Rabin tan miliyan na methane ya tashi daga bututun Nord Stream da aka lalata. Hoto: Guard Coast Guard
Daga Medea Benjamin da Nicolas JS Davies, World BEYOND War, Fabrairu 22, 2023
Yayin da yakin Ukraine ya kai shekara guda a ranar 24 ga watan Fabrairu, Rasha ba ta cimma nasarar soji ba amma kuma kasashen yammacin duniya ba su cimma manufarsu ta fuskar tattalin arziki ba. A lokacin da Rasha ta mamaye Ukraine, Amurka da kawayenta na Turai sun sha alwashin sanyawa Rasha gurgunta takunkumin da zai durkusar da Rasha tare da tilasta mata janyewa.
Takunkumin Yamma zai kafa sabon Labulen ƙarfe, ɗaruruwan mil zuwa gabas da tsohon, wanda ke raba keɓe, da aka sha kashi, mai fatara da Rasha daga sake haɗewa, cin nasara da wadata yamma. Ba wai kawai Rasha ta jure wa hare-haren ta'addanci ba, amma takunkumin ya karu - yana kaiwa ga kasashen da suka sanya su.
Takunkumin da kasashen yamma suka kakabawa kasar Rasha ya rage yawan man da ake samu a duniya, amma kuma ya kara tsadar kayayyaki. Don haka Rasha ta sami riba daga farashin mafi girma, duk da yadda yawan fitar da kayayyaki ya ragu. Asusun Ba da Lamuni na Duniya (IMF) rahoton cewa Tattalin arzikin Rasha ya samu kwangilar kashi 2.2 cikin 2022 kawai a shekarar 8.5, idan aka kwatanta da na XNUMX% na kwangilar da ta samu. forecast, kuma yana hasashen cewa a zahiri tattalin arzikin Rasha zai haɓaka da 0.3% a cikin 2023.
A daya hannun kuma, tattalin arzikin kasar Ukraine ya ragu da kashi 35 ko sama da haka, duk da taimakon tattalin arziki da yawansu ya kai dala biliyan 46 daga Amurka masu biyan haraji, sama da dala biliyan 67 na taimakon soja.
Tattalin arzikin kasashen Turai ma yana yin tasiri. Bayan haɓaka da 3.5% a cikin 2022, tattalin arzikin yankin na Yuro shine sa ran to stagnate da girma kawai 0.7% a cikin 2023, yayin da ake hasashen tattalin arzikin Birtaniyya zai iya yin kwangila da 0.6%. Jamus ta fi dogaro da makamashin Rasha da ake shigowa da ita fiye da sauran manyan ƙasashen Turai don haka, bayan da ta karu da kashi 1.9 cikin ɗari a shekarar 2022, ana hasashen za ta sami ci gaba da kashi 0.1 cikin 2023 a shekarar XNUMX. Masana'antun Jamus sun shirya tsaf. biya kusan kashi 40% na makamashi a cikin 2023 fiye da yadda ya yi a 2021.
Amurka ba ta da tasiri kai tsaye fiye da Turai, amma haɓakarta ya ragu daga 5.9% a cikin 2021 zuwa 2% a 2022, kuma ana hasashen zai ci gaba da raguwa, zuwa 1.4% a 2023 da 1% a 2024. A halin yanzu Indiya, wacce ta kasance tsaka tsaki. Yayin da ake sayan man fetur daga Rasha a farashi mai rahusa, ana hasashen zai ci gaba da samun karuwar karuwarsa a shekarar 2022 sama da kashi 6% a duk shekara duk a shekarar 2023 da 2024. Haka nan kasar Sin ta ci gajiyar sayan mai na Rasha mai rahusa da kuma karuwar ciniki gaba daya tare da Rasha da kashi 30%. a 2022. Tattalin arzikin kasar Sin ne sa ran don girma a 5% a wannan shekara.
Sauran masu samar da man fetur da iskar gas sun sami riba mai yawa daga illar takunkumin. GDP na Saudi Arabiya ya karu da kashi 8.7%, mafi sauri a cikin manyan kasashe masu karfin tattalin arziki, yayin da kamfanonin mai na yammacin Turai suka yi dariya har zuwa banki don ajiya. $ 200 biliyan a ribar: ExxonMobil ya samu dala biliyan 56, wanda ba a taba samu ba a wani kamfani mai suna Shell, yayin da Shell ya samu dala biliyan 40, Chevron da Total kuma sun samu dala biliyan 36 kowanne. BP ya samu "dala biliyan 28 kawai" yayin da ya rufe ayyukansa a Rasha, amma har yanzu ya ninka ribar da ya samu a shekarar 2021.
Dangane da iskar gas, US LNG (liquefied gas gas) masu samar da iskar gas kamar Cheniere da kamfanoni kamar Total da ke rarraba iskar gas a Turai. Sauya Samar da iskar gas ta Turai da Rasha ke samarwa da iskar gas daga Amurka, kusan sau hudu farashin da abokan cinikin Amurka ke biya, tare da m tasirin yanayi na fracking. Wani sanyi mai sanyi a Turai da kuma dala biliyan 850 a ciki Tallafin gwamnatin Turai ga gidaje da kamfanoni sun dawo da farashin makamashi na dillalai zuwa matakan 2021, amma bayan sun yi spiked sau biyar sama da lokacin bazara na 2022.
Yayin da yakin ya mayar da martabar Turai ga mulkin Amurka a cikin gajeren lokaci, wadannan tasirin yakin na iya samun sakamako daban-daban a cikin dogon lokaci. Shugaban Faransa Emmanuel Macron bayyana, "A cikin yanayin yanayin siyasa na yau, a tsakanin kasashen da ke goyon bayan Ukraine, akwai nau'i biyu da ake ƙirƙira a cikin kasuwar iskar gas: waɗanda ke biyan kuɗi da yawa da kuma masu sayarwa a farashi mai yawa ... Amurka ita ce mai samar da iskar gas mai arha wanda suke ana siyarwa akan farashi mai yawa… Ba na jin hakan sada zumunci ne.”
Wani abin da ya fi rashin sada zumunci shi ne zagon kasa da aka yi wa bututun iskar gas na Nord Stream wanda ya kawo iskar Rasha zuwa Jamus. Seymour Hersh ruwaito cewa Amurka ce ta fasa bututun mai, tare da taimakon Norway-kasashe biyu da suka raba kasar Rasha a matsayin kasashen Turai biyu. most masu samar da iskar gas. Haɗe tare da tsadar iskar gas na Amurka, wannan yana da fueled fushi a tsakanin jama'ar Turai. A cikin dogon lokaci, shugabannin Turai za su iya yanke shawarar cewa makomar yankin ta ta'allaka ne ga 'yancin siyasa da tattalin arziki daga kasashen da suka kaddamar da hare-haren soji, wanda hakan zai hada da Amurka da Rasha.
Sauran manyan masu nasara na yakin a Ukraine tabbas za su kasance masu yin makamai, wanda Amurka "manyan biyar" ke mamaye duniya: Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon da Janar Dynamics. Galibin makaman da aka aike zuwa Ukraine ya zuwa yanzu sun fito ne daga tarin tarin makamai da ake da su a Amurka da kasashen NATO. Izinin gina har ma da manyan sabbin hannun jari ya shiga Majalisa a cikin Disamba, amma sakamakon kwangilar bai bayyana ba tukuna a alkaluman tallace-tallace na kamfanonin makamai ko bayanan riba.
Madadin Reed-Inhofe kyautatuwa zuwa FY2023 Dokar Izinin Tsaro ta ƙasa ta ba da izinin "lokacin yaƙi" shekaru da yawa, kwangilar ba tare da izini ba don "sake" hannun jarin makaman da aka aika zuwa Ukraine, amma adadin makaman da za a siya ya wuce adadin da aka aika zuwa Ukraine har zuwa 500 zuwa ɗaya. . Tsohon babban jami'in OMB Marc Cancian yayi sharhi, "Wannan baya maye gurbin abin da muka baiwa [Ukraine]. Yana gina tarin tarin yawa don wani babban yakin kasa [da Rasha] a nan gaba."
Tun da kawai makamai sun fara jujjuya layin samar da kayayyaki don gina waɗannan haja, ƙimar ribar yaƙi da masana'antar kera makamai ta fi nunawa, a yanzu, a cikin 2022 yana ƙaruwa a farashin hannun jari: Lockheed Martin, sama da 37%; Northrop Grumman, sama da 41%; Raytheon, sama da 17%; da Janar Dynamics, sama da 19%.
Yayin da wasu kasashe da kamfanoni kadan suka ci gajiyar yakin, kasashen da ke nesa da inda ake fama da rikici na ta fama da tabarbarewar tattalin arziki. Rasha da Ukraine sun kasance masu samar da alkama, masara, man girki da takin zamani ga yawancin duniya. Yaki da takunkuman da aka kakaba mata sun haifar da karancin kayayyaki a dukkan wadannan kayayyaki, da kuma man da ake safarar su, lamarin da ya sa farashin abinci a duniya ya yi tashin gwauron zabi.
Don haka sauran manyan wadanda suka yi rashin nasara a wannan yakin su ne mutanen Kudancin Duniya wadanda suka dogara da su shigo da na abinci da taki daga Rasha da Ukraine don ciyar da iyalansu kawai. Masar da Turkiyya su ne ke kan gaba wajen shigo da alkama na Rasha da Ukraine, yayin da wasu kasashe goma sha biyu masu tsananin rauni suka dogara da Rasha da Ukraine gaba daya wajen samar da alkama, daga Bangladesh, Pakistan da Laos zuwa Benin, Ruwanda da Somaliya. Goma sha biyar Kasashen Afirka sun shigo da fiye da rabin alkama daga Rasha da Ukraine a cikin 2020.
Shirin samar da hatsi na Bahar Black wanda Majalisar Dinkin Duniya da Turkiyya suka kulla ya sassauta matsalar karancin abinci ga wasu kasashe, amma yarjejeniyar tana cikin hadari. Dole ne kwamitin sulhu na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ya sabunta shi kafin ya kare a ranar 18 ga Maris, 2023, amma har yanzu takunkumin da kasashen Yamma suka kakaba mata na hana fitar da takin Rasha zuwa kasashen waje, wanda ya kamata a kebe daga takunkumi a karkashin shirin hatsi. Shugaban agaji na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya Martin Griffiths ya shaida wa Kamfanin Dillancin Labarai na Faransa a ranar 15 ga Fabrairu cewa 'yantar da takin Rasha zuwa ketare shine "mafi fifiko."
Bayan shekara guda ana kashe-kashe da hallaka a Ukraine, muna iya shelanta cewa kasashen da suka ci nasara a wannan yakin su ne: Saudiyya; ExxonMobil da sauran katafaren mai; Lockheed Martin; da Northrop Grumman.
Wadanda suka yi hasarar su ne, na farko, al’ummar Ukraine da suka sadaukar da su, a bangarorin biyu na fagen daga, dukkan sojojin da suka rasa rayukansu da iyalansu da suka rasa ‘yan uwansu. Amma kuma a cikin ginshikin asarar akwai ma’aikata da talakawa a ko’ina, musamman a kasashen da ke Kudancin Duniya wadanda suka fi dogaro da abinci da makamashi da ake shigowa da su daga waje. Ƙarshe amma ba kalla ba shine Duniya, yanayinta da yanayinta - duk an sadaukar da su ga Allah na Yaƙi.
Don haka ne, yayin da yakin ya shiga shekara ta biyu, ana ta samun takun saka a duniya, na ganin bangarorin da ke rikici da juna su nemo mafita. Kalaman shugaban kasar Brazil Lula na nuni da irin yadda ake samun karuwar. Lokacin da Shugaba Biden ya matsa masa lamba ya aika da makamai zuwa Ukraine, ya ya ce, "Ba na son shiga wannan yakin, ina so in kawo karshensa."
Medea Benjamin da Nicolas JS Davies sune marubutan Yaƙi a Ukraine: Yin Ma'anar Rikici mara Ma'ana, akwai daga OR Littattafai a cikin Nuwamba 2022.
Medea Biliyaminu ita ce tushen haɗin gwiwa CODEPINK don Aminci, da marubucin littattafai da dama, ciki har da A cikin Iran: Gaskiya da Tarihin Jamhuriyar Musulunci ta Iran.
Nicolas JS Davies ɗan jarida ne mai zaman kansa, mai bincike tare da CODEPINK kuma marubucin Jini a Hannunmu: mamayar Amurkawa da lalata Iraki.
