, e hoʻopili ana i ka politika iā lākou iho i kahi kulekele o ke kaua ʻole a pau ʻole i hōʻole ʻia e nā ʻōlelo aʻoaʻo pūʻali koa NATO no nā kumu maikaʻi loa: e pale aku i ke Kaua Honua III o ka honua a Biden ponoʻī. 'ōlelo hoʻopōmaikaʻi hōʻalo.

Ke hana hope nei nā alakaʻi o ʻAmelika a me NATO i nā alapiʻi e pili ana i ke kūkākūkā ʻana, akā ʻo ka nīnau koʻikoʻi e kū nei i ka honua ma 2023 inā paha e hele nā ​​ʻaoʻao kaua i ka papa kūkākūkā ma mua o ka piʻi ʻana o ka piʻi ʻana o ka pōʻino.

ʻO Medea Benjamin lāua ʻo Nicolas JS Davies nā mea kākau o Ke Kaua ma Ukraine: Ke Manaʻo ʻana i kahi Kūʻē Kūʻē, i paʻi ʻia e OR Books i Nowemapa 2022.

ʻO Medea Benjamin ka puʻukū o ʻO CODEPINK no ka maluhia, a me ka mea kākau o kekahi mau puke, e komo pū ai I loko o Iran:ʻO ka moʻoleloʻoiaʻiʻo a me ka politika o ka moku'Alapila o Iran.

He kanaka hana kūlohelohe ʻo Nicolas JS Davies, he mea noiʻi me CODEPINK a ʻo ka mea nāna i kākau ʻO ke koko ma ko mākou mau lima: Ke komohewa aku nei ʻo ʻAmelika a me ka luku ʻana iā Iraq.

 

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