Tsoron Yaƙi na 1983: Yaƙin Yaƙin Yafi Mafi Haɗari?

A ranar Asabar din da ta gabata ne aka cika shekaru 77 da kai harin bam na nukiliya a Hiroshima a ranar 6 ga Agustan 1945, yayin da ranar Talata ake tunawa da harin bam na Nagasaki a ranar 9 ga Agusta, wanda aka nuna a nan. A cikin duniyar da tashe-tashen hankula tsakanin manyan kasashen da ke da makaman kare dangi suka yi tashin gwauron zabo, za a iya tambayar gaskiya ko za mu kai ga 78 ba tare da sake amfani da bama-baman nukiliya ba? Yana da mahimmanci mu tuna da darussan daya daga cikin kiran kusa da makamin kare dangi na yakin cacar baka lokacin da, kamar yau, sadarwa tsakanin kasashen nukiliya ta lalace.

Patrick Mazza, The Raven, Satumba 26, 2022

Kiran kusa da makaman nukiliya na Able Archer '83

A bakin ciki ba tare da saninsa ba

Lokaci ne da ake takun saka tsakanin Amurka da Tarayyar Soviet, lokacin da hanyoyin sadarwa ke tabarbarewa, kuma kowane bangare ya yi kuskure wajen fassara dalilan da suka sa daya. Ya haifar da abin da zai iya zama goga mafi kusa tare da kisan kare dangi a cikin Yaƙin Cold. Ko da a firgice, wani bangare bai gane hatsarin ba sai bayan faruwar lamarin.

A cikin mako na biyu na Nuwamba 1983, NATO ta gudanar da Able Archer, wani atisayen kwaikwayo na haɓaka yakin nukiliya a rikicin Turai tsakanin yamma da Soviets. Jagorancin Soviet, wanda ke jin tsoron Amurka na shirin kai hari na farko na nukiliya a kan Tarayyar Soviet, wanda ake zargi da karfin ikon Able Archer ba motsa jiki ba ne, amma abin rufewa ga ainihin abu. Sabbin al'amuran motsa jiki sun ƙarfafa imaninsu. Sojojin Soviet na nukiliya sun ci gaba da faɗakar da gashi, kuma wataƙila shugabannin sun yi tunanin wani yajin aikin riga-kafi. Sojojin Amurka, suna sane da ayyukan Soviet ba tare da sanin ma'anarsu ba, sun ci gaba da atisayen.

Masana da yawa suna kallon wannan lokacin a matsayin lokacin yakin cacar baka tare da mafi girman hatsarin rikice-rikicen nukiliya tun lokacin rikicin makami mai linzami na Cuban 1962, lokacin da Amurka ta fuskanci Soviets game da sanya makaman nukiliya a tsibirin. Amma sabanin rikicin Cuban, Amurka ta yi bakin ciki game da hadarin. Robert Gates, a lokacin mataimakin darektan CIA, daga baya ya ce, "Wataƙila mun kasance a bakin yaƙin nukiliya kuma ba mu san shi ba."

An ɗauki shekaru kafin hukumomin yammacin duniya su fahimci haɗarin da duniya ta fuskanta a cikin Able Archer '83. Ba za su iya fahimtar cewa shugabannin Soviet a zahiri suna tsoron fara yajin aikin farko ba, kuma sun yi watsi da alamun da ke fitowa jim kadan bayan aikin a matsayin farfagandar Soviet. Amma yayin da hoton ya kara fitowa fili, Ronald Reagan ya fahimci cewa zafafan kalaman nasa a cikin shekaru uku na farko na mulkin shugaban kasar ya ciyar da Soviet tsoro, maimakon haka ya yi nasarar yin shawarwari tare da Soviets don rage makaman nukiliya.

A yau wa] annan yarjejeniyoyin an soke ko dai a kan tallafin rayuwa, yayin da rigingimun da ke tsakanin yammaci da kuma gwamnatin Tarayyar Soviet, Tarayyar Rasha, ke a wani mataki da ba a misaltuwa ko da a cikin yakin cacar baki. Hanyoyin sadarwa sun lalace kuma haɗarin nukiliya na karuwa. A halin da ake ciki kuma, ana samun takun saka da kasar Sin, wata kasa mai makaman nukiliya. Kwanaki bayan cika shekaru 77 na harin bam na nukiliya na Hiroshima na 6 ga Agusta, 1945 da kuma kona birnin Nagasaki a ranar 9 ga Agusta, duniya ta ba da hujjar dalilai na tambayar ko za mu isa 78th ba tare da sake amfani da makaman nukiliya ba.

A irin wannan lokacin, yana da mahimmanci a tuna da darussan Able Archer '83, game da abin da ke faruwa a lokacin da rikici tsakanin manyan iko ya taso yayin da sadarwa ta rushe. Abin farin cikin shi ne, a shekarun baya-bayan nan an buga littattafai da dama da suka yi zurfi a cikin rikicin, abin da ya haifar da shi, da kuma sakamakonsa. 1983: Reagan, Andropov, da Duniya a kan Brink, ta Taylor Downing, da Brink: Shugaba Reagan da Yaƙin Nukiliya na 1983 by Mark Ambinder, ba da labarin daga kusurwoyi daban-daban. Able Archer 83: Sirrin Atisayen NATO Wanda Ya Kusa Ya Hana Yakin Nukiliya Nate Jones shine mafi ƙanƙanta labari na tatsuniya tare da ainihin tushen kayan da aka ƙera daga ma'ajin sirri.

Riba yajin aikin farko

Viktor Surikov, wanda tsohon soja ne a rukunin gine-ginen makami mai linzami na Tarayyar Soviet, daga baya ya shaida wa wakilin ma'aikatar tsaron Amurka John Hines cewa, bisa la'akari da wannan ilimin, Soviets sun koma dabarar kai hari na riga-kafi. Idan sun yi tunanin Amurka na shirin kaddamarwa, da sun fara kaddamar da su. A zahiri, sun ƙirƙiri irin wannan preemption a cikin motsa jiki na Zapad 1983.

Ambinder ya rubuta, "Yayin da tseren makamai ke haɓaka, shirye-shiryen yakin Soviet sun samo asali. Ba su sake tsammanin mayar da martani ga harin farko daga Amurka A maimakon haka, duk shirye-shiryen manyan yaƙe-yaƙe sun ɗauka cewa Soviets za su sami hanyar da za su fara bugewa, saboda, a sauƙaƙe, gefen da ya fara kai hari zai sami mafi kyawun damar yin nasara. .”

Soviets sun yi imanin cewa Amurka tana da haka. "Surikov ya ce ya yi imani cewa masu tsara manufofin nukiliya na Amurka sun san cewa akwai bambance-bambance masu yawa a cikin matakan lalacewa ga Amurka a karkashin yanayin da Amurka ta yi nasarar kai hari da makamai masu linzami na Soviet kafin kaddamar da shi . . , " Jones ya rubuta. Hines ya yarda cewa "hakika Amurka ta yi irin wannan bincike" na harin farko da aka kai wa Tarayyar Soviet."

Haƙiƙa Amurka tana aiwatar da tsarin “ƙaddamar da faɗakarwa” don lokacin da aka tsinkayi harin ya kusa. Gudanar da dabarun nukiliya shine babban fargabar da shugabannin bangarorin biyu suka yi cewa za su kasance farkon harin makaman nukiliya.

" . . . yayin da yakin cacar baki ya ci gaba, manyan kasashen biyu sun fahimci kansu a matsayin masu rauni ga yajin aikin nukiliya," in ji Jones. Wani bangaren kuma zai yi yunkurin cin nasara a yakin nukiliya ta hanyar yanke shugaban kasa kafin ya ba da umarnin mayar da martani. "Idan Amurka za ta iya kawar da jagoranci a farkon yakin, za ta iya tsara sharuddan kawo karshen ta. . , "in ji Ambinder. Lokacin da shugabannin Rasha kafin yakin na yanzu suka shelanta zama membobin kungiyar NATO ta Ukraine a matsayin "jan layi" saboda makamai masu linzami da aka sanya a wurin na iya kaiwa Moscow cikin 'yan mintoci kaɗan, hakan ya kasance mai mayar da hankali ga waɗannan tsoro.

Ambinder yayi cikakken bayani game da yadda bangarorin biyu suka jure fargabar yanke jiki da kuma shirin samun damar ramawa. Amurka ta kara nuna damuwa cewa jiragen yakin Soviet na karkashin ruwa sun zama wadanda ba za a iya gano su ba kuma za su iya harba makami daga gabar tekun zuwa Washington, DC cikin kusan mintuna shida. Jimmy Carter, wanda ya san halin da ake ciki sosai, ya ba da umarnin sake dubawa tare da samar da wani tsari don tabbatar da wanda zai gaje shi zai iya ba da umarnin ramuwar gayya da kuma fada a kai ko da bayan an buge fadarsa ta White House.

Tsoron Soviet ya tsananta

"Sovietiyawa sun yi imanin cewa Pershing II na iya isa Moscow," in ji Ambinder, kodayake wannan ba lallai ba ne ya kasance haka lamarin. "Wannan yana nufin shugabancin Soviet na iya zama minti biyar daga yanke yanke hukunci a kowane lokaci da zarar an tura su. Brezhnev, da sauransu, ya fahimci wannan a cikin hanjinsa. "

A wani babban jawabi ga shugabannin kasashen Warsaw Pact a shekara ta 1983, Yuri Andropov, wanda ya gaji Brezhnev bayan mutuwarsa a shekara ta 1982, ya kira wadancan makamai masu linzami da "'sabon zagaye a tseren makamai' wanda ya bambanta da na baya," in ji Downing. "A bayyane yake a gare shi cewa wadannan makamai masu linzami ba game da 'tsarewa' ba ne, amma an tsara su don yaki a nan gaba, kuma an yi niyya don ba wa Amurka ikon ɗaukar jagorancin Soviet a cikin 'yakin nukiliya mai iyaka' wanda Amurka ta yi imani da shi. za su iya ' tsira kuma su yi nasara a cikin tsawaita rikicin nukiliya.'

Andropov, daga cikin manyan shugabannin Soviet, shi ne wanda ya yi imani da gaske cewa Amurka ta yi niyyar yaki. A cikin wani jawabi na sirri a watan Mayu 1981, lokacin da yake har yanzu yana shugaban KGB, ya soki Reagan kuma "ga mamakin yawancin wadanda ke wurin, ya yi iƙirarin cewa akwai yuwuwar kai hari na farko na nukiliya da Amurka ta yi," in ji Downing. Brezhnev yana daya daga cikin wadanda ke cikin dakin.

Wannan shi ne lokacin da KGB da takwararta na soja, GRU, suka aiwatar da wani babban fifikon ƙoƙarin leken asirin duniya don fitar da alamun farko da Amurka da yamma ke shirin yaƙi. Wanda aka fi sani da RYaN, ƙayyadaddun kalmomin Rasha don harin makami mai linzami na nukiliya, ya haɗa da ɗaruruwan alamomi, komai daga motsi a sansanonin soja, zuwa wuraren shugabancin ƙasa, abubuwan tafiyar da jini har ma da ko Amurka tana motsa kwafin asali na sanarwar 'yancin kai da kuma Tsarin Mulki. Ko da yake ’yan leƙen asirin sun kasance da shakku, ƙwarin gwiwar samar da rahotannin da shugabanci ke buƙata ya haifar da wata ƙima ta tabbatarwa, tare da ƙarfafa tsoron shugabanni.

Daga ƙarshe, saƙonnin RYaN da aka aika zuwa ofishin jakadancin KGB na London a lokacin Able Archer '83, wanda wakili biyu ya fallasa, zai tabbatar wa shugabannin yammacin duniya yadda suka tsoratar da Soviets a lokacin. Wannan bangare na labarin zai zo.

Reagan yana kunna zafi

Maganganun Reagan na nuni da juyowa daga détente da aka riga aka fara ƙarƙashin gwamnatin Carter tare da mamayewar Soviet na Afghanistan. A taron manema labarai na farko da ya yi, ya ce “détente’s titin hanya ɗaya ce da Tarayyar Soviet ta yi amfani da ita wajen cimma manufofinta . . . "Ya nuna rashin yiwuwar zaman tare," in ji Jones. Daga baya, da yake magana da Majalisar Dokokin Burtaniya a 1982, Reagan ya yi kira da a yi tattakin ‘yanci da dimokuradiyya wanda zai bar Marxism-Leninism a kan tulin tarihi . . . "

Babu wani jawabi da ya yi kamar da ya fi tasiri a tunanin Soviet, kamar wanda ya yi a watan Maris na 1983. Ƙungiya ta daskare makaman nukiliya tana tara miliyoyin mutane don a dakatar da sabbin makaman nukiliya. Reagan yana neman wuraren da zai magance hakan, kuma ɗayan ya ba da kansa a cikin nau'in taron ƙungiyar bishara ta ƙasa na shekara-shekara. Ma'aikatar harkokin wajen Amurka ba ta tantance jawabin ba, wanda a baya ta yi watsi da kalaman Reagan. Wannan shi ne cikakken karfe Ronald.

Da yake la'akari da daskarewar nukiliya, Reagan ya gaya wa kungiyar, ba za a iya la'akari da masu fafatawa a yakin Cold War daidai da ɗabi'a ba. Mutum ba zai iya yin watsi da “yunƙurin mugun daula . . . kuma ta haka ne ka kau da kai daga gwagwarmaya tsakanin nagarta da mugunta da mai kyau da sharri”. Ya tallata daga ainihin rubutun, yana kiran Tarayyar Soviet "mayar da hankali ga mugunta a duniyar zamani." Ambinder ya ba da rahoton cewa Nancy Reagan daga baya “ta koka da mijinta cewa ya wuce gona da iri. Reagan ya amsa: 'Muguwar daula ce. "Lokaci ya yi da za a rufe shi."

Manufofin Reagan da lafazin “sun tsoratar da masu hankali daga shugabancinmu,” in ji Jones Oleg Kalugin, shugaban KGB na Amurka har zuwa 1980.

Mixed sigina

Reagan ya yi imanin cewa zai iya samun raguwar makaman nukiliya ta hanyar gina su da farko, don haka ya dakatar da diflomasiyya da yawa a cikin shekaru biyu na farko na gwamnatinsa. A shekarar 1983, ya ji a shirye ya shiga. A cikin watan Janairu, ya ba da shawarar kawar da dukkanin makamai masu linzami, ko da yake Soviets sun yi watsi da shi da farko, la'akari da su ma sun yi barazanar makaman nukiliya na Faransa da Birtaniya. Sa'an nan a ranar 15 ga Fabrairu ya yi ganawar Fadar White House tare da Jakadan Tarayyar Soviet Anatoly Dobrynin.

"Shugaban ya ce yana da ban mamaki cewa Soviets sun ɗauka cewa shi 'mahaukaci ne mai zafi.' 'Amma ba na son yaki a tsakaninmu. Hakan zai kawo bala'o'i da yawa," in ji Ambinder. Dobrynin ya amsa da irin wannan ra'ayi, amma ya yi kira ga sojojin Reagan, mafi girma a tarihin Amurka a lokacin zaman lafiya, a matsayin "hakikanin barazana ga tsaron kasarmu." A cikin abubuwan da ya rubuta, Dobrynin ya furta ruɗar Soviet a lokacin da Reagan ya yi “harin da jama’a suka kai wa Tarayyar Soviet” yayin da “ya aika . . . alamun neman ƙarin alaƙar al'ada."

Wata sigina ta zo a sarari ga Soviets, aƙalla a cikin fassararsu. Makonni biyu bayan jawabin "mugunyar daular", Reagan ya ba da shawarar kariyar makami mai linzami "Star Wars". A ra'ayin Reagan, mataki ne da zai iya bude hanyar kawar da makaman nukiliya. Amma ga idanun Soviet, ya yi kama da wani mataki na farko zuwa yajin farko da kuma "nasara" yakin nukiliya.

Downing ya rubuta cewa "Ta hanyar nuna ba da shawarar Amurka za ta iya kaddamar da yajin aikin farko ba tare da fargabar daukar fansa ba, Reagan ya haifar da mummunan mafarkin Kremlin," in ji Downing. "Andropov ya tabbata cewa wannan sabon shiri ya kawo yakin nukiliya kusa. Kuma Amurka ce za ta fara.