Sanarwa ta Jamus Initiative Rarraban Makamai, A ranar tunawa da mamayar da Rasha ta yi wa Ukraine, a ranar 16 ga Fabrairu, 2023
Tare da mamayewar Ukraine da sojojin Rasha suka yi a ranar 24 ga Fabrairu 2022, yakin shekaru bakwai na rashin ƙarfi a cikin Donbass wanda a cewar OSCE ya haifar da mutuwar 14,000, gami da fararen hula 4,000, kashi biyu cikin uku na waɗannan a cikin yankuna da suka balle - ya ƙaru zuwa sabon ingancin tashin hankalin soja. Yunkurin mamayar na Rasha babban laifi ne ga dokokin ƙasa da ƙasa kuma ya haifar da ƙarin asarar rayuka, halaka, zullumi, da laifukan yaƙi. Maimakon yin amfani da damar da za a yi sulhu (tattaunawa da farko, a gaskiya, ya faru har zuwa Afrilu 2022), yakin ya zama "yakin wakili tsakanin Rasha da NATO", kamar yadda har ma jami'an gwamnati a Amurka yanzu sun yarda da shi a fili. .
A sa'i daya kuma, kudurin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya na ranar 2 ga Maris, wanda kasashe 141 suka yi Allah wadai da harin, sun riga sun yi kira da a daidaita rikicin cikin gaggawa "ta hanyar tattaunawa ta siyasa, tattaunawa, sasantawa da sauran hanyoyin lumana" tare da neman "biyu. Yarjejeniyar Minsk" da kuma a bayyane ta hanyar tsarin Normandy "don yin aiki mai inganci don aiwatar da su."
Duk da wannan kira na al'ummar duniya ya yi watsi da dukkan bangarorin da abin ya shafa, duk da cewa suna son yin la'akari da kudurorin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya kamar yadda suka amince da matsayinsu.
Ƙarshen ruɗi
A soja, Kiev yana kan tsaro kuma ikon yaƙin gabaɗaya yana raguwa. Tun a watan Nuwamba 2022, shugaban hafsan hafsoshin hafsoshin Amurka ya ba da shawarar a fara tattaunawa yayin da ya dauki nasarar Kiev ba gaskiya ba ne. Kwanan nan a Ramstein ya maimaita wannan matsayi.
Amma ko da yake 'yan siyasa da kafofin watsa labaru sun jingina ga mafarki na nasara, halin da ake ciki na Kiev ya tabarbare. Wannan shine tushen sabon tashin hankali, watau isar da tankunan yaki. Koyaya, wannan zai tsawaita rikici ne kawai. Ba za a iya cin nasara a yakin ba. Madadin haka, wannan ƙarin mataki ne kawai tare da gangare mai santsi. Nan da nan, gwamnati a Kiev ta bukaci samar da jiragen yaki na gaba, sa'an nan kuma, shigar da sojojin NATO kai tsaye - wanda ke haifar da yiwuwar karuwar makaman nukiliya?
A cikin yanayin makaman nukiliya, Ukraine ce za ta fara halaka. Alkaluman Majalisar Dinkin Duniya sun nuna cewa, adadin fararen hula da suka mutu a bara ya zarce 7,000, kuma asarar da sojoji suka yi ya kasance a zangon lambobi shida. Waɗanda suka ƙyale ci gaba da harbe-harbe maimakon tattaunawa dole ne su tambayi kansu ko suna shirye su sadaukar da wasu 100,000, 200,000 ko ma fiye da mutane don manufar yaƙi.
Hadin kai na gaske da Ukraine na nufin yin aiki don dakatar da kisan da wuri-wuri.
Yana da geopolitics - wawa!
Muhimmin abin da ya sa kasashen Yamma ke buga katin soji shi ne, Washington ta fahimci wata dama ta raunana Moscow sosai ta hanyar yakin basasa. Yayin da rinjayen da Amurka ke da shi a duniya ya ragu saboda sauye-sauyen tsarin kasa da kasa, Amurka na kokarin sake tabbatar da da'awarta ga shugabancin duniya - har ila yau a cikin kishiyarta ta siyasa da kasar Sin.
Wannan ya dace da abin da Amurka ta riga ta yi tun da wuri bayan yakin cacar baka don gwadawa da hana bullar kishiya mai girman kima da Tarayyar Soviet. Don haka, mafi mahimmancin kayan aiki shine faɗaɗa gabas na NATO tare da Ukraine a matsayin "jigon jirgin sama mara nauyi" a ƙofar Moscow a matsayin nasarar da ta samu. A halin yanzu, haɗin gwiwar tattalin arzikin Yukren zuwa yammacin ya kasance ta hanyar yerjejeniya ta Ƙungiyar Tarayyar Turai wadda aka yi shawarwari daga 2007 zuwa gaba - wadda ta ba da izini ga Ukraine daga Rasha.
Kishin kasa na Rasha a Gabashin Turai an kunna shi azaman tushen akida. A cikin Ukraine, wannan ya karu a cikin tashin hankali a kan Maidan a cikin 2014, da kuma mayar da martani ga wannan ma a cikin Donbass, wanda ya kai ga ballewar Crimea da yankunan Donetsk da Luhansk. A halin da ake ciki dai yakin ya zama dunkulewar fadace-fadace guda biyu: – A daya bangaren kuma, rikicin da ke tsakanin Ukraine da Rasha ya samo asali ne sakamakon rugujewar rugujewar Tarayyar Sobiet da ita kanta ta ke da nauyi a tarihin samuwar kasar Ukraine mai cin karo da juna. al'umma, kuma a daya bangaren, - dade-daden adawa tsakanin manyan kasashen biyu masu karfin nukiliya.
Wannan yana haifar da matsaloli masu haɗari da rikitarwa na ma'aunin makamashin nukiliya (na ta'addanci). Ta fuskar Moscow, hadewar soji na Ukraine cikin kasashen Yamma na tattare da hatsarin yajin yanke gashin kai kan Moscow. Musamman tun daga yarjejeniyar sarrafa makamai, daga yarjejeniyar ABM a karkashin Bush a 2002 zuwa INF da Open Sky Treaty karkashin Trump wadanda aka amince da su a lokacin yakin cacar baki duk an kare su. Ko da kuwa ingancinsa, don haka ya kamata a kula da tunanin Moscow. Irin wannan tsoro ba za a iya kawar da shi da kalmomi kawai ba, amma yana buƙatar ingantattun matakan amintacce. Koyaya, a cikin Disamba 2021, Washington ta ƙi matakan da suka dace da Moscow.
Bugu da kari, cin zarafin yarjejeniyoyin da aka tsara a karkashin dokokin kasa da kasa shi ma daya ne daga cikin ayyukan kasashen yammacin duniya, kamar yadda aka nuna, a tsakanin sauran abubuwa, da Merkel da François Hollande suka amince da cewa sun kammala Minsk II ne kawai don sayen lokaci don ba da damar makamai na Kiev. A kan wannan baya, alhakin yakin - kuma wannan shine mafi gaskiya tun lokacin da muke fama da yakin basasa - ba za a iya ragewa zuwa Rasha kadai ba.
Ko ta yaya, alhakin Kremlin ba ya ɓace ta kowace hanya. Har ila yau, ra'ayin kishin ƙasa yana yaduwa a Rasha kuma ana ƙara ƙarfafa ikon mulkin kasar. Amma waɗanda ke kallon dogon tarihin haɓakawa kawai ta hanyar ruwan tabarau na hotuna masu sauƙi na baƙar fata da fari za su iya yin watsi da na Washington - da kuma ta hanyar EU - rabon alhakin.
A cikin Zazzabin Bellicose
Ajin siyasa da kafofin watsa labarai sun share duk waɗannan haɗin gwiwa a ƙarƙashin kafet. Maimakon haka, sun shiga cikin ainihin zazzabin bellicose.
Jamus jam'iyyar yaƙi ce ta gaskiya kuma gwamnatin Jamus ta zama gwamnatin yaƙi. Ministan harkokin wajen Jamus a cikin girman kai ta yi imanin cewa za ta iya "lalata" Rasha. A halin da ake ciki, jam'iyyarta (The Green Party) ta rikide daga jam'iyyar zaman lafiya zuwa mafi zafi a cikin Bundestag. A lokacin da aka samu wasu nasarori na dabara a fagen fama a Ukraine, wadanda muhimmancin dabarunsu ya wuce gona da iri, an yi tunanin cewa za a iya samun nasarar soja kan Rasha. Wadanda ke neman sulhun zaman lafiya suna jin haushi a matsayin "masu kishin kasa" ko "masu aikata laifukan yaki na biyu".
Wani yanayi na siyasa irin na gida a lokacin yaƙi ya kunno kai wanda ke nuna matsananciyar matsin lamba don bin abin da da yawa ba sa yin adawa da shi. Hoton abokan gaba daga waje an haɗa shi da haɓaka rashin haƙuri daga cikin babban fili. 'Yancin fadin albarkacin baki da 'yancin 'yan jarida na lalacewa kamar yadda aka kwatanta da haramcin "Rasha A Yau" da "Sputnik".
Yakin Tattalin Arziki - squib damp
Yakin tattalin arziki da Rasha wanda tuni aka fara shi a cikin 2014 ya dauki nauyin tarihi wanda ba a taba ganin irinsa ba bayan mamayar Rasha. Amma wannan bai yi wani tasiri a kan iya fada da Rasha ba. A gaskiya ma, tattalin arzikin Rasha ya ragu da kashi uku cikin 2022, duk da haka, Yukren ya ragu da kashi talatin. Yana haifar da tambayar, shin har yaushe Ukraine za ta iya jurewa irin wannan yakin na kabilanci?
A lokaci guda, takunkumin yana haifar da lahani ga tattalin arzikin duniya. Kudancin duniya a musamman ya fuskanci matsala. Takunkumin ya kara tsananta yunwa da fatara, yana kara hauhawar farashin kayayyaki, da kuma haifar da tashin hankali mai tsada a kasuwannin duniya. Don haka ba abin mamaki ba ne cewa Kudancin Duniya ba ya son shiga cikin yakin tattalin arziki kuma ba sa son ware Rasha. Wannan ba yakinta bane. Duk da haka, yakin tattalin arziki yana da mummunan tasiri a kan mu ma. Yankewar iskar gas ta Rasha na kara ta'azzara rikicin makamashi wanda ke shafar gidaje masu rauni a cikin al'umma kuma yana iya haifar da ficewa daga masana'antu masu karfin makamashi daga Jamus. Makamai da soja a kodayaushe suna cin gajiyar adalcin zamantakewa. A lokaci guda tare da iskar gas daga Amurka wanda ya kai kashi 40 cikin 2 mafi cutarwa ga yanayin fiye da iskar gas na Rasha, kuma tare da yin amfani da kwal, duk makasudin rage CO XNUMX sun riga sun sauka a cikin shara.
Cikakken fifiko ga diflomasiya, tattaunawa da sasantawa
Yaƙi yana ɗaukar albarkatun siyasa, tunani, ilimi da kayan aiki waɗanda ake buƙata cikin gaggawa don yaƙar sauyin yanayi, lalata muhalli da talauci. Shigar da Jamus ta yi a yakin ya raba kan al'umma musamman ma sassan da ke da himma wajen ci gaban zamantakewa da sauye-sauyen zamantakewa. Muna ba da shawarar cewa gwamnatin Jamus ta kawo karshen yakinta nan da nan. Dole ne Jamus ta fara wani shiri na diflomasiyya. Wannan shi ne abin da mafi yawan jama'a ke kira a kai. Muna bukatar tsagaita bude wuta da fara shawarwarin da ke kunshe cikin tsarin bangarori da dama da suka hada da shigar da MDD.
A ƙarshe, dole ne a sami zaman lafiya mai sassaucin ra'ayi wanda ke ba da hanyar samar da tsarin zaman lafiya na Turai wanda ya dace da bukatun tsaro na Ukraine, na Rasha da kuma na duk waɗanda ke cikin rikici da kuma ba da damar samun zaman lafiya a nan gaba ga nahiyarmu.
Rubutun ya rubuta ta: Reiner Braun (Hukumar Zaman Lafiya ta Duniya), Claudia Haydt (Cibiyar Bayani akan Militarization), Ralf Krämer (Socialist Left in the Party Die Linke), Willi van Ooyen (Peace and Future Workshop Frankfurt), Christof Ostheimer (Federal). Kwamitin zaman lafiya na kwamitin), Peter Wahl (Attac. Jamus). Bayanan sirri don bayani ne kawai
