Marc Pilisuk, Oktoba, 24, 2017
A lokacin zaman makoki ko tsoron firgitarwa barazanar rayuwa, ruhin ɗan adam yana da ikon ƙaryatãwa da watsi da haɗari masu zuwa. Shugaba Trump ya tayar da hankulan shiga yakin nukiliya da Koriya ta Arewa. Yana da mahimmanci wasu daga cikinmu suyi tsayayya da wannan halin. A cikin yakin nukiliya akwai fashewa, iskar wuta da tasirin radiation kuma babu masu amsawa na farko ko kayan more rayuwa don taimakawa waɗanda suka tsira. Wannan shine lokacin fuskantar rigakafin abin da ba za a iya tsammani ba.
Makaman nukiliya
Har zuwa tashin bam din atom, yaki ba shi da karfin kawo karshensa, na kowane lokaci, ci gaban mutane ko yin barazanar ci gaban rayuwa kanta. Bama-bamai na atomic da aka jefa a kan Hiroshima da Nagasaki sun haifar da mafi girman mutuwar nan take daga ɗayan makaman da har yanzu ba a sani ba. A tsakanin watanni biyu zuwa hudu na farko bayan tashin bama-baman, mummunan tasirin tashin bama-bamai ya kashe mutane 90,000–146,000 a Hiroshima da 39,000-80,000 a Nagasaki; kusan rabin mutuwar a kowane gari ya faru ne a ranar farko.
Barazanar mallakar makamin nukiliya ya karu. Shugaba Kennedy ya bayyana wannan gaskiyar:
A yau, duk mazaunan wannan duniyar dole su yi la'akari da ranar da wannan duniyar ba zata kasance rayuwa ba. Kowane mutum, mace, da yaro suna rayuwa ne a karkashin wani makami na nukiliya na Damocles, suna rataye ta hanyar zane, wanda za a iya yanke shi a kowane lokaci ta hanyar hadari ko rashin kuskure ko hauka.[i]
Tsohon Sakataren Tsaro William J. Perry ya ce, "Ban taɓa jin tsoron fashewar makaman nukiliya kamar yanzu ba - Akwai yiwuwar fiye da kashi hamsin cikin ɗari na yajin nukiliya a kan Amurka a cikin shekaru goma."[ii] Abubuwan haɗari na asali kamar wannan, cewa mun san akwai wanzu amma har yanzu suna watsi da su, ci gaba da samun tasiri akanmu. Suna motsa mu daga wani dangantaka mai tsawo ga duniyarmu, danna mana mu rayu a wannan lokacin kamar kowane lokaci zai zama karshe.[iii]
Hankalin jama’a a yanzu ya karkata kan yiwuwar kai harin makamin nukiliya da ‘yan ta’adda za su yi. Kamfanin RAND ya gudanar da bincike don nazarin tasirin harin ta'addanci da ya shafi fashewar nukiliya mai nauyin kilo 10 a Port of Long Beach, California.[iv] An yi amfani da saitin kayan aikin hangen nesa don bincika sakamakon nan da nan da na dogon lokaci. Ya kammala cewa babu yankin ko al'ummar da ke shirye don magance barazanar makaman nukiliya da aka kawo cikin Amurka akan jirgin kwantena. Long Beach shine tashar jirgin ruwa mafi girma ta uku a duniya, tare da kusan kashi 30% na duk shigo da Amurka da fitarwa da suke shigowa dasu. Rahoton ya yi nuni da cewa, makamin nukiliya da ya fashe a cikin akwatin jigilar kayayyaki zai sanya miliyoyin murabba'in mil dari na faduwar yankin ba za a iya zama ba. Misali daya, rahoton ya nunar da cewa matatun mai da yawa da ke kusa za a lalata su ta hanyar wadatar da isar mai da ke gabar tekun yamma a cikin 'yan kwanaki. Wannan zai bar jami'an birnin su magance matsalar karancin mai nan da nan da kuma yiwuwar yiwuwar tashin hankalin jama'a. Tasirin fashewar zai kasance tare da iskar wuta da kuma lalacewar rediyo na dogon lokaci, duk suna ba da gudummawa ga rushewar kayan aikin gida. Tasiri kan tattalin arzikin duniya na iya zama bala'i saboda dalilai biyu: na farko, mahimmancin tattalin arzikin sarkar jigilar kayayyaki ta duniya, wanda harin zai kawo masa cikas sosai, na biyu kuma, ingantaccen tsarin tattalin arzikin duniya.[v]
Ta hanyar ƙa'idodi na yanzu fashewar nukiliya mai nauyin kilo goma yana wakiltar ƙaramin samfurin ƙarfin manyan makaman nukiliya yanzu a cikin tarin kayan ƙaruwar ƙasashe. Yana da wahala koda tunanin abin da yajin aikin nukiliya zai kasance. Wani tsohon Sakataren Tsaro, Robert McNamara ya tuna abin da ya faru a lokacin rikicin makami mai linzami na Cuba lokacin da duniya ta kusanci musayar makaman nukiliya da Amurka da Soviet suka ƙaddamar da juna. A cikin gargadinsa na hankali shekaru da yawa daga baya McNamara ya kawo rahoto daga likitocin kasa da kasa na Rigakafin Yaƙin Nukiliya, yana bayanin tasirin makamin 1-megaton guda:
A siffar ƙasa, fashewa ya haifar da zurfin ƙafa na 300 kuma 1,200 ƙafafu a diamita. A cikin rabi na biyu, yanayin da kanta yayi ƙuƙwalwa a cikin wuta fiye da rabin mil a diamita. Fushin wuta yana nuna kusan haske sau uku da hasken rana da zafi na wani wuri mai haske a cikin rudun rana, yana kashewa a cikin sakanni duk rayuwar da ke ƙasa da radiating waje a gudun haske, haifar da mummunar mummunan ƙuna ga mutane a cikin guda zuwa uku mil . Ruwa mai hadari na iska mai zurfi ya kai nisan kilomita uku a game da 12 seconds, kamfanoni masu tayarwa da gine-gine kasuwanci. Debris ɗauke da iskõkin 250 mph na haifar da raunin da ya faru a cikin yankin. Akalla 50 bisa dari na mutanen da ke yankin sun mutu nan da nan, kafin duk wani rauni daga radiation ko wuta mai tasowa.
Idan harin da aka kai a kan Twin Towers ya shafi bam din nukiliya na 20-megaton, raƙuman ruwa zai yi ta cikin hanyar jirgin karkashin kasa duka. Yawan kilomita goma sha biyar daga kasa ba kome ba ne, wanda ya motsa ta hanyar maye gurbi, zai kara yawan wadanda suka mutu. Kusan 200,000 ƙananan wuta zasu haifar da samar da wuta tare da yanayin zafi har zuwa digiri na 1,500. Wani bam na nukiliya ya rushe masana'antun ruwa, abinci, da man fetur don sufuri, ayyukan kiwon lafiya, da kuma wutar lantarki. Rushewar raguwa tana lalacewa da lalata abubuwa masu rai don 240,000 shekaru.[vi]
Babu dalilin dalili cewa makaman nukiliya zai kunshi kawai irin makamin. Bugu da ƙari, zane-zane na sama da bam na nukiliya da ya fi yawa a cikin tashe-tashen hankula fiye da yawancin bama-bamai da ke samuwa yanzu a shirye-shirye. Wadannan makamai masu yawa suna iya yin abin da George Kennan yayi la'akari da irin girman irin wannan lalacewa game da rashin fahimtar fahimta.[vii] Irin wannan bama-bamai, da sauransu har yanzu sun lalacewa, suna dauke da makamai masu linzamin kwamfuta, masu yawa da dama suna iya samar da manyan bindigogi.
Bayan rugujewar Tarayyar Soviet, an rage tarin makaman nukiliya sama da abin da za a buƙata don lalata yawan mutanen duniya. Koyaya, makaman nukiliya 31,000 sun rage a duniya-yawancinsu Amurkawa ne ko Rasha, tare da ƙananan lambobin da ke Kingdomasar Ingila, Faransa da China, Indiya, Pakistan da Isra’ila. Rashin kawo karshen rikicin nukiliyar yakin Cold Cold tsakanin Rasha da Amurka ya bar ƙasashen biyu da sama da dabarun makaman nukiliya 2,000 a kan matsayi na faɗakarwa. Ana iya ƙaddamar da waɗannan a cikin 'yan mintoci kaɗan kuma babban aikin su shi ne lalata sojojin nukiliyar ɓangarorin da ke adawa da su, kayayyakin masana'antu, da kuma siyasa da jagorancin soja.[viii] Yanzu muna da ikon iya halakar da kowane lokaci, kowane mutum, kowane ciyawa, da kowane abu mai rai wanda ya samo asali a duniyar nan. Amma shin tunaninmu ya samo asali don taimakawa mu hana wannan daga faruwa?
Ya kamata mu ji muryoyinmu. Na farko, zamu iya kira shugabanninmu don samun tsutsa don kawar da barazanar makaman nukiliya, ko ta yin amfani da lalata ko kuma matsa lamba daga masu bada shawara na soja. Na biyu, idan muka tsira a lokacin daya daga cikin ayyukan da ya fi muhimmanci shi ne toshe makaman nukiliya na zamani. Nukes bazai buƙatar gwada su ba don ƙayyadadden sakamako don su zama abin ƙyama. Ci gaban haɓakar ƙaddarar hanya ta haifar da tsere ta nukiliya.
Tsarin lokaci, bisa ga CBO zai biya $ 400 biliyan nan da nan kuma daga $ 1.25 zuwa dala biliyan 1.58 akan shekaru talatin. Nasarar makaman nukiliya da aka tsara don amfani da filin yaki za su kalubalanci sauran kasashe don su samo su kuma su gayyaci hanyar yin amfani da makaman nukiliya da za a keta. Yanzu ne lokacin da za mu dage wa majalisarmu cewa za a rage yawan makaman nukiliya daga kasafin kasa. Wannan zai sayi dan lokaci don warkar da duniyar duniyar da al'umma a ƙarƙashin damuwa.
References
[i] Kennedy, JF (1961, Satumba). Adireshin taron Majalisar Dinkin Duniya. Cibiyar Miller, Jami'ar Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia. An dawo daga http://millercenter.org/president/speeches/detail/5741
[ii] McNamara, RS (2005). Apocalypse Ba da da ewa ba. Ma'aikatar Jaridar Kasashen waje. An dawo daga http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/cms.php?story_id=2829
[iii] Macy, JR (1983). Lalaci da ikon sirri a cikin makaman nukiliya. Philadelphia, PA: New Society.
[iv] Meade, C. & Molander, R. (2005). Tattaunawa game da tasirin tattalin arziki na ta'addanci a kan tashar jiragen ruwa na Long Beach. RAND Corporation. W11.2 An dawo daga http://birenheide.com/sra/2005AM/program/singlesession.php3?sessid=W11
http://www.ci.olympia.wa.us/council/Corresp/NPTreportTJJohnsonMay2005.pdf
[v] Ibid.
[vi] Kwamitin Masana kimiyya don Bayanin Radiation (1962). Hanyoyin Bom na Twenty Megaton. Jami'ar New University: Spring, 24-32.
[vii] Kennan, GF (1983). Rarraban nukiliya: Harkokin Soviet Amurka a zamanin nukiliya. New York: Pantheon.
[viii] Starr, S. (2008). Makaman nukiliya masu ƙwaƙwalwa: Batir da aka manta. SGR (Masana kimiyya don Hannun Duniya) Newsletter, No.36, An dawo da su daga http://www.sgr.org.uk/publications/sgr-newsletter-no-36
* Ƙarin da aka samo daga Tsarin Harkokin Rikici: Abinda Ya Amfana Daga Rikicin Duniya da Yaƙin by Marc Pilisuk da Jennifer Achord Rountree. New York, NY: Bincike na Watanni, 2015.
Marc Pilisuk, Ph.D.
Farfesa Emeritus, Jami'ar California
Faculty, Jami'ar Saybrook
Ph 510-526-1788
Godiya ga Kelisa Ball don taimakawa tare da gyara da bincike
http://marcpilisuk.com/bio.html
