By Ray McGovern, Antiwar.com, Afrilu 22, 2021
Babban kashedin shugaban kasar Rasha Vladimir Putin a yau a yau Kada a ketare abin da ya kira "jan layin" na Rasha yana bukatar a dauki da gaske. Haka kuma, yayin da kasar Rasha ke kara karfafa karfin soji don mayar da martani ga duk wani tsokana daga masu zafi a Ukraine da kuma wadanda ke birnin Washington suna gaya musu cewa za su iya ba wa Rasha hancin jini da kubuta daga daukar fansa.
Putin ya fara gabatar da kalaman nasa da ba a saba gani ba yana mai cewa Rasha na son “kyakkyawan dangantaka… gami da, ta hanyar, wadanda ba mu kulla alaka da su kwanan nan ba, mu sanya ta a hankali. A gaskiya ba ma son kona gadoji.” A wani yunƙuri na faɗakar da masu tayar da hankali ba kawai a Kiev ba, har ma a Washington da sauran manyan ƙasashen NATO, Putin ya ƙara da wannan gargaɗin:
"Amma idan wani ya yi kuskuren kyakkyawar niyyarmu don nuna halin ko-in-kula ko rauni kuma ya yi niyyar konewa ko kuma ya lalata wadannan gadoji, to ya kamata su san cewa martanin Rasha zai kasance mai asymmetrical, mai sauri da tsauri." Wadanda suke da tada hankali da ke barazana ga muhimman muradun tsaronmu za su yi nadamar abin da suka yi ta hanyar da ba su dade da nadamar komai ba.
Har ila yau, dole ne in bayyana a sarari, muna da isasshen haƙuri, nauyi, ƙwarewa, amincewa da kai da tabbaci a cikin al'amuranmu, da kuma hankali, yayin yanke shawara kowace iri. Amma ina fatan cewa babu wanda zai yi tunani game da ƙetare "layin ja" game da Rasha. Mu kanmu za mu tantance a kowane takamaiman yanayin inda za a zana shi.
Shin Rasha tana son Yaki?
Makon da ya wuce, a cikin jawabinsa na shekara-shekara Dangane da barazanar tsaron kasar Amurka, jami'an leken asirin sun nuna rashin amincewarsu da yadda Rasha ke ganin barazana ga tsaronta:
Mun kiyasta cewa Rasha ba ta son rikici kai tsaye da sojojin Amurka. Jami'an Rasha sun dade suna ganin cewa Amurka na gudanar da nata 'kamfen na tasiri' don lalata Rasha, da raunana Shugaba Vladimir Putin, da kuma kafa gwamnatocin abokantaka na yammacin Turai a cikin statin.tes na tsohuwar Tarayyar Soviet da sauran wurare. Rasha na neman matsuguni da Amurka kan rashin tsoma bakin juna a harkokin cikin gida na kasashen biyu da kuma amincewar da Amurka ta yi da matakin da Rasha ta dauka na yin tasiri a kan yawancin tsohuwar Tarayyar Soviet.
Ba a ga irin wannan gaskiyar ba tun lokacin da DIA (Hukumar Tsaro ta Tsaro) ta rubuta, a cikin "Dabarun Tsaro na Kasa na Disamba 2015":
Fadar Kremlin ta hakikance cewa Amurka na shimfida ginshikin sauya tsarin mulki a Rasha, hukuncin da ya kara karfafawa abubuwan da suka faru a Ukraine. Moscow dai na kallon Amurka a matsayin wanda ke da hannu a rikicin na Ukraine tare da ganin cewa hambare tsohon shugaban Ukraine Yanukovych shi ne mataki na baya-bayan nan a wani tsari da aka dade ana kitsawa a kokarin gwamnatin Amurka na kawo sauyi.
~ Disamba 2015 Dabarun Tsaron Kasa, DIA, Laftanar Janar Vincent Stewart, Darakta
Shin Amurka na son Yaki?
Zai zama mai ban sha'awa don karanta kimanta takwaransa na Rasha game da barazanar da suke fuskanta. Ga ra'ayina game da yadda manazarta leken asirin Rasha za su iya sanya shi:
Don tantance ko Amurka na son yaki yana da wahala musamman, muddin ba mu da cikakkiyar fahimta game da wanda ke kiran harbe-harbe a karkashin Biden. Ya kira Shugaba Putin a matsayin "mai kisan kai", ya sanya sabbin takunkumi, kuma a cikin numfashi guda ya gayyace shi zuwa wani taro. Mun san yadda sauƙaƙan shawarar da shugabannin Amurka suka amince da su za a iya juyar da su ta hanyar runduna masu ƙarfi waɗanda ke ƙarƙashin shugaban ƙasa. Ana iya ganin haɗari na musamman a cikin nadin Biden na Dick Cheney mai kare Victoria Nuland don zama lamba uku a Ma'aikatar Harkokin Wajen. An fallasa Mataimakin Sakatariyar Harkokin Wajen Nuland, a wata tattaunawa da aka yi sanya a YouTube a ranar 4 ga Fabrairu, 2014, suna shirya juyin mulki a Kiev tare da zabar sabon Firayim Minista makonni biyu da rabi kafin ainihin juyin mulkin (Fabrairu 22).
Mai yiyuwa ne a tabbatar da Nuland nan ba da jimawa ba, kuma masu zafi a Ukraine za su iya fassara hakan cikin sauki da cewa an ba su carte blanche don aike da karin dakaru, dauke da muggan makamai na Amurka, a kan dakarun da ke adawa da juyin mulkin Donetsk da Luhansk. Nuland da sauran shaho na iya ma maraba da irin martanin sojan Rasha da za su iya bayyana a matsayin "tashin hankali", kamar yadda suka yi bayan juyin mulkin Fabrairu 2014. Kamar yadda yake a da, za su yi hukunci da sakamakon - komai na jini - a matsayin hanyar haɗin gwiwa ga Washington. Mafi munin duka, suna da alama sun manta da yuwuwar haɓakawa.
Yana ɗaukar "Spark" ɗaya kawai
Da yake mai da hankali kan babban ginin sojojin Rasha a kusa da Ukraine, babban jami'in harkokin waje na EU Josep Borrell gargadi Litinin cewa kawai zai ɗauki "kyakkyawan tartsatsi" don tayar da husuma, da kuma cewa " tartsatsi na iya tsalle a nan ko can ". Akan haka yayi daidai.
Ya ɗauki tartsatsi guda ɗaya kawai daga bindigar da Gavrilo Princip ya yi amfani da shi don kashe Archduke Ferdinand na Ostiriya a ranar 28 ga Yuni, 1914, wanda ya kai ga Yaƙin Duniya na 1, kuma daga ƙarshe WW 2. Masu tsara manufofin Amurka da janar za su kasance da kyau su karanta Barbara Tuchman's “The Bindigogin Agusta”.
An koyar da tarihin karni na 19 a makarantun Ivy League wanda Nuland, Blinken, da mai ba da shawara kan tsaro Sullivan suka halarta - ba a ma maganar. nouveau riche, provocateur extraordinaire George Stephanopoulos? Idan haka ne, darussa na wannan tarihin da alama sun kasance sun lalace ta hanyar rugujewar hangen nesa na Amurka a matsayin duka mai karfi - hangen nesa da ya dade da wuce ranar karewar sa, musamman ganin yadda ake samun kusanci tsakanin Rasha da China.
A ra'ayina, akwai yuwuwar a kara yawan ta'asar Sinawa a tekun kudancin China da mashigin Taiwan idan Rasha ta yanke shawarar cewa dole ne ta shiga wani fadan soji a Turai.
Babban haɗari shine Biden, kamar Shugaba Lyndon Johnson a gabansa, na iya fama da nau'in rashin ƙarfi na vis-a-vis ƙwararrun "mafi kyau da haske" (wanda ya kawo mu Vietnam) cewa za a yaudare shi da tunanin sun san menene. su dong. Daga cikin manyan mashawartan Biden, Sakataren Tsaro Lloyd Austin ne kawai ya sami gogewar yaki. Kuma wannan rashin, ba shakka, ya kasance irin na yawancin Amirkawa. Akasin haka, miliyoyin 'yan Rasha har yanzu suna da wani dangi a cikin miliyan 26 da aka kashe a yakin duniya na biyu. Hakan ya ba da babban bambanci - musamman lokacin da ake mu'amala da abin da manyan jami'an Rasha suka kira tsarin mulkin neo-nazi da aka girka a Kiev shekaru bakwai da suka gabata.
Ray McGovern yana aiki tare da gaya wa Kalmar, wani bangaren buga littattafai na cocin Ecumenical na Mai Ceto a cikin garin Washington na ciki. Aikinsa na shekaru 27 a matsayin mai nazarin CIA ya hada da yin aiki a matsayin Babban Jami'in Ofishin Siyasar Kasashen Waje na Soviet da mai shiryawa / mai ba da rahoto game da Takaitaccen Bayanin Shugaban Kasa. Shi ne wanda ya kirkiro Vwararrun Professionwararrun encewararrun forwararru don Sanity (VIPS).
