A koyaushe ina jin dadin goyon baya ga shawarwari na zaman lafiya, wanda aka watsar da shi sau da yawa a cikin rikice-rikice na cikin gida da na duniya. Amma a bayyane yake cewa taron kasa da kasa kan Syria da ke gudanar da taron farko a Vienna a ranar 30 na XNUMX wani taro ne wanda ba zai iya kawo karshen tattaunawar zaman lafiya ba, kuma gwamnatin Obama ta san cewa daidai ne daga farkon.

Gwamnatin tana nuna gaskiyar cewa an gayyaci Iran don halartar taron, ba kamar taron da Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta shirya a baya ba game da Siriya a watan Janairu da Fabrairu 2014. Wancan taron mara dadi ya cire Iran din saboda nacewar Amurka da kawayenta na Sunni, duk da cewa jihohi da yawa ba tare da wata 'yar karamar damar bayar da gudummawa ba wajen sasantawa - da kuma Vatican - suna daga cikin mahalarta taron wadanda ba' yan Siriya ba 40.

Kasancewar Iran a taron na Vienna na nuna kyakkyawan mataki. Koyaya, taron ya kasance da mahimmancin wauta: babu ɗayan ɓangarorin Siriya da ke cikin yaƙin da aka gayyata. Tattaunawar 2014 a kalla tana da wakilai na gwamnatin Assad da wasu 'yan adawa masu dauke da makamai. Tabbataccen abin da wannan shawarar ta nuna shi ne cewa, ana sa ran wakilan kasashen waje na bangarorin Siriya - musamman Rasha, Iran da Saudi Arabiya - za su matsa zuwa ga tsarin sasantawa sannan kuma su yi amfani da karfin da suke da shi ga abokan huldar don tilasta karbar yarjejeniyar.

Misalin Vietnam

Manufar yin watsi da jam'iyyun Siriya zuwa rikice-rikicen ta hanyar yin amfani da ikon waje don tattaunawa kan yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya a madadin shi abokan ciniki yana daidai da mahimmanci. Babban shari'ar irin wannan tsari shine tattaunawar Amurka game da Yarjejeniya ta Paris tare da Arewacin Vietnam a Janairu 1973 don kawo karshen yakin Amurka a Vietnam. Gwamnatin Amurka ta dogara ga taimakon Amurka da kuma nauyin sojojin Amurka a Vietnam sun tabbatar da karbar takaddamar ta Thieu.

Amma ya kamata a lura cewa tsari bai kawo ƙarshen yaki ba. Gwamnatin Thine ba ta daina bin wata yarjejeniya ko sulhu na siyasa, kuma yakin ya ci gaba da shekaru biyu kafin wani babban mummunar cutar ta arewacin Vietnam ya ƙare a 1975.

Har ma mafi mahimmanci game da yadda ake amfani da samfurin zuwa Siriya na Sham shi ne bambancin da ke tsakanin Amurka da Amurka wajen yin shawarwari a kan shugabancin 'yan Vietnamese da kuma Iran da Rasha a kan gwamnatin Syria. {Asar Amirka na yin shawarwari ne, don samun damar za ~ en da ya fara, kamar yadda Iraki ke yi, a cikin tunanin da ya yi, cewa, ikonsa na da iko, game da halin da ake ciki, inda aka tilasta shi ya kawo karshen matsalolin siyasar gida. Iran, a gefe guda, yana yaki da yaki a Siriya cewa yana da muhimmanci ga tsaro. Kuma Rasha ta siyasa da tsaro tsaro a Syria na iya zama ƙasa da yanke-yanke, amma kuma yana da wani dalili don yarda da wani shiri da zai hadarin nasara ga ta'addanci a Siriya.

Eclipse na 'matsakaici' 'yan adawa

Batun isar da dakarun da ke adawa da gwamnatin Assad a wani sulhu ya fi sauki. Idan sojojin adawa masu goyon bayan Amurka da ke fuskantar gwamnatin Siriya da kawayenta na kasashen waje suna da isasshen karfin da za su yi wa gwamnatin barazana to hakan na iya zama wata makasudin tattaunawar sulhu. Gwamnatin Obama ta yi kokarin kirkirar tunanin cewa sojojin "masu matsakaicin ra'ayi" - ma'ana wadanda suke shirye su yi aiki tare da Amurka - su ne 'yan adawar soja na farko ga gwamnatin Assad. A zahiri, duk da haka, waɗancan rundunonin "matsakaita" ko dai sun shagaltar da su ko sun yi ƙawance da masu jihadi na al-Nusra Front da ƙawayenta.

Wannan rikice-rikice a cikin yanayin adawa da makamai zuwa Assad shine farkon bayyana a watan Satumba na 2013. Wannan shi ne lokacin da manyan manyan 'yan takara guda uku na "Islama" ba zato ba tsammani shiga tare da abokan adawar Al-Nusra gaban adawa da Jamhuriyyar Siriya ta Syria, wadda aka kafa a Doha a watan Nuwamba na 2012 karkashin matsin lamba daga Amurka da Gulf.

Shirin da aka kai ga jihadist na yaki da gwamnatin Assad ya karu tsakanin watan Nuwamba 2014 da Maris 2015 lokacin da Sham a Gabatarwa da Harakat al-Hazm kungiyoyi, manyan kungiyoyin 'yan tawaye guda biyu da suke sayen makami daga CIA ko Saudis, sun kai hari kuma Al-Nusra Front ya cike su da yawa.

Wannan motsawa yana da mahimmanci aukuwa ga yiwuwar yin shawarwari. A taron Majalisar Dinkin Duniya na Lakhdar Brahimi na Geneva II a watan Janairu 2014, ƙungiyoyin adawa kawai a teburin su ne wadanda wakilan gwamnatin kasar Sham da ke goyon bayan Amurka suka wakilta, wanda babu wanda ya dauki matsayi na matsayi na duk wata barazana ga soja ga gwamnatin. Bace daga taron shi ne alamar Musulunci da ake kira Al-Qaeda a Siriya, al-Nusra Front da abokansa, wanda ya wakilci irin wannan barazanar.

Kishin Nusra ga tattaunawa

Amma ba musulunci ko Musulunci ko Nusra-Front-led-Islama masu sha'awar da kadan a cikin taron zaman lafiya. Shugaban rundunar soja na Musulunci Front, wanda ke da alaka da al-Nusra, Ahrar al-Sham, ya bayyana cewa zai yi la'akari yan gudun hijirar ta kowane bangare na 'yan tawaye a cikin zaman lafiya suna tattaunawa a matsayin "cin amana".

Abin da Gwamnatin Obama ta ce yana son ganin fitowa daga taron Vienna shine "taswirar taswirar" don canzawa cikin iko. Gwamnatin ta bayyana a fili cewa, yana so ya kare cibiyoyin gwamnatin Sham, ciki har da tsarin soja na Siriya. Amma Jam'iyyar musulunci biyu da hadin gwiwar al-Qaida sune kungiyoyi masu tsattsauran ra'ayi na Sunni waɗanda ba su boye da nufin su maye gurbin gwamnatin Assad ba tare da tsarin musulunci wanda ba shi da wani abu na kayan aiki na yanzu.

Gwamnatin Assad ba ta da wata damuwa, saboda haka, har ma da alama a kowane sauƙi game da bukatar Assad ya tashi daga Siriya, lokacin da ya san babu yiwuwar yin sulhu ko sulhu tare da Islama da Al-Nusra Front. Hakazalika, ba Rashawa ko Iran zasu iya jaddada hannun Assad akan batun ba kawai don tattaunawa tare da raunin da ya fi karfi a cikin 'yan adawa.

Amurka ƙarya ƙarya a kan Siriya

Har ila yau, shugabannin gwamnatin Obama sun bayyana cewa ba za su yarda da abubuwan da ba su dace ba don magance tashar furofaganda a kan Siriya, wanda shine Rasha da Iran su kula da matsalar ta yadda za su yi watsi da rikici daga gwamnatin Assad. Sakataren Gwamnati, John Kerry da shawara a cikin hira da tashar TV ta Kazakhstan Bayan 'yan kwanaki bayan taron na Vienna ya shirya cewa "hanyar da za a kawo karshen yakin shine a nemi Mista Assad don taimakawa wajen sauya mulki a sabuwar gwamnati". Rasha ta kasa yin hakan, kuma a maimakon haka, "yana nan ne kawai don tallafa wa gwamnatin Assad," inji Kerry, inda ya kara da cewa "'yan adawa ba za su daina yakar Assad ba."

Babu shakku cewa Kerry yayi kuskure irin wannan matsayin na farfaganda don yanayin rikice-rikicen siyasa da soja na Siriya. Amma bai dace da siyasa ba don a yarda da waɗancan abubuwan. Wannan zai iya kiran tambayoyin da ba'a so game da shawarar da gwamnatin ta yanke a cikin 2011 don daidaita manufofinta tare da 'yan Siriya a Riyadh, Doha da Istanbul waɗanda suka himmatu ga canjin mulki a Siriya cewa ba su da damuwa kawai ga ayyukan jihadi a Syria amma suna ganin ta kayan aiki mai amfani don kawar da Assad.

Yanzu farashin dabarun siyasa na diplomasiyya na Obama ya kasance wani taro na zaman lafiya wanda ke ɓatar da sauran kasashen duniya game da rashin fahimta game da yakin.

- Gareth Porter wani jarida ne mai bincike mai zaman kansa kuma ya lashe kyautar 2012 Gellhorn don aikin jarida. Shi ne mawallafi na sabuwar bugawa Manufa Cured: The Untold Story of Iran Nuclear Scare.