Bulletin Berlin Lamba 134, Satumba 25 2017
By Victor Grossman
Babban sakamakon zaben na Jamus ba shine cewa Angela Merkel da jam'iyyarta biyu, Christian Democratic Union (CDU) da Bavarian CSU (Christian Social Union), sun yi nasarar ci gaba da kasancewa a kan gaba da kuri'u mafi yawa, amma sun yi kaca-kaca da su. babbar asara tun kafuwar su.
Wani mahimmin sakamako na biyu shi ne cewa jam'iyyar Social Democrats (SPD) ta samu waraka, kuma ta samu sakamako mafi muni tun bayan yakin. Kuma tun da waɗannan ukun sun yi aure a cikin gwamnatin haɗin gwiwa shekaru huɗu da suka gabata, ɓarke su ya nuna cewa yawancin masu jefa ƙuri'a ba su da farin ciki, gamsuwa da 'yan ƙasa waɗanda sau da yawa ba ku taɓa gani ba - Merkel, amma suna damuwa. , damuwa da fushi. Don haka sun fusata har suka ki amincewa da manyan jam’iyyun Establishment, wadanda ke wakiltar da kuma kare matsayinsu.
Babban labari na uku, wanda ke da firgitarwa, shi ne kashi takwas na masu jefa ƙuri'a, kusan kashi 13 cikin ɗari, sun nuna fushinsu a cikin wani yanayi mai hatsarin gaske - ga jam'iyyar matasa ta Alternative for Germany (AfD), wacce shugabanninta ke rarrabuwar kawuna tsakanin dama. ’yan wariyar launin fata da ’yan wariyar launin fata masu tsattsauran ra’ayi. Tare da kusan wakilai 80 masu ƙarfi a cikin sabon Bundestag - nasarar farko da suka samu a cikin ƙasa - dole ne kafofin watsa labarai su ba su sarari fiye da da don tona asirinsu mai guba (kuma yawancin kafofin watsa labarai sun fi karimci tare da su har yanzu).
Wannan hatsarin ya fi muni a yankin Saxony, jiha mafi karfi a Gabashin Jamus, wadda jam'iyyar CDU mai ra'ayin mazan jiya ta yi mulki. AfD ta shiga matsayi na farko da kashi 27 cikin 16.1, inda ta doke CDU da kashi goma cikin dari, nasarar farko da suka samu a kowace jiha (Jam'iyyar Hagu ta samu 10.5, SPD XNUMX% a Saxony). Hoton ya yi kama da yawa a cikin mafi yawan kasa-kasa, wariyar launin fata a Jamus ta Gabas da kuma a wani yanki na Social Democratic, yankin Rhineland-Ruhr na yammacin Jamus, inda yawancin ma'aikata da ma marasa aikin yi ke neman abokan gaba. halin da ake ciki - kuma ya zaɓi AfD. Maza a ko'ina sun fi mata.
Yana da wuya a yi watsi da littattafan tarihi. A cikin 1928 Nazis ya sami kashi 2.6 kawai, a cikin 1930 wannan ya karu zuwa 18.3 %. A shekara ta 1932 - zuwa babban mataki saboda damuwa - sun zama jam'iyya mafi karfi tare da fiye da 30%. Duniya ta san abin da ya faru a shekarar da ta biyo baya. Abubuwan da ke faruwa na iya tafiya da sauri.
Nazis sun gina kan rashin gamsuwa, fushi da kyamar Yahudawa, suna jagorantar fushin mutane a kan Yahudawa maimakon ainihin masu laifi Krupps ko Deutsche Bank miliyoyi. Hakazalika, AfD a yanzu yana jagorantar fushin mutane, a wannan karon ba kasafai ake yi kan Yahudawa ba amma a kan Musulmai, “Islami”, baƙi. An daidaita su a kan waɗannan "sauran mutane" waɗanda ake zargin an lalata su da kuɗin "Jamusanci masu kyau" masu aiki, kuma suna zargin Angela Merkel da abokan haɗin gwiwarta, Social Democrats - ko da yake duka biyu sun yi gaggawar ja da baya kan wannan tambaya kuma matsawa zuwa ga ƙarin ƙuntatawa da fitarwa. Amma ba za ta taɓa isa ga AfD cikin sauri ba, waɗanda ke amfani da dabaru iri ɗaya kamar na shekarun da suka gabata, har ya zuwa yanzu tare da samun nasara iri ɗaya. Sama da masu jefa ƙuri'a miliyan ɗaya na CDU da kusan rabin miliyan SPD masu jefa ƙuri'a sun canza mubaya'a a ranar Lahadi ta hanyar jefa ƙuri'a ga AfD.
Akwai kamanceceniya da yawa a wasu wurare a Turai, amma kuma a kusan kowace nahiya. Zaɓaɓɓun masu laifi A cikin Amurka ’yan Afirka ne na al’ada, amma sai Latinos kuma a yanzu – kamar a Turai – Musulmi, “Masu Islama”, baƙi. Ƙoƙarin magance irin waɗannan dabarun tare da yaƙin neman zaɓe na faɗakarwa da ƙiyayya ga Rashawa, Koriya ta Arewa ko Iraniyawa kawai ya sa lamarin ya fi muni - kuma mafi haɗari, lokacin da ƙasashen da ke da ƙarfin soja da makaman nukiliya suka damu. Amma kamanni suna da ban tsoro! Kuma a Turai Jamus, a cikin komai sai makaman nukiliya, ita ce ƙasa mafi ƙarfi.
Shin babu wani, mafi kyawun madadin fiye da AfD ga masu adawa da "zama hanya"? 'Yan jam'iyyar Free Democrats, wani gungu mai ladabi tare da alaƙa kusan keɓance ga manyan 'yan kasuwa, sun sami nasarar dawowa mai ƙarfi daga durkushewar da ake yi, tare da gamsuwa da kashi 10.7 cikin ɗari, amma ba saboda takensu marasa ma'ana da wayo, shugaban marasa tsari ba, amma saboda suna bai kasance jam'iyyar kafa gwamnati ba.
Babu Greens da DIE LINKE (Hagu). Ba kamar manyan jam'iyyun biyu ba, dukkansu sun inganta kuri'unsu fiye da na 2013 - amma da 0.5 % na Greens da 0.6 % na Hagu, fiye da asara, amma duka biyun sun ci tura. The Greens, tare da haɓaka haɓakarsu, tunani da ƙwararru, ba su ba da babban hutu tare da Kafa ba.
Hagu, duk da munanan magani na kafofin watsa labaru, yakamata ya sami babban fa'ida. Ya yi adawa da kawancen kasa da ba a yarda da shi ba kuma ya dauki tsayin daka kan batutuwa da yawa: janyewar sojojin Jamus daga rikice-rikice, babu makami zuwa wuraren rikici (ko a ko'ina), mafi ƙarancin albashi, farkon da fansho na ɗan adam, haraji na gaske na miliyoniya da biliyoyin da suka ɓata. Jamusawa da duniya.
Ya yi yaƙi da wasu kyawawan yaƙe-yaƙe, kuma, yin haka, ya tura wasu ɓangarori zuwa wasu gyare-gyare, saboda tsoron ribar Hagu. Amma kuma ta shiga cikin gwamnatocin haɗin gwiwa a jihohin Jamus ta Gabas guda biyu da Berlin (har ma ta jagoranci ɗaya daga cikinsu, a Thuringia). Ya yi ƙoƙari sosai idan banza ya shiga cikin wasu biyu. A duk irin waɗannan yanayi ta daidaita bukatunta, ta guje wa girgiza jirgin, aƙalla da yawa, domin hakan na iya hana bege ga mutuntawa da kuma tashi daga kusurwar “marasa biyayya” da aka saba sanya masa. Ba kasafai ake samun wata hanya ba daga fadace-fadacen baki da shiga titi, da kakkausar murya da kakkausar murya na goyon bayan masu yajin aiki da kuma mutanen da aka yi barazanar korarsu daga korar masu hannu da shuni, ko kuma korar masu hannu da shuni, a wata ma’ana suna shiga wani kalubale na gaske ga duk halin da ake ciki na rashin lafiya, har ma da karya. yana mulki akai-akai, ba tare da taken juyin juya hali na daji ba ko tarwatsewar tagogi da juji da aka kona amma tare da haɓakar juriya mai shahara yayin ba da ra'ayoyi masu inganci na gaba, kusa da nesa. Inda aka rasa hakan, musamman a gabashin Jamus, mutane masu fushi ko damuwa suna kallonsa, a matsayin wani ɓangare na Ƙaddamarwa da kare matsayin. Wani lokaci, a kan ƙananan hukumomi, har ma da matakan jihohi, wannan safar hannu ya dace sosai. Kusan gabaɗayan rashin ƴan takara masu aiki ya taka rawa. Irin wannan shirin na aiki zai zama kawai amsa ta gaskiya ga masu tsoratar da wariyar launin fata da ’yan fashi. Abin lura shi ne, ya yi adawa da ƙiyayya ga baƙi duk da cewa wannan ya sa mutane da yawa suka yi zanga-zanga sau ɗaya; 400,000 sun canza daga Hagu zuwa AfD.
Ta'aziyya ɗaya; a birnin Berlin, inda yake na gwamnatin hadin gwiwa, jam'iyyar Hagu ta yi kyau sosai, musamman a gabashin Berlin, inda ta sake zabar 'yan takara hudu kai tsaye tare da kusantar juna fiye da kowane lokaci a wasu gundumomi biyu, yayin da kungiyoyin 'yan gwagwarmayar Hagu a yammacin Berlin suka samu fiye da na tsofaffi. Gabashin Berlin kagara.
A matakin ƙasa na iya fuskantar gagarumin ci gaba. Tun lokacin da SPD ta ki sabunta kawancen da ba ta yi dadi ba da jam'iyyar Merkel biyu, za a tilasta mata samun rinjayen kujeru a majalisar dokoki ta Bundestag, ta shiga tare da manyan 'yan kasuwa na FDP da kuma masu tsage, wanda ke ruguza jam'iyyar Greens. Dukansu biyun ba sa son junansu da zuciya ɗaya, yayin da da yawa daga cikin tushen ciyawa ke adawa da yarjejeniyar da Merkel ko kuma FDP mai dama. Shin waɗannan ukun za su iya haɗawa tare da kafa wani abin da ake kira "Ƙungiyar Jama'a" - dangane da launukan tutar ƙasar, baƙar fata (CDU-CSU), yellow (FDP) da Green? Idan ba haka ba, menene? Tun da babu wanda zai shiga tare da AfD na dama - ba tukuna, ta wata hanya - babu mafita da ke bayyane, ko watakila mai yiwuwa.
Babbar tambaya, sama da duka, ta fito fili; shin zai yiwu a mayar da barazanar jam'iyyar da ke cike da kararrakin wani abin ban tsoro da ya wuce kuma cike da masu sha'awarta, wadanda suke son sake haifar da ita a fili, kuma a shirye suke su yi amfani da kowace hanya don cimma burinsu na mafarki. Kuma shin, a matsayin wani ɓangare na shan kashi na wannan barazanar, za a iya tunkuɗe irin waɗannan haɗarin da ke kunno kai ga zaman lafiyar duniya?
