By Gareth Porter, Gabas ta Tsakiya.
Ga dukkan girmanta, gwamnatin Trump tana bin al'adar Amurkawa na tilastawa Iran da "mummunan tasirinta"
Furucin farko da gwamnatin shugaba Donald Trump ta yi a bainar jama'a kan Iran ya haifar da ra'ayin cewa Amurka za ta dauki matakin wuce gona da iri kan Jamhuriyar Musulunci fiye da lokacin shugabancin Barack Obama.
Amma duk da kashedin da aka yi wa Tehran ta yanzu tsohon mai ba da shawara kan harkokin tsaro Michael Flynn sannan kuma da Trump din kansa, manufar Iran da ta fara fara aiki a makonnin farko na gwamnatin ta yi kama da na Obama.
Dalili kuwa shi ne manufofin gwamnatin Obama kan Iran sun nuna ra'ayin wata tawagar tsaron kasar da ta yi tsayin daka da taurin kai kamar na gwamnatin Trump.
Flynn ayyana A ranar 1 ga Fabrairu cewa gwamnatin Obama ta "kasa mayar da martani mai kyau game da munanan ayyukan Tehran" kuma ta ba da shawarar cewa abubuwa za su bambanta a karkashin Trump. Sai dai wannan kalamai na yaudara ne, dangane da manufofin gwamnatin Obama game da Iran da kuma zabin da Trump ke da shi na wuce wannan manufar.
'Malign Influence'
Tunanin cewa ko ta yaya Obama ya yi taurin kai da Iran ba ya nuna gaskiyar koyarwar tsohuwar gwamnatin kan Iran.
Yarjejeniyar nukiliyar Obama da Iran ta fusata masu tsattsauran ra'ayi na dama, amma diflomasiyyarsa ta nukiliya ta kasance bisa kokarin tursasa Iran don yin watsi da yawancin shirinta na nukiliya ta hanyar matsin lamba daban-daban, ciki har da hare-haren yanar gizo, takunkumin tattalin arziki da kuma barazanar yiwuwar harin Isra'ila.
Duk da irin kalaman da Trump ya yi game da yadda yarjejeniyar nukiliyar ta yi muni, tuni ya yanke shawarar cewa gwamnatinsa ba za ta yayyaga ko zagon kasa ga yarjejeniyar da Iran ba, lamarin da wasu manyan jami'an gwamnatin suka bayyana a fili da suka yi wa manema labarai karin haske a daidai lokacin da Flynn ya sanar. ” fashe. Tawagar Trump ta gano cewa Isra'ila ko Saudiyya ba sa fatan hakan ta faru.
KU KARANTA: Trump, Isra’ila da Iran: Yawan hayaniya da barazana, amma babu yaki
Dangane da manyan batutuwan da suka shafi tasirin Iran a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya, manufofin Obama sun fi bayyana ra'ayoyin kasar tsaron kasa ta dindindin, wacce ta dauki Iran a matsayin makiyi maras tushe tsawon shekaru da dama, tun bayan da CIA da sojojin Amurka suka yi yaki da kungiyar Islama. Dakarun kare juyin juya hali (IRGC) da mayakan Shi'a a mashigin Hormuz da Beirut a cikin shekarun 1980.
Wani mamba na dakarun kare juyin juya halin Musulunci na Iran yana rera taken bayan ya kai hari kan wani jirgin ruwa a lokacin wani atisayen soji a mashigar Hormuz a watan Fabrairun 2015 (AFP) Kiyayyar da tawagar Trump ta nuna kan rawar da Iran ke takawa a yankin ba ta da bambanci da abin da gwamnatin Obama ta fada tsawon shekaru. Sakataren tsaro James Mattis yana da ake magana akan "mummunan tasirin Iran" kuma ya kira Iran da "mafi girman dakaru" a yankin. Amma Obama da mashawartan harkokin tsaro na kasa Har ila yau, ya yi magana akai-akai game da "ayyukan da ke haifar da zaman lafiya" na Iran.
A cikin 2015, gwamnatin Obama tana amfani da kalmomi kamar "tasirin mummunan" da "ayyukan lalata" sau da yawa cewa ya kasance. An ce ya zama “Sabuwar magana ta Washington".
Shugabanni daban-daban, manufofi iri daya
Tun da Shugaba Bill Clinton, kowace gwamnati ta zargi Iran da kasancewa babbar kasa a duniya mai daukar nauyin ta'addanci, ba bisa ga wata hujja ba, a'a, a matsayin wani ka'ida mai kyau na manufofin Amurka. Tun daga harin bam na Cibiyar Kasuwanci ta Duniya a 1993, gwamnatin Clinton ta zargi Iran da alhakin duk wani harin ta'addanci a duniya tun kafin a fara wani bincike.
Tun da Shugaba Bill Clinton, kowace gwamnati ta zargi Iran da kasancewa babbar kasa a duniya mai daukar nauyin ta'addanci.
Kamar yadda na gano daga tsawaita bincike a duka biyun Buenos Aires ta'addanci ta tashi na 1994 da kuma An kai harin bam a Hasumiyar Khobar na 1996, shaidar da ake tsammani na shigar Iran ko dai babu shi ko kuma ta gurɓace. Amma babu wanda ya hana ci gaba da ba da labarin Iran a matsayin ƙasar ta'addanci.
Wasu mashawartan Trump a gwargwadon rahoton An tattauna yiwuwar umarnin shugaban kasa ga Ma'aikatar Harkokin Wajen Amurka don la'akari da ayyana IRGC a matsayin kungiyar ta'addanci.
KU KARANTA: Rusa yarjejeniyar nukiliya, wargaza fatan zaman lafiya
Amma irin wannan matakin zai kasance ƙarƙashin tsarin martabar siyasa maimakon siyasa mai mahimmanci. IRGC ta riga ta fuskanci takunkumi a ƙarƙashin aƙalla shirye-shiryen takunkumin Amurka daban-daban guda uku, a matsayin masanin shari'a Tyler Culis ya nuna. Bugu da ƙari kuma, Rundunar Quds, reshen IRGC da ke da hannu a ayyukan a wajen Iran, an ayyana shi a matsayin "Ta'addanci na Musamman na Duniya" na kusan shekaru goma.
Game da abu daya tilo da shirin nadin zai iya cimma shi ne baiwa Amurka damar hukunta jami'an Irakin da dakarun Quds ke hada kai da kungiyar IS.
Duk wani tsari na manufofin da ya shafi barazana ko amfani da karfi dole ne Pentagon da Hafsan Hafsoshin Soja su amince da su.
Tawagar Trump ta nuna aniyar ta na bayar da gagarumin goyon baya ga manufofin yankin Saudiyya na kin jinin Iran. Amma a yanzu ya bayyana cewa Trump ba ya son yin wani abu na soji a kan gwamnatin Assad fiye da Obama. Kuma a kan Yemen, sabuwar gwamnatin ba ta shirin yin wani abu da Obama bai riga ya yi ba.
KU KARANTA: Idan Trump ya ci gaba da wannan, rikicin Yemen na iya zama yakin wakili na gaske
Lokacin da aka tambaye shi ko gwamnatin tana "sake tantance" yakin Saudiyya a Yemen, wani babban jami'i ya ba da amsa guda daya: "A'a". Hakan na nuni da cewa Trump zai ci gaba da manufofin gwamnatin Obama na rubuto kamfen din da Saudiyya ke jagoranta a Yemen - samar da iskar gas, bama-bamai da kuma goyon bayan diplomasiyya na siyasa - wanda ya zama dole ga yakin Riyadh.
Don haka gwamnatocin Obama da Trump suna da alhakin kai hare-haren bama-bamai da aka yi a garuruwan da Houthi ke iko da su da gangan da kuma yunwar da ake fama da ita. Yara miliyan 2.2 na Yemen.
Dangane da shirin makami mai linzami na Iran kuwa, babu wani bambanci a tsakanin gwamnatocin biyu. A ranar 1 ga Janairu, Jami'an Trump sun kira Makami mai linzamin na Iran a karshen watan Janairu ya yi gwajin "mai tada hankali" da kuma "mai tayar da hankali". Amma gwamnatin Obama da kawayenta na Turai sun ba da sanarwar sanarwa a cikin Maris 2016 suna kiran gwajin makami mai linzami na Iran "mai tayar da hankali da tayar da hankali".
Trump ya kakabawa Iran takunkumin karya tattalin arziki da ake zargin Iran da yi wa kudurin kwamitin sulhu na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya na shekara ta 2015 - duk da cewa kudurin ya yi amfani da kalaman da ba su da alaka da Iran kuma ba a kera makamai masu linzami na Iran ba don daukar makaman nukiliya. Gwamnatin Obama sanya takunkumi ga zargin da Iran ta yi na keta umarnin gwamnatin Bush na 2005.
Amfani da karfi ba zai yiwu ba
Duk da haka, wani yana iya yin adawa da cewa wannan kwatancen ya ƙunshi kawai bayanan farko na manufofin Trump game da Iran, kuma suna jayayya cewa Washington na shirin kara matsin lamba na soji, gami da yiwuwar amfani da karfi.
KU KARANTA: Dalilin da ya sa Trump ke da Iran a gabansa
Gaskiya ne cewa ba za a iya kawar da yiwuwar aiwatar da manufofin soji mai tsanani daga gwamnatin Trump gaba daya ba, amma duk wata shawara ta siyasa da ta shafi barazana ko amfani da karfi dole ne Pentagon da Hafsan Hafsoshin Soja su amince da su, kuma da wuya hakan ya faru.
Kudin da sojojin Amurka za su kashe na kai wa Iran hari a yau zai fi haka, saboda karfin da Iran ke da shi na mayar da martani ga sansanonin Amurka a Qatar da Bahrain.
Lokaci na ƙarshe da Amurka ta yi tunanin wata arangama ta soji da Iran shine a gwamnatin George W Bush. A shekara ta 2007 mataimakin shugaban kasar Dick Cheney ya ba da shawarar cewa Amurka ta kai hari a Iran a cikin yanayin da Iran ke da shi a yakin Iraki da sojojin Amurka. Amma sakataren tsaro, Robert M Gates, wanda hadin gwiwar hafsan hafsoshin soji ke marawa baya. ya tashi daga kokarin ta hanyar dage cewa Cheney ya bayyana yadda tsarin haɓaka zai ƙare.
Akwai kyakkyawan dalili da ya sa shirin bai yi nasara tare da Pentagon da JCS ba. Lokacin da Amurka za ta iya kaiwa Iran hari ba tare da wani hukunci ba ya riga ya wuce. A shekara ta 2007, duk wani hari da aka kai wa Iran zai iya yin kasadar hasarar yawancin jiragen ruwan Amurka da ke Tekun Fasha ga makamai masu linzami na Iran.
A yau, kudin da za a kashe wa sojojin Amurka zai fi yawa, saboda irin karfin da Iran ke da shi na mayar da martani da makami mai linzami da yawan kudin da aka saba yi wa sansanonin Amurka a Qatar da Bahrain.
A karshe dai, manyan tsare-tsare na manufofin Amurka game da Iran a ko da yaushe suna bayyana ra'ayoyi da muradun kasa ta dindindin fiye da tunanin shugaban kasar. Wannan gaskiyar ta tabbatar da kiyayyar Amurka ga Iran, amma kuma tana nufin ci gaba a maimakon sauye-sauyen siyasa a karkashin Trump.
- Gareth Porter ɗan jarida ne mai bincike mai zaman kansa kuma wanda ya ci kyautar Gellhorn na 2012 don aikin jarida. Shi ne marubucin sabuwar matsalar da aka kera da aka buga: Labarin da ba a bayyana ba na Tsoron Nukiliyar Iran.
Ra'ayoyin da aka bayyana a cikin wannan labarin sun kasance na marubucin kuma ba lallai ba ne su kasance daidai da manufofin edita na Gabas ta Tsakiya.
Hotuna: Iranians sun shiga cikin wani bikin tunawa da zagayowar ranar Iranjuyin juya halin Musulunci na 1979 a Tehran. Iran a ranar 10 ga Fabrairu (Reuters)
