DAGA: Ma'aikatan Intelligence Tsoro don Sanin (VIPS)
SUBJECT: Ukraine da NATO
Mu masu ba da gaskiya ne masu tsokaci na dakarun Amurka. Mun dauki mataki na musamman na rubuta wannan wasiƙar ta bude zuwa gare ku don tabbatar da cewa kuna da damar da za a yi bayani akan ra'ayoyinmu kafin taron NATO a ranar Satumba 4-5.
Ya kamata ku sani, alal misali, zargin da ake yi na babban mamayewar Rasha game da Ukraine ya bayyana ba za a goyi bayan sahihan bayanan sirri ba. Maimakon haka, “leken asirin” yana da alama iri daya ce, irin ta siyasa "wacce aka yi amfani da ita" shekaru 12 da suka gabata don "ba da hujjar" harin da Amurka ta jagoranta kan Iraki. Ba mu ga wata tabbatacciyar shaidar makaman kare dangi a Iraki ba; ba mu ga wata hujja tabbatacciya ba game da mamayewar Rasha a yanzu. Shekaru goma sha biyu da suka wuce, tsohon shugaban gwamnati Gerhard Schroeder, yana mai tuna rashin kyawun hujjoji akan WMD na Iraqi, ya ƙi shiga cikin harin Iraki. A ra'ayinmu, yakamata ku kasance masu shakku game da zargin da Ma'aikatar Harkokin Wajen Amurka da jami'an NATO suka yi game da mamaye Rasha da Ukraine ta yi.
Shugaba Barack Obama ya yi kokarin jiya don kwantar da maganganun manyan jami'an diflomasiyya da na kafofin yada labarai, lokacin da ya fito fili ya bayyana ayyukan da ake yi a cikin Ukraine, a matsayin "ci gaba da abin da ke faruwa na watanni yanzu not ba da gaske ba ne."
Obama, duk da haka, yana da iko ne kawai a kan masu tsara manufofi a cikin gwamnatinsa - wanda, abin takaici, rashin sanin tarihin sosai, ba su san yaki sosai ba, kuma yana maye gurbin masu adawa da Rasha don siyasa. Shekarar da ta wuce, jami'an Ma'aikatar Harkokin Wajen Amurka da abokansu a kafofin yada labarai sun kusan sa Mista Obama ya fara kai wa Siriya wani babban hari, a sake, kan “hankali” wanda yake shakku, mafi kyau.
Yawanci saboda ci gaba da girma, da kuma amincewa da hankali, da hankali mun yi imanin cewa muna da damuwa, muna tunanin yiwuwar tashin hankalin da ke tasowa a kan iyakokin Ukraine ya karu sosai a cikin kwanakin da suka gabata. Mafi mahimmanci, mun yi imanin cewa za a iya kaucewa wannan hanya, dangane da irin rashin amincewar da ku da sauran shugabannin Turai suka kai ga taron NATO a mako mai zuwa.
Kwarewa da Gaskiya
Da fatan, masu ba ku shawara sun tunatar da ku game da rikodin rikodin rikodin sakatare-janar na NATO Anders Fogh Rasmussen don tabbatar da gaskiya. Ya bayyana a gare mu cewa Washington na ci gaba da tsara jawaban Rasmussen. Wannan ya bayyana karara ranar da Amurka ta mamaye Iraki lokacin, a matsayin Firayim Ministan Denmark, ya gaya wa Majalisar Dokokinsa cewa: “Iraki tana da makaman kare dangi. Wannan ba abinda muka yarda dashi bane kawai. Mun sani. ”
Hotuna za su iya darajar dubban kalmomi; suna iya yaudara. Muna da kwarewar kwarewa ta tattara, nazarin, da kuma bayar da rahoto game da kowane irin tauraron dan adam da sauran hotunan, da sauran nau'o'in hankali. Ya yiwu ya ce hotunan da NATO ta fitar a ranar 28 na XXXX na samar da wata matsala da za ta dauka kan Rasha ta hanyar shiga Ukraine. Abin baƙin ciki, suna da kamannin kama da hotuna da Colin Powell ya nuna a Majalisar Dinkin Duniya a ranar 5 na 2003, XNUMX cewa, kamar haka, bai tabbatar da kome ba.
A waccan ranar, mun gargadi Shugaba Bush cewa tsoffin abokan aikinmu “sun damu matuka da sanya siyasa a harkar leken asiri” kuma muka gaya masa kai tsaye, “Gabatarwar Powell ba ta zo kusa ba” don ba da hujjar yaki. Mun bukaci Mista Bush da ya “fadada tattaunawar… fiye da zagayen wadanda masu ba da shawara a fili suka dukufa kan yakin da ba mu ga wani dalili mai karfi ba kuma daga abin da muke ganin sakamakon da ba a tsammani zai iya zama bala’i.”
Yi la'akari da Iraki a yau. Mafi munin bala'i. Kodayake har yanzu Shugaba Vladimir Putin ya nuna halin ko in kula game da rikicin na Ukraine, ya kamata mu tuna cewa Rasha ma za ta iya “firgita da tsoro.” A ganinmu, idan akwai wata dama kaɗan na irin wannan abu da zai faru da Turai a ƙarshe saboda Ukraine, shugabanni masu hankali suna buƙatar yin wannan a hankali sosai.
Idan hotunan da NATO da Amurka suka saki suna wakiltar ingantacciyar “hujja” ta mamayewa daga Rasha, shakkunmu yana ƙaruwa cewa ana kan gudanar da babban ƙoƙari don ƙarfafa muhawara ga taron NATO don amincewa da ayyukan da Rasha ta tabbatar da cewa tsokana. Caveat fashewa ne bayyanar da abin da kake da shakka babu masani. Ya kamata ya kara cewa wanda ya kamata ya kasance mai hankali game da abin da Mr. Rasmussen, ko ma Sakataren Gwamnati John Kerry, ke yi.
Mun amince da cewa mashawartanku sun sanar da ku game da rikicin Ukraine tun daga farkon 2014, da kuma yadda yiwuwar Ukraine ta zama memba na NATO haramun ne ga Kremlin. Dangane da keɓaɓɓen waya na 1 ga Fabrairu, 2008 (wanda WikiLeaks ya buga) daga ofishin jakadancin Amurka a Moscow zuwa Sakatariyar Harkokin Wajen Condoleeza Rice, Ministan Harkokin Wajen Sergey Lavrov ne ya kira jakadan Amurka William Burns, wanda ya bayyana babbar adawa ga Rasha ga membobin NATO na Ukraine.
Lavrov ya yi gargadi kai tsaye game da "fargabar cewa batun na iya raba kasar gida biyu, wanda ke haifar da tashin hankali ko ma, wasu na ikirarin, yakin basasa, wanda zai tilasta wa Rasha yanke shawarar ko ta shiga tsakani." Burns ya ba wa wayarsa taken da ba a saba gani ba, "NYET MEANS NYET: RASHA RANAR KYAUTA NA RUSSIA," kuma ya aika shi zuwa Washington tare da fifikon GAGGAWA. Watanni biyu bayan haka, a taron da suka yi a Bucharest shugabannin NATO sun ba da sanarwa a hukumance cewa "Georgia da Ukraine za su kasance a cikin NATO."
Jiya kawai, Firayim Ministan Ukraine Arseny Yatsenyuk ya yi amfani da shafinsa na Facebook don yin ikirarin cewa, tare da amincewar Majalisar da ya nema, hanyar samun mambobin NATO a bude take. Yatsenyuk, ba shakka, shine wanda aka fi so Washington ta zama firayim minista bayan juyin mulkin 22 ga Fabrairu a Kiev. "Yats shine mutumin," in ji Mataimakiyar Sakatariyar Harkokin Wajen Victoria Nuland 'yan makonni kafin juyin mulkin, a wata tattaunawar wayar tarho da Ambasadan Amurka a Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt. Kuna iya tuna cewa wannan ita ce tattaunawar da Nuland ta ce, "f * ck EU."
Lokaci na "mamayewa" na Rasha
Babban hikimar da Kiev ya gabatar makonni kaɗan da suka gabata ita ce, sojojin Ukraine suna da rinjaye a yaƙi da masu adawa da juyin mulki a kudu maso gabashin Ukraine, a cikin abin da galibi aka nuna a matsayin aikin ƙira. Amma wannan hoton na ta'addancin ya samo asali ne kawai daga kafofin gwamnati na Kiev. Akwai 'yan rahotanni kaɗan da ke zuwa daga ƙasa a kudu maso gabashin Ukraine. Akwai ɗaya, duk da haka, yana faɗar da Shugaban Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, wanda ya haifar da shakku game da amincin hoton gwamnati.
A cewar "sabis na manema labarai na Shugaban Ukraine" a ranar 18 ga watan Agusta, Poroshenko ya yi kira da "a sake tattara bangarorin sojojin Yukren da ke cikin aikin iko a Gabashin kasar. Oro A yau muna bukatar sake yin kwaskwarima na sojojin da za su kare yankinmu da kuma ci gaba da kai hare-haren sojoji, "in ji Poroshenko, yana mai cewa," ya kamata mu yi la’akari da wani sabon aikin soja a cikin sabon yanayin. ”
Idan “sabon yanayin” yana nufin ci gaban nasara daga sojojin gwamnatin Ukraine, me yasa zai zama dole a “sake,” don “sake tsarawa” sojojin? A kusan wannan lokacin, majiyoyi a ƙasa sun fara ba da rahoton jerin hare-hare na nasara da masu adawa da juyin mulkin suka yiwa sojojin gwamnati. A cewar wadannan kafofin, sojojin gwamnati ne suka fara yin asara mai yawa tare da yin asara, galibi saboda rashin tunani da rashin kyakkyawan jagoranci.
Bayan kwana goma, yayin da aka kewaye su da / ko suka ja da baya, an sami uzurin da aka shirya don wannan a cikin "mamayewar Rasha." Hakan ya kasance daidai lokacin da NATO ta saki hotunan masu ban tsoro da kuma masu rahoto kamar jaridar New York Times 'Michael Gordon da aka sako sako don yada labarin cewa "Russia na zuwa." (Michael Gordon ya kasance ɗayan fitattun masu yada farfaganda da ke yaƙin Iraki.)
Babu Yakin mamaye - Amma yalwa Sauran Tallafukan Rasha
Masu adawa da juyin mulkin tarayya a kudu maso gabashin Ukraine suna jin daɗin goyon baya na cikin gida, wani ɓangare sakamakon luguden wuta da manyan bindigogin gwamnati ke kaiwa kan manyan cibiyoyin jama'a. Kuma mun yi imanin cewa mai yiwuwa goyon bayan Rasha yana ta ratsa iyakar kuma ya haɗa da, mahimmanci, ƙwarewar fagen fama. Amma ba a bayyane yake ba cewa wannan tallafin ya hada da tankokin yaki da bindigogi a wannan lokacin - galibi saboda 'yan tarayyar sun sami kyakkyawan jagoranci kuma abin mamaki sun yi nasara wajen murkushe sojojin gwamnati.
Bugu da} ari, muna da shakka cewa, idan kuma lokacin da 'yan adawa ke buƙatar su, za su zo da tankunan Rasha.
Wannan shine ainihin dalilin da yasa halin da ake ciki ya bukaci hada karfi don tsagaita wuta, wanda kuka san cewa Kiev ya jinkirta har yanzu. Me za a yi a wannan lokacin? A ganinmu, Poroshenko da Yatsenyuk suna bukatar a fada musu kai tsaye cewa membobinsu a cikin NATO ba su cikin katunan - kuma NATO ba ta da niyyar yin yaki da wakili tare da Rasha - kuma musamman ba don goyon bayan rundunonin sojojin masu zanga-zangar ba Yukren. Sauran membobin NATO suna bukatar a gaya musu irin wannan.
Ga Ƙungiyar Gudanarwar, Masu Mahimman Kwarewar Kwarewa ga Sanin
William Binney, tsohon Daraktan Fasaha, Tattalin Arzikin Duniya da Soja, NSA; co-kafa, SIGINT Automation Research Center (ret.)
Larry Johnson, CIA & Ma'aikatar Jiha (ret.)
David MacMichael, Majalisar Intelligence Council (ret.)
Ray McGovern, tsohon sojan Amurka / jami'in leken asiri & mai nazarin CIA (ret.)
Elizabeth Murray, Mataimakin Babban Jami'in Harkokin Kasuwancin Gabas ta Tsakiya (ret.)
Todd E. Pierce, MAJ, Babban Jami'in Harkokin Sojan {asar Amirka (Sake.)
Coleen Rowley, Lauya mai ba da shawara & Wakili na Musamman, FBI (ret.)
Ann Wright, Col., US Army (ret.); Jami'in Harkokin Ƙasashen waje (ya yi murabus)
