Daga Ariel Gold da Medea Benjamin, Jacobin, Disamba 10, 2021
Bayan tsaikon watanni 5, tattaunawar kai tsaye tsakanin Amurka da Iran ta sake komawa a makon da ya gabata a Vienna a kokarin sake duba yarjejeniyar nukiliyar Iran ta 2015 (wanda aka fi sani da Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ko JCPOA). Ra'ayin ba shi da kyau.
Kasa da mako guda a cikin tattaunawar, Burtaniya, Faransa, da Jamus zargi Iran na "kowa da kusan dukkanin matsananciyar sulhu" da aka cimma a zagayen farko na shawarwarin da aka yi gabanin rantsar da sabon shugaban Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, kan karagar mulki. Duk da yake irin wadannan ayyuka na Iran ba shakka ba sa taimakawa tattaunawar ta yi nasara, akwai wata kasa - wacce ba ta ma cikin yarjejeniyar da aka ruguje a shekarar 2018 a lokacin Shugaba Donald Trump - wacce matsayi mai tsauri ke haifar da cikas ga yin shawarwarin nasara. : Isra'ila.
A ranar Lahadin da ta gabata, yayin da ake samun rahotannin cewa tattaunawar na iya rugujewa, Firaministan Isra'ila Naftali Bennett ya yi kira ga kasashen da ke Vienna "dauka mai karfi" a kan Iran. A cewar tashar Channel 12 a Isra'ila, jami'an Isra'ila sun kasance kira ga Amurka daukar matakin soji kan Iran, ko dai ta hanyar kai wa Iran hari kai tsaye ko kuma ta kai hari kan wani sansanin Iran a Yemen. Ko da kuwa sakamakon shawarwarin, Isra'ila ta ce tana da 'yancin dauka soja mataki kan Iran.
Barazanar Isra'ila ba ta da ƙarfi ba ce kawai. Tsakanin 2010 da 2012, masana kimiyyar nukiliya na Iran hudu sun kasance kisa, mai yiwuwa Isra’ila ta yi. A cikin Yuli 2020, gobara, dangana wani bam na Isra'ila, ya yi mummunar barna a tashar nukiliyar Natanz ta Iran. A watan Nuwamba 2020, jim kadan bayan Joe Biden ya lashe zaben shugaban kasa, jami'an Isra'ila sun yi amfani da bindigu na sarrafa nesa. kashe Babban masanin kimiyyar nukiliyar Iran. Da a ce Iran ta mayar da martani daidai gwargwado, da Amurka ta goyi bayan Isra’ila, inda rikicin ya koma yakin Amurka da Gabas ta Tsakiya.
A cikin Afrilu 2021, yayin da ake ci gaba da ƙoƙarin diflomasiyya tsakanin gwamnatin Biden da Iran, zagon ƙasa da aka danganta ga Isra'ila ya haifar da baƙaƙe a Natanz. Iran ta bayyana matakin a matsayin "ta'addancin nukiliya."
Abin ban mamaki aka bayyana Kamar yadda shirin Iran na Gina Baya mafi Kyau, bayan kowane ɗayan ayyukan makaman nukiliya na Isra'ila, Iraniyawa sun sami kayan aikinsu cikin sauri. dawo kan layi har ma da shigar da sabbin injuna don haɓaka uranium cikin sauri. Sakamakon haka, jami'an Amurka kwanan nan gargadi takwarorinsu na Isra'ila cewa hare-haren da ake kaiwa cibiyoyin nukiliyar Iran ba su da wani tasiri. Amma Isra'ila ya ce cewa ba shi da niyyar bari.
Yayin da agogo ya kure don sake rufe JCPOA, Isra'ila tura manyan jami'anta fita don yin lamarinsa. Ministan harkokin wajen Isra'ila Yair Lapid ya ziyarci London da Paris a makon da ya gabata yana rokonsu da kada su goyi bayan aniyar Amurka na komawa kan yarjejeniyar. A wannan makon, Ministan Tsaro Benny Gantz da Shugaban Mossad na Isra'ila David Barnea suna birnin Washington don ganawa da sakataren tsaron Amurka Lloyd Austin, sakataren harkokin wajen Amurka Antony Blinken, da jami'an CIA. A cewar jaridar Yedioth Ahronoth ta Isra'ila, Barnea kawo "sabunta bayanan sirri kan kokarin Tehran" na zama kasar nukiliya.
Tare da roko na baki, Isra'ila tana shirye-shiryen soja. Suna da aka ware dala biliyan 1.5 domin kai hari kan Iran. A cikin Oktoba da Nuwamba, an gudanar da su manyan atisayen soji a shirye-shiryen kai hare-hare kan Iran kuma a wannan bazarar sun shirya gudanar da daya daga cikin nasu mafi girma yajin kwaikwayo drills har abada, ta yin amfani da jiragen sama da dama, ciki har da jirgin F-35 na Lockheed Martin.
Amurka kuma tana shirye don yiwuwar tashin hankali. Mako guda gabanin ci gaba da tattaunawar a Vienna, babban kwamandan Amurka a Gabas ta Tsakiya, Janar Kenneth McKenzie, sanar cewa dakarunsa sun kasance a shirye don yuwuwar ayyukan soja idan tattaunawar ta ruguje. Jiya, ya kasance ruwaito cewa ganawar da ministan tsaron Isra'ila Benny Gantz zai yi da Lloyd Austin zai hada da tattaunawa kan yuwuwar atisayen soji na hadin gwiwa tsakanin Amurka da Isra'ila da ke kwatanta lalata cibiyoyin nukiliyar Iran.
Rikici ya tashi sosai don samun nasara a tattaunawar. Hukumar kula da makamashin nukliya ta duniya IAEA ta tabbatar da cewa a wannan watan ne Iran ta kasance wadatar da uranium har zuwa kashi 20 cikin dari a karkashin kasa makamanta a Fordo, wurin da JCPOA ya hana wadata. A cewar hukumar ta IAEA, tun lokacin da Trump ya fitar da Amurka daga JCPOA, Iran ta kara inganta inganta sinadarin Uranium zuwa kashi 60 cikin dari (idan aka kwatanta da 3.67% karkashin yarjejeniyar), a hankali yana matsawa kusa da kashi 90 cikin XNUMX da ake bukata na makamin nukiliya. A watan Satumba, Cibiyar Kimiyya da Tsaro ta Duniya bayar da rahoton cewa, a karkashin "ƙididdigar mafi munin fashewa," a cikin wata guda Iran za ta iya samar da isassun kayan fissile na makamin nukiliya.
Ficewar Amurka daga JCPOA ba wai kawai ya haifar da mafarki mai ban tsoro na wata ƙasa ta Gabas ta Tsakiya ta zama ƙasar nukiliya ba (An bayar da rahoton cewa Isra'ila. yana tsakanin makaman nukiliya 80 zuwa 400), amma tuni ya yi barna mai yawa ga al'ummar Iran. Kamfen din "mafi girman matsin lamba" - na farko Trump amma yanzu a karkashin mallakar Joe Biden - ya addabi Iraniyawa da runaway hauhawar farashin kaya, hauhawar farashin abinci, haya da magunguna, da gurgunta kiwon lafiya sashen. Tun kafin barkewar cutar ta COVID-19, takunkumin Amurka ya kasance hana Iran daga shigo da magunguna masu mahimmanci don magance cututtuka irin su cutar sankarar bargo da farfadiya. A cikin Janairu 2021, Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta fitar da wani Rahoton yana mai bayyana cewa takunkumin da Amurka ta kakabawa Iran yana ba da gudummawa ga "rashin isasshe kuma mara kyau" ga COVID-19. Tare da fiye da 130,000 da aka yiwa rajista a hukumance ya zuwa yanzu, Iran tana da mafi adadin mutuwar coronavirus da aka yi rikodin a Gabas ta Tsakiya. Kuma jami'ai sun ce mai yiwuwa adadin ya fi haka.
Idan Amurka da Iran ba za su iya cimma matsaya ba, mafi munin yanayin zai kasance sabon yakin Amurka da Gabas ta Tsakiya. Idan aka yi la'akari da mummunan gazawa da halakar da yakin Iraki da Afghanistan suka yi, yakin da Iran zai zama bala'i. Mutum zai yi tunanin cewa Isra'ila, wacce ke karbar dala biliyan 3.8 a duk shekara daga Amurka, za ta ji cewa wajibi ne ta kada Amurka da mutanensu su shiga irin wannan bala'i. Amma da alama hakan ba haka yake ba.
Ko da yake ana kan hanyar rugujewa, tattaunawar ta sake komawa cikin wannan makon. Iran wadda a halin yanzu take karkashin gwamnati mai tsauri da takunkumin Amurka ya taimaka wajen kawo karagar mulki, ta nuna cewa ba za ta zama mai sasantawa ba kuma Isra'ila ta jahannama wajen yin zagon kasa ga tattaunawar. Wannan yana nufin zai ɗauki kwarin gwiwar diflomasiyya da kuma niyyar yin sulhu daga gwamnatin Biden don sake buga yarjejeniyar. Bari mu yi fatan Biden da masu sasantawarsa su kasance da himma da ƙarfin gwiwa don yin hakan.
Ariel Gold shine babban daraktan ƙasa kuma Babban Manajan Manufofin Gabas ta Tsakiya tare da CODEPINK don Aminci.
Medea Biliyaminu shi ne mai haɓaka CODEPINK don Aminci, kuma marubucin littattafai da yawa, gami da A cikin Iran: Haqiqanin Tarihin Jamhuriyar Musulunci ta Iran.
