Daga Medea Benjamin da Nicolas JS Davies, World BEYOND War, Janairu 25, 2023
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists ya fito da agogon Doomsday na 2023 bayani, suna kiran wannan lokacin “lokacin da ba a taɓa ganin irinsa ba.” Hakan dai ya kai ga dakika 90 zuwa tsakar dare, wanda ke nufin cewa duniya ta fi kusa da bala'o'in duniya fiye da kowane lokaci, musamman saboda rikicin da ake yi a kasar Ukraine ya kara hadarin yakin nukiliya. Wannan kima ta kimiya ya kamata ta farkar da shugabannin duniya kan wajabcin kawo bangarorin da ke da hannu a yakin Ukraine kan teburin sulhu.
Ya zuwa yanzu dai muhawarar da ake yi game da tattaunawar sulhu don warware rikicin ta ta'allaka ne kan abin da ya kamata kasashen Ukraine da Rasha su shirya domin kawo karshen yakin da kuma maido da zaman lafiya. Duk da haka, ganin cewa wannan yakin ba kawai tsakanin Rasha da Ukraine ba ne amma yana cikin "Sabon Yakin Cold" tsakanin Rasha da Amurka, ba kawai Rasha da Ukraine ba ne su yi la'akari da abin da za su iya kawowa a teburin don kawo karshensa. . Har ila yau, dole ne Amurka ta yi la'akari da irin matakan da za ta iya ɗauka don warware rikicin da ke tsakaninta da Rasha wanda ya haifar da wannan yakin tun da farko.
Rikicin geopolitical da ya kafa fagen yaƙi a Ukraine ya fara ne da karyewar NATO Alkawuran ba don fadada zuwa Gabashin Turai ba, kuma ya tsananta da ayyana a 2008 cewa Ukraine za ta ƙarshe shiga wannan da farko ƙawancen sojan yaƙi da Rasha.
Sa'an nan, a cikin 2014, Amurka mai goyon baya juyin mulki adawa da zababbiyar gwamnatin Ukraine ya haifar da wargajewar Ukraine. Kashi 51% na 'yan Ukrain da aka bincika sun gaya wa Gallup ra'ayin cewa sun amince da hakan bin doka na gwamnatin da aka yi juyin mulki, kuma da yawa daga cikin yankunan Crimea da na Donetsk da Luhansk sun kada kuri'ar ballewa daga Ukraine. Crimea ta koma Rasha, kuma sabuwar gwamnatin Ukraine ta kaddamar da yakin basasa da 'yan jamhuriyar jama'ar Donetsk da Luhansk da suka ayyana kansu "Jamhuriyar Jama'a".
Yakin basasa ya kashe kimanin mutane 14,000, amma yarjejeniyar Minsk II a 2015 ta kafa tsagaita bude wuta da yanki mai shinge tare da ikon sarrafawa, tare da 1,300 na kasa da kasa. OSCE masu sa ido da ma'aikatan tsagaita wuta. An dai shafe tsawon shekaru bakwai ana tsagaita bude wuta, da kuma asarar rayuka ki yarda sosai daga shekara zuwa shekara. Amma gwamnatin Ukraine ba ta taba warware rikicin siyasar da ya kunno kai ba ta hanyar bai wa Donetsk da Luhansk matsayin cin gashin kai da ta yi musu alkawari a yarjejeniyar Minsk II.
Yanzu tsohuwar shugabar gwamnatin Jamus Angela Merkel da shugaban Faransa Francois Holland Sun yarda cewa shugabannin yammacin Turai sun amince da yarjejeniyar Minsk II don sayen lokaci, ta yadda za su iya gina sojojin Ukraine don kwato Donetsk da Luhansk da karfi.
A watan Maris din shekarar 2022, wata daya bayan mamayar Rasha, an gudanar da shawarwarin tsagaita wuta a Turkiyya. Rasha da Ukraine ya zana 15-point "yarjejeniyar rashin daidaituwa," wanda Shugaba Zelenskyy ya gabatar da shi a fili da kuma bayyana ga jama'arsa a wani shirin talabijin na kasa a ranar 27 ga Maris. Rasha ta amince da janyewa daga yankunan da ta mamaye tun bayan mamayar a watan Fabrairun da ya gabata, domin musanya alkawarin Ukraine na kin shiga kungiyar tsaro ta NATO ko kuma karbar sansanonin sojin kasashen waje. Wannan tsarin ya kuma haɗa da shawarwari don warware makomar Crimea da Donbas.
Amma a cikin watan Afrilu, kawayen Ukraine na yammacin Turai, musamman Amurka da Birtaniya, sun ki amincewa da yarjejeniyar tsaka-tsakin, tare da shawo kan Ukraine ta yi watsi da shawarwarin da ta yi da Rasha. Jami'an Amurka da na Burtaniya sun ce a lokacin sun ga dama "latsa" da kuma "rauni" Rasha, da kuma cewa suna son yin amfani da wannan damar.
Matakin da gwamnatocin Amurka da na Biritaniya suka dauka na murkushe yarjejeniyar tsaka-tsakin Ukraine a cikin watan biyu na yakin, ya haifar da tsawaita rikici da barna tare da dubban daruruwan mutane. wadanda suka mutu. Babu wani bangare da zai iya kayar da daya, kuma kowane sabon tashin hankali yana kara hadarin "babban yaki tsakanin NATO da Rasha," kamar yadda Sakatare Janar na NATO Jens Stoltenberg kwanan nan. gargadi.
Shugabannin Amurka da NATO yanzu da'awar don tallafawa komawa kan teburin shawarwarin da suka ɗaga a cikin watan Afrilu, tare da wannan burin na cimma janyewar Rasha daga yankin da ta mamaye tun Fabrairu. Sun fahimci a fakaice cewa ƙarin watanni tara na yakin da ba dole ba kuma mai zubar da jini ya kasa inganta matsayin tattaunawar Ukraine sosai.
Maimakon tura karin makamai kawai don rura wutar yakin da ba za a iya cin nasara a fagen daga ba, shugabannin kasashen Yamma suna da babban nauyi na taimakawa sake fara shawarwari da tabbatar da cewa sun yi nasara a wannan karon. Wani fiasco na diflomasiyya kamar wanda suka yi injiniya a watan Afrilu zai zama bala'i ga Ukraine da duniya.
To ko me Amurka za ta iya kawowa kan teburin domin taimakawa wajen ganin an samu zaman lafiya a Ukraine da kuma dakile mummunan yakin cacar baka da Rasha?
Kamar Rikicin Makami mai linzami na Cuba a lokacin yakin cacar baka na asali, wannan rikicin na iya zama sanadin diflomasiyya mai tsanani don warware tabarbarewar dangantakar Amurka da Rasha. Maimakon yin haɗari da lalata makaman nukiliya a cikin ƙoƙari na "raunana" Rasha, Amurka za ta iya amfani da wannan rikici don buɗe wani sabon zamani na sarrafa makaman nukiliya, yarjejeniyar kwance damara da hulɗar diflomasiyya.
Shekaru da dama, shugaba Putin ya koka game da dimbin sawun sojojin Amurka a Gabashi da Tsakiyar Turai. Amma bayan mamayewar da Rasha ta yi wa Ukraine, Amurka ta yi an ci gaba kasancewar sojojin turawa. Ya kara da jimillar turawa Sojojin Amurka a Turai daga 80,000 kafin Fabrairu 2022 zuwa kusan 100,000. Ta aike da jiragen ruwa na yaki zuwa Spain, da jiragen yaki zuwa Birtaniya, da sojoji zuwa Romania da Baltic, da kuma tsarin tsaron sama zuwa Jamus da Italiya.
Tun kafin kai wa Rasha hari, Amurka ta fara fadada kasancewarta a sansanin makami mai linzami da ke Romania wanda Rasha ta ki amincewa da shi tun lokacin da ta fara aiki a shekarar 2016. Sojojin Amurka ma sun gina abin da jaridar New York Times ta yi. kira "shigar sojan Amurka mai matukar kulawa” a Poland mai nisan mil 100 daga yankin Rasha. Sansanonin a Poland da Romania suna da na'urorin radar na zamani don bin diddigin makamai masu linzami da makamai masu linzami don harba su.
Rashawa sun damu da cewa ana iya sake dawo da waɗannan kayan aikin don harba makamai masu linzami ko makaman nukiliya, kuma sune ainihin abin da 1972 ABM (Anti-Ballistic Missile) Yarjejeniyar An haramta tsakanin Amurka da Tarayyar Soviet, har sai Shugaba Bush ya janye daga cikinta a 2002.
Yayin da ma'aikatar tsaron Amurka ta Pentagon ta bayyana wuraren biyu a matsayin na tsaro da kuma nuna ba a kai su ga Rasha ba, Putin ya yi nace cewa sansanonin shaida ne na barazanar da kungiyar tsaro ta NATO ke yi a gabas.
Anan akwai wasu matakai da Amurka za ta yi la'akari da sanyawa kan teburin fara wargaza waɗannan tashe-tashen hankula da ke tasowa da kuma inganta damar da za a samu na tsagaita wuta da yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya a Ukraine:
- Amurka da sauran kasashen yammacin duniya za su iya goyan bayan tsaka-tsakin Ukraine ta hanyar amincewa da shiga cikin irin tabbacin tsaro da Ukraine da Rasha suka amince da shi a watan Maris, amma Amurka da Birtaniya suka yi watsi da shi.
- Amurka da kawayenta na kungiyar tsaro ta NATO na iya sanar da Rashawa tun da wuri a tattaunawar cewa a shirye suke su dage takunkumin da suka kakaba wa Rasha a matsayin wani bangare na yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya.
- Amurka na iya amincewa da rage yawan dakaru 100,000 da take da su a Turai a yanzu, da kuma kawar da makamanta masu linzami daga Romania da Poland tare da mika wa kasashensu sansanonin.
- Amurka za ta iya yin aiki tare da Rasha kan yarjejeniyar dawo da rage yawan makamanta na nukiliya, da kuma dakatar da shirin da kasashen biyu ke yi na kera makamai masu hadari. Haka kuma za su iya maido da yarjejeniyar bude sararin samaniya, wadda Amurka ta fice daga cikinta a shekarar 2020, ta yadda bangarorin biyu za su iya tabbatar da cewa dayan na cirewa da kuma wargaza makaman da suka amince a kawar.
- Amurka za ta iya bude wata tattaunawa kan kawar da makamanta na nukiliya daga kasashen Turai biyar da suke a halin yanzu aikawa: Jamus, Italiya, Netherlands, Belgium da Turkiyya.
Idan har Amurka na son sanya wadannan sauye-sauyen siyasa a kan teburin tattaunawa da Rasha, zai saukaka wa Rasha da Ukraine cimma yarjejeniyar tsagaita bude wuta da za su amince da juna, da kuma taimakawa wajen tabbatar da zaman lafiyar da suke tattaunawa ya kasance mai dorewa kuma mai dorewa. .
Rage yakin cacar-baka da Rasha zai baiwa Rasha gagarumar nasara ta nunawa 'yan kasarta yayin da take ja da baya daga Ukraine. Har ila yau, zai bai wa Amurka damar rage yawan kudaden da take kashewa a aikin soji, da baiwa kasashen Turai damar kula da harkokin tsaron nasu, kamar yadda akasarin su. mutane so.
Tattaunawar Amurka da Rasha ba za ta kasance mai sauƙi ba, amma yunƙurin warware bambance-bambance na gaskiya zai haifar da wani sabon yanayi wanda kowane mataki zai iya ɗauka tare da kwarin gwiwa yayin da tsarin samar da zaman lafiya ke gina nasa.
Galibin al'ummar duniya za su yi lumfashi don ganin an samu ci gaba wajen kawo karshen yakin da ake yi a Ukraine, da kuma ganin Amurka da Rasha suna aiki tare don rage hadurran da ke tattare da karfin soja da nuna adawarsu. Wannan ya kamata ya haifar da ingantacciyar haɗin gwiwar kasa da kasa kan wasu munanan rikice-rikicen da duniya ke fuskanta a wannan karni - kuma yana iya ma fara mayar da hannun agogon Doomsday ta hanyar sanya duniya ta zama wuri mafi aminci gare mu duka.
Medea Benjamin da Nicolas JS Davies sune marubutan Yaƙi a Ukraine: Yin Ma'anar Rikici mara Ma'ana, akwai daga OR Littattafai a cikin Nuwamba 2022.
Medea Biliyaminu ita ce tushen haɗin gwiwa CODEPINK don Aminci, da marubucin littattafai da dama, ciki har da A cikin Iran: Gaskiya da Tarihin Jamhuriyar Musulunci ta Iran.
Nicolas JS Davies ɗan jarida ne mai zaman kansa, mai bincike tare da CODEPINK kuma marubucin Jini a Hannunmu: mamayar Amurkawa da lalata Iraki.
