Yaya Nasarar Yaƙin Duniya akan Ta'addanci? Shaidar Tasirin Gyaran baya

by Aminci na Kimiyya ta Duniya, Agusta 24, 2021

Wannan bincike yana taƙaitawa kuma yana yin tunani kan bincike mai zuwa: Kattelman, KT (2020). Tattauna nasarar nasarar Yaƙin Duniya akan Ta'addanci: Yawan hare -haren ta'addanci da tasirin baya. Dynamics of Asymmetric Conflict, 13(1), 67-86. https://doi.org/10.1080/17467586.2019.1650384

Wannan bincike shine kashi na biyu na jerin ɓangarori huɗu na tunawa da ranar tunawa da ranar 20 ga Satumba 11, 2001. A cikin nuna ayyukan ilimi na baya-bayan nan kan mummunan sakamakon yaƙe-yaƙe na Amurka a Iraki da Afganistan da Yaƙin Duniya na Ta'addanci (GWOT) sosai, muna da niyyar wannan jerin don sake haifar da sake tunani game da martanin Amurka game da ta'addanci da buɗe tattaunawa kan hanyoyin da ba za a iya amfani da su ba don yaƙi da tashin hankali na siyasa.

Zancen magana

• A cikin Yaƙin Duniya na Ta'addanci (GWOT), ƙasashe masu haɗin gwiwa tare da tura sojoji a Afghanistan da Iraki sun fuskanci hare -haren ta'addanci na ƙetare na ƙasashe akan 'yan ƙasa a matsayin mayar da martani.
• Sakamakon hare -haren ramuwar gayya na ƙasashe da ƙasashen haɗin gwiwa suka fuskanta ya nuna Yaƙin Duniya na Ta'addanci bai cika babban maƙasudin sa na kare 'yan ƙasa daga ta'addanci ba.

Mahimmin Bayani don Sanarwa Aiki

• Tattaunawar da ke fitowa game da gazawar Yaƙin Duniya na Ta'addanci (GWOT) yakamata ya haifar da sake nazarin manyan manufofin ketare na Amurka da juyawa zuwa manufofin ƙasashen waje masu ci gaba, wanda zai yi ƙarin kariya don kare 'yan ƙasa daga hare -haren ta'addanci na ƙasashe.

Summary

Kyle T. Kattelman ya bincika ko matakin soji, musamman takalmi a ƙasa, ya rage yawan hare-haren ta'addanci na ƙasashen duniya da Al-Qaeda da ƙungiyoyinsa ke kaiwa ƙasashen haɗin gwiwa yayin Yaƙin Duniya na Ta'addanci (GWOT). Yana ɗaukar takamaiman tsarin ƙasa don bincika idan aikin soji ya yi nasara wajen cimma ɗaya daga cikin mahimman manufofin GWOT-hana hare-haren ta’addanci kan fararen hula a Amurka da Yamma.

Al-Qaeda ta dauki alhakin duka harin da aka kai a watan Maris na 2004 a kan jiragen kasa hudu masu safara a Madrid, Spain, da harin kunar bakin wake da aka kai a watan Yulin 2005 a London, Burtaniya Binciken da ya kara tabbatar da cewa wadannan lamura guda biyu hare-haren ramuwar gayya ne na kasa da kasa. Al-Qaeda ta yi niyyar waɗannan ƙasashe saboda ayyukan sojan da suke ci gaba da yi a GWOT. Waɗannan misalai guda biyu suna nuna yadda gudummawar sojoji a cikin GWOT na iya zama mai fa'ida, mai yuwuwar haifar da harin ta'addanci na ramuwar gayya kan ɗan ƙasa.

Binciken Kattelman ya mai da hankali ne kan tsoma bakin soji, ko sojoji a ƙasa, saboda sune "zuciyar duk wani cin nasara mai adawa" kuma da alama hegemon dimokuradiyya mai sassaucin ra'ayi na Yammacin Turai zai ci gaba da tura su, duk da adawar jama'a, don cimma muradunsu na duniya. Binciken da aka yi a baya ya kuma nuna shaidar hare -haren ramuwar gayya dangane da ayyukan soji da ayyukansu. Koyaya, yana mai da hankali kan nau'in harin, ba ƙungiyar da ke da alhakin ba. A cikin "tattara" bayanai kan hare -haren ta'addanci na ƙasashe, an yi watsi da dalilai daban -daban na akida, ƙabila, zamantakewa, ko na addini na ƙungiyoyin 'yan ta'adda.

Gina kan dabarun baya na baya -bayan nan, marubucin ya ba da shawarar ƙirar sa wacce ta mai da hankali kan iyawa da motsawa don fahimtar tasirin tasirin tura sojojin ƙasa a kan yawan hare -haren ta'addanci. A cikin yakin asymmetric, ƙasashe za su sami ƙarfin soja mafi girma dangane da kungiyoyin 'yan ta'adda da za su iya yaƙi, kuma duka ƙasashe da ƙungiyoyin ta'addanci za su sami matakan motsawa daban -daban na kai hari. A cikin GWOT, ƙasashe masu haɗin gwiwa sun ba da gudummawar sojoji da waɗanda ba na soji ba zuwa wurare daban-daban. Dalilin Al-Qaeda na kai hari ga membobin kawancen da suka wuce Amurka ya bambanta. Dangane da haka, marubucin yayi hasashen cewa mafi girman gudummawar sojan memba na haɗin gwiwa ga GWOT, mafi kusantar zai kasance yana fuskantar hare-haren ta'addanci na ƙasa da ƙasa daga Al-Qaeda, kamar yadda aikin sojan sa zai ƙara ƙarfafa ƙungiyar Al-Qaeda don kai mata hari.

Don wannan binciken, an samo bayanai daga rumbun bayanai daban-daban da ke bin diddigin ayyukan ta’addanci da gudummawar rundunar soji zuwa Afganistan da Iraki tsakanin 1998 da 2003. Musamman, marubucin ya bincika abubuwan da suka faru na “amfani da ƙarfi da tashin hankali ba bisa ƙa’ida ba daga wani ɗan wasan da ba na gwamnati ba don samun canjin siyasa, tattalin arziki, addini ko zamantakewa ta hanyar tsoro, tilastawa ko tursasawa ”wanda aka danganta ga Al-Qaeda da rassanta. Don ware hare-hare a cikin “ruhun 'yaƙi' 'daga samfurin, marubucin ya bincika abubuwan da suka faru" masu zaman kansu daga masu tayar da kayar baya ko wasu nau'ikan rikice-rikice. "

Sakamakon ya tabbatar da cewa membobin kawancen da ke ba da gudummawar sojoji zuwa Afghanistan da Iraki a cikin GWOT sun sami karuwar hare -haren ta'addanci na kasa da kasa kan 'yan kasarsu. Bugu da ƙari, mafi girman matakin bayar da gudummawa, wanda aka auna ta yawan adadin sojoji, ya fi yawaitar hare -haren ta'addanci na ƙasashe. Wannan gaskiya ne ga ƙasashe goma na haɗin gwiwa tare da mafi yawan matsakaicin tura sojoji. Daga cikin manyan ƙasashe goma, akwai wasu da yawa waɗanda suka ɗan fuskanci hare -haren ta'addanci na ƙasa da ƙasa ko kafin a tura sojoji amma daga baya aka sami babban tsalle a hare -haren. Dakatar da sojoji ya ninka ninki biyu na yiwuwar wata ƙasa ta fuskanci harin ta'addanci na ƙasa da ƙasa daga Al-Qaeda. A zahiri, ga kowane ƙaruwa ɗaya na gudummawar sojoji akwai karuwar 11.7% a yawan hare-haren ta'addanci na ƙasa da ƙasa na Al-Qaeda akan ƙasar da ke ba da gudummawa. Zuwa yanzu, Amurka ta ba da gudummawar mafi yawan sojoji (118,918) kuma ta fuskanci mafi yawan hare-haren ta'addanci na Al-Qaeda (61). Don tabbatar da cewa ba Amurka kadai ke jagorantar bayanan ba, marubucin ya gudanar da ƙarin gwaje -gwaje kuma ya kammala cewa babu wani babban canji a sakamakon tare da cire Amurka daga samfurin.

A takaice dai, an sami koma baya, a cikin nau'in hare -haren ta'addanci na ƙasashe na ramuwar gayya, game da tura sojoji a cikin GWOT. Tsarin tashin hankali da aka nuna a cikin wannan binciken yana ba da shawarar ra'ayin cewa ta'addanci tsakanin ƙasashe ba na yau da kullun bane, tashin hankali. Maimakon haka, 'yan wasan "masu hankali" za su iya tura ayyukan ta'addanci tsakanin ƙasashe cikin dabaru. Hukuncin wata kasa ta shiga cikin tashin hankalin da sojoji ke yi kan kungiyar 'yan ta'adda na iya karawa kungiyar' yan ta'adda kwarin gwiwa, ta yadda za ta kai ga kai harin ta'addanci na kasa da kasa kan 'yan kasar. A takaice, marubucin ya kammala da cewa GWOT bai yi nasara ba wajen sanya 'yan ƙasa membobin haɗin gwiwa su kasance cikin aminci daga ta'addanci na ƙasa.

Sanarwa da Aiki

Duk da takaitaccen mayar da hankali kan wannan bincike kan tura sojoji da tasirinsa kan wani yanki na ta'addanci, binciken na iya zama mai ilmantarwa ga manufofin ketare na Amurka da yawa. Wannan binciken ya tabbatar da wanzuwar tasirin mayar da martani ga sa hannun sojoji a yakin da ake yi da ta'addanci tsakanin ƙasashe. Idan makasudin shine a kiyaye 'yan ƙasa lafiya, kamar yadda ya kasance tare da GWOT, wannan binciken yana nuna yadda tsoma bakin soji zai iya haifar da illa. Bugu da ƙari, GWOT yana da farashi sama da dala tiriliyan 6, kuma sama da mutane 800,000 ne suka mutu sakamakon haka, ciki har da fararen hula 335,000, a cewar Kudin Shirin Yaƙi. Kasancewa da wannan a zuciya, yakamata tsarin manufofin ketare na Amurka ya sake duba dogaro da ƙarfin soji. Amma, alas, manyan manufofin ƙasashen waje kusan suna ba da tabbacin ci gaba da dogaro da sojoji a matsayin “mafita” ga barazanar ƙasashen waje, yana mai nuna buƙatar Amurka ta yi la’akari da rungumar manufofin kasashen waje masu ci gaba.

A cikin manyan manufofin ƙasashen waje na Amurka, akwai mafita manufofin ƙimanta aikin soji. Misali irin wannan shine a dabarun soji mai shiga tsakani kashi hudu don magance ta'addanci tsakanin ƙasashe. Da farko dai, wannan dabarar tana ba da shawarar hana bullar ƙungiyar ta’addanci tun farko. Ƙarfafa ƙarfin soji da sake fasalin ɓangaren tsaro na iya haifar da kayar da ƙungiyar 'yan ta'adda nan take amma ba zai hana ƙungiyar ta sake kafa kanta a nan gaba ba. Abu na biyu, yakamata a aiwatar da dabarun siyasa na dogon lokaci da bangarori daban-daban, gami da abubuwan soji da wadanda ba na soji ba, kamar tabbatar da zaman lafiya da ci gaban bayan rikici. Abu na uku, aikin soji ya zama na ƙarshe. A ƙarshe, yakamata a haɗa dukkan ɓangarorin da abin ya shafa a cikin tattaunawar don kawo ƙarshen tashin hankali da rikicin makamai.

Ko da yake abin yabawa ne, mafitar manufar da ke sama har yanzu tana buƙatar sojoji su taka rawa a wani matakin - kuma ba ta ɗaukar hankali sosai cewa aikin soja na iya haɓaka, maimakon ragewa, raunin mutum don kai hari. Kamar yadda wasu suka yi gardama, har ma da tsoma bakin sojan Amurka da aka yi niyya sosai na iya haifar da tabarbarewar lamarin. Wannan bincike da yarjejeniya mai tasowa akan gazawar GWOT yakamata a sake yin nazari akan babban tsarin manufofin ketare na Amurka. Ci gaba fiye da manufofin ketare na yau da kullun, manufofin ƙasashen waje masu ci gaba zasu haɗa da lissafi don yanke shawara mara kyau na ƙasashen waje, ƙimar ƙawance da yarjejeniyoyin duniya, yaƙi da yaƙi, tabbatar da haɗin kai tsakanin manufofin gida da na waje, da rage kasafin kuɗin soja. Aiwatar da sakamakon wannan binciken zai nuna gujewa daukar matakin soji akan 'yan ta'adda na kasa da kasa. Maimakon tsoratarwa da wuce gona da iri kan barazanar ta'addanci na kasa da kasa a matsayin hujja ta zahiri ga aikin soji, yakamata gwamnatin Amurka tayi la’akari da karin barazanar barazana ga tsaro tare da yin la’akari da yadda wadancan barazanar ke taka rawa a fitowar ta’addanci na kasa da kasa. A wasu lokuta, kamar yadda aka fayyace a cikin binciken da aka yi a sama, tsoma bakin sojoji a kan ta'addanci na ƙasa na iya ƙara haɗarin 'yan ƙasa. Rage rashin daidaituwa a duniya, rage canjin yanayi na duniya, da hana taimako ga gwamnatoci masu aikata laifuffukan haƙƙin ɗan adam za su yi kari don kare Amurkawa daga ta'addanci tsakanin ƙasashe fiye da ayyukan soji. [KH]

Karatun Karatu

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Kalmomin mahimmanci: Yakin Duniya akan Ta'addanci; ta'addanci tsakanin ƙasashe; Al-Qaeda; yaki da ta'addanci; Iraki; Afghanistan