m: Kwanan baya na Amurka a Ukraine a 2014 ya haifar da wani sabon yakin da Rasha, amma shugaba Trump zai iya kawo karshen tashin hankali tare da hanyar da ta dace don warware rikicin Ukraine, in ji Jonathan Marshall.
Daga Jonathan Marshall, Consortium News
Idan Donald Trump yana so ya yi alƙawarin da ya dace a kan manufofi na kasashen waje na Amurka a farkon shugabancinsa, babu wuri mafi kyau da za a fara fiye da taimakawa wajen kawo karshen yakin basasa a Ukraine wanda ke da da'awar wasu rayukan 10,000.
Gwamnatin Obama ya taimaka wajen kawar da wannan yaki ta hanyar yunƙurin yanki Ukraine daga rukuni na Rasha da kuma cikin tsaro na yammacin Turai da tattalin arziki. Da yake aiki tare da Tarayyar Turai, Washington ta dakatar da zanga-zangar zanga-zanga a kan tituna wanda ya haifar da mummunar tashin hankalin da Kiev ya zaba a watan Fabrairu na 2014. Moscow ta hanyar yin amfani da shi (ko kuma, dangane da ra'ayinka, sake haɗuwa da) Crimea, wanda shine hedkwatar Moscow na Black Sea Fleet, da kuma tallafa wa masu rarraba Rasha a yankunan gabashin Donetsk da Luhansk.
Tun daga wannan lokacin, bangarorin biyu sunyi yaki da mummunan jini. Bayan kashe dubban fararen hula, yakin yana da sunk Ukraine ta tattalin arziki da kuma inganta cin hanci da rashawa. Takunkumin Amurka da EU sun jawo tattalin arzikin Rasha da haɗin gwiwa tsakanin Washington da Moscow a wasu wasannin kwaikwayo. Harkokin tashin hankali tsakanin NATO da Rasha sun haifar da rashin daidaito rikici na soja tsakanin manyan wurare mafi girma a duniya.
Kasancewa mafi kyau ga Ukraine - da sabunta hadin gwiwar Gabas da Yamma - ita ce yarjejeniyar Minsk, wadda ta rattaba hannu tsakanin Ukrainian, Rasha da Turai a babban birnin Belarus a watan Satumba na 5, 2014. Yarjejeniyar da aka bayar don tsagaita bude wuta, musayar fursunoni, da tsarin tsarin sulhu na siyasa bisa ga bai wa Donetsk da Luhansk yankuna "matsayi na musamman."
Wannan yarjejeniya ta rushe a cikin rikice-rikice har sai jam'iyyun sun sanya hannu kan Yarjejeniyar Minsk-2 a ranar Feb. 12, 2015. Ya bayar da tsarin sake fasalin tsarin mulki, za ~ u ~~ uka a jihohin biyu, da kuma mayar da mulkin {asar Ukraine kan iyakarta. Amma Kiev bai yi wani matsayi mai tsanani ba don gane matsayin da ya dace na yankunan da ke kan iyaka, kuma bangarori biyu sun shiga tashin hankali tun daga lokacin.
Final Words
Shugabannin Obama da Putin sun musayar abin da zai iya zama ƙarshensu, abin banƙyama kalmomi a kan batun a taron taron hadin gwiwar tattalin arzikin Asia da Pacific na Peru a wannan watan. Obama ya bukaci shugaba Putin ya amince da alkawurran Rasha a karkashin yarjejeniyar Minsk, "yayin da kakakin Rasha ya ce maza biyu" sun yi nadama cewa ba zai yiwu a ci gaba a Ukraine ba. "
Kamar yadda sha'anin manufofin kasashen waje na yanzu suka tafi, duk da haka, Ukrainian imbroglio na iya bayar da damar mafi girma don tsaftacewa. Yin haka zai bukaci bangarorin biyu su amince da wasu kuskure kuma su sami hanyoyi masu mahimmanci don ajiye fuskar.
Abin farin cikin, Kwamitin Zaɓaɓɓen Kira ya kafa wani bude don wannan tsari ta hanyar kai ga Putin a lokacin yakin zabe a bayyane yake raguwa don rushe Rasha saboda haɗin da ya yi na Crimea (wanda ya biyo bayan zaben raba gardama da sauri), inda sakamakon sakamakon ya nuna cewa 96 bisa dari na masu jefa kuri'a sun yi farin ciki barin barin Ukraine da kuma komawa Rasha.
Har ila yau, akwai ƙananan alamun ci gaban da ke ba da bege. Ƙididdigar iyakacin da aka sanya a watan Satumba ya kai ga komawa juna by sojojin Ukrainian da kuma pro-Rasha separatists daga wani karamin birnin a gabashin Ukraine. An tabbatar da janyewa daga masu kallo daga Kungiyar Tsaro da Haɗin kai a Turai (OSCE), wata ƙungiya zuwa yarjejeniyar Minsk. A halin yanzu, Ukraine, Jamus, Faransa da Rasha sune aiki a sabon hanyar hanya don ƙarfafa tsagaita wuta.
Yanayi don Aminci
A cikin hira na Yuni 2015 tare da Charlie Rose, Putin an tsara shi a fili da kuma dacewa don sanya Minsk yarjejeniya tsaya:
“A yau muna matukar bukatar mu bi duk yarjejeniyoyin da aka kulla a Minsk… A lokaci guda, Ina so in zana. . . hankalin dukan abokanmu ga gaskiyar cewa ba za mu iya yin sa ba tare da ɓata lokaci ba. Muna ci gaba da jin abu iri ɗaya, ana maimaita shi kamar mantra - cewa Rasha ya kamata ta shafi kudu maso gabashin Ukraine. Muna. Koyaya, ba shi yiwuwa a warware matsalar ta hanyar tasirinmu a kudu maso gabas kawai.
“Dole ne ya zama akwai tasiri a kan manyan jami'ai na yanzu a Kiev, abin da ba za mu iya yi ba. Wannan hanya ce da abokan aikinmu na yamma zasu bi - waɗanda suke cikin Turai da Amurka. Bari muyi aiki tare. … Mun yi imanin cewa don warware matsalar muna bukatar aiwatar da yarjejeniyar Minsk, kamar yadda na fada. Abubuwan sulhun siyasa sune mahimmanci anan. Akwai da yawa. . . .
“Na farko shi ne sake fasalin tsarin mulki, kuma yarjejeniyar Minsk ta fada karara: don samar da ikon cin gashin kai ko kuma, kamar yadda suke fada, rarraba karfin iko. . .
“Abu na biyu da za a yi - dokar da aka zartar a baya game da matsayi na musamman na. . . Luhansk da Donetsk, jamhuriyoyin da ba a san su ba, ya kamata a kafa. An wuce shi, amma har yanzu ba a yi aiki da shi ba. Wannan yana buƙatar ƙuduri na Babban Rada - Majalisar Dokokin Ukraine - wanda kuma aka rufe shi a cikin yarjejeniyar Minsk. . . .
“Abu na uku shine doka kan afuwa. Ba shi yiwuwa a yi tattaunawar siyasa da mutanen da ke fuskantar barazanar zalunci. Kuma a ƙarshe, suna buƙatar zartar da doka game da zaɓen ƙananan hukumomi a waɗannan yankuna da kuma yin zaɓen da kansu. Duk wannan an fayyace shi a cikin yarjejeniyar Minsk. . . .
"Na maimaita, yana da muhimmanci a yanzu a tattauna kai tsaye tsakanin Luhansk, Donetsk da Kiev - wannan ya bata."
Nan gaba na Crimea
Duk wani sulhu na zaman lafiya zai bukaci wani sulhu game da Crimea, wanda Putin ya yi alwashi ba zai taba barinsa ba.
Kamar yadda Ray McGovern, tsohon masanin {asar Rasha, na CIA, ya lura, haɗin Crimea ya karya alkawarin da Rasha ta yi a 1994 - tare da Birtaniya da kuma Amurka - "don girmama 'yancin kai da ikon sarauta da kuma iyakokin Ukraine," kamar yadda ya kamata Ukraine ta ba da makaman nukiliya. Hakika, {asar Amirka da EU sun saba wa wannan alkawarin, ta hanyar goyon bayan juyin mulki, game da gwamnatin za ~ en.
McGovern ya ambaci wasu “yanayi na ban mamaki, gami da fargaba tsakanin masu aikata laifuka game da abin da korar shugaban Ukraine ya sabawa tsarin mulki zai iya zama a gare su, haka kuma ba mafarki mai ban tsoro da Moscow ke yi na NATO ta mamaye manyan Rasha, kuma ruwan dumi ne kawai, sansanin sojan ruwa a Sevastopol da ke Crimea . ”
A cikin goyon baya na haɗawa, hukumomin Rasha da na Crimean sun nuna cewa da sauri raba gardama wanda aka gudanar a Crimea a cikin watan Maris 2014, wanda ya haifar da goyon bayan 96 don sake haɗuwa tare da Rasha, dangantaka da ta kasance a cikin karni na sha takwas. Bayan zabe na Crimean ra'ayi, wanda kamfanoni na Yammacin Turai ke gudanarwa, sun nuna goyon baya ga raba gardama ta 2014 don shiga Rasha. Amma raba gardama ba su da masu kallo na kasa da kasa kuma Amurka da sauran ƙasashen yammacin Turai ba su karɓa ba.
Yarda da haɗawa a cikin maganganu masu tasowa game da "bin doka" da kuma sadaukar da kai ga Amurka game da ka'idodin duniya, Shugaba Obama ya bambanta Crimea da Kosovo, wanda NATO ta yi watsi da Serbia a 1999.
Obama ya ce, "Kosovo ya bar Serbia ne kawai bayan da aka gudanar da zaben raba gardama ba bisa ga iyakokin dokokin duniya ba, amma tare da hadin kai da Majalisar Dinkin Duniya tare da makwabtan Kosovo. Babu wani daga cikin wannan har ma ya zo kusa da faruwa a Crimea. "
A gaskiya, babu wani abu da ya faru a Kosovo, ko dai. Tarihin Obama shine labari ne, amma ya tabbatar da gaskiyar da aka ba da kyauta ta hanyar karɓar kyauta, kamar waɗanda suke a Birtaniya a kan 'yanci na Scotland ko Brexit.
Duk da haka, a matsayin wani ɓangare na zaman lafiya na mafi girma a Ukraine, masu sanya hannu a Minsk zasu yarda su riƙe wani kuri'un raba gardama a Crimea karkashin kulawar duniya don yanke shawarar ko ta tsaya a karkashin mulkin Rasha ko kuma koma Ukraine.
Don samun sayen sayan Rasha, Amurka da abokan tarayyar Turai sun yarda su cire takunkumi idan Moscow ta kasance ta hanyar raba gardama da sauran ka'idoji na Minsk. Har ila yau, sun yarda su yi watsi da shigar da Ukraine zuwa NATO, ainihin zunubin da ya shuka tsaba tsakanin rikicin Rasha da yamma. Rasha, ta biyun, za ta iya yarda ya rushe iyakarta tare da Ukraine.
Matsaloli don Shirin
Shugaban kasar Putin ya nuna cewa yana son yin sulhu a hanyoyi da dama, ciki har da harbe-harbe babban jami'in ma'aikatansa, Sergei Ivanov, da kuma maraba kasancewar masu lura da makamai daga OSCE don kula da yarjejeniyar Minsk.
Amma manyan matsaloli har yanzu suna hana ci gaba. Daya ne Shugaban kasar Petro Poroshenko ya suma a fuskar 'yan adawa zuwa yarjejeniyar Minsk ta hanyar 'Yan kasar Ukrainian. Kiev ya kamata a ba shi kyakkyawar zabi: tafi shi kadai, ko daidaitawa idan yana so ci gaba da tallafin tattalin arziki daga Amurka da Yammacin Turai. Gwamnatin Obama na da kwanciyar hankali bukaci Gwamnatin Poroshenko ta amince da yarjejeniyar ta Minsk, amma bai taba yin hakora ba bayan bukatunsa.
Wani babban mawuyacin hali shi ne haɓaka daga 'yan tawayen militarist a yammacin kasar wanda ya bukaci gwamnatin Yemen ta daura makamai. Misalai na farko sun hada da babban mahimman manufar Gwamnatin Jihar ta Ukraine, Victoria Nuland; tsohon kwamandan NATO Janar Philip Breedlove, wanda ya zama m don bayar da gargaɗin da aka yi wa manema labarai game da ayyukan soja na Rasha; Mataimakin kwamiti na Majalisar Dattijai John McCain; kuma Stephen Hadley, Kungiyar Raytheon da tsohon magatakarda tsaro na kasa ga Shugaba George W. Bush, wanda kujeru Cibiyar Cibiyar Aminci ta {asar Amirka, mai suna Orwellian, mai suna {asar Amirka.
Amma ƙararraki za ta zama babban kwamandan kwamandan domin ya ki amincewa da shawararsu kuma ya kafa sabon jagoran kungiyar NATO akan Ukraine da Rasha gaba daya. Yana da duk abin da ya samu ta hanyar warware rikicin siyasa da Moscow.
Abokan da ke cikin Kremlin zai inganta yanayin da zai iya yi a Gabas ta Tsakiya, da neman wata hanya daga Afghanistan, da kuma kula da kasar Sin.
Kwanan watanni na gaba ya kamata mu gaya mana ko Turi yana da 'yancin kai, tunaninsa, da kuma bugu don yin abin da ke daidai.
