Yaya Miliyoyin Miliyoyin An Kashe a Post-9 / 11 Wars? Sashe na 3: Libya, Siriya, Somalia da Yemen

A cikin ɓangare na uku da na karshe na jerinsa, Nicolas JS Davies ya binciki mutuwar da aka yi wa Amurka da rikici a Libya, Siriya, Somalia da kuma Yemen, kuma ya nuna muhimmancin ilmantar da yaƙin yaki.

By Nicolas JS Davies, Afrilu 25, 2108, Consortium News.

A cikin sassan biyu na wannan rahoto, na kiyasta cewa game da An kashe mutane miliyan 2.4 a sakamakon sakamakon mamaye na Amurka da Iraki, yayin da An kashe mutane miliyan 1.2 a Afghanistan da Pakistan sakamakon yakin da Amurka ta jagoranta a Afghanistan. A kashi na uku kuma na karshe na wannan rahoton, zan kiyasta mutane nawa aka kashe sakamakon ayyukan sojan Amurka da ayyukan CIA a Libya, Syria, Somalia da Yemen.

Daga cikin kasashen da Amurka ta kai farmaki da kuma tayar da hankali tun lokacin da 2001, Iraki kawai ta kasance cikin matukar binciken "mutuwa" wanda ke iya bayyana wasu mutuwar da ba a bayyana ba. Wani bincike na mace-mace "mai aiki" yana daya daga cikin 'yan bincike na' 'rayayye' wadanda ke ba da labarin mutuwar da ba a taba bayar da rahotanni ba ko rahotanni ko wasu asutun da aka buga.

Wadannan nazarin sukan sauke su ne da mutanen da ke aiki a fagen lafiyar jama'a, kamar su Les Roberts a Jami'ar Columbia, da Gilbert Burnham a Johns Hopkins da Riyadh Lafta a Jami'ar Mustansiriya dake Baghdad, wanda ya hada da 2006 Lancet binciken na yakin Iraqi. A yayin kare karatunsu a cikin Iraki da sakamakonsu, sun jaddada cewa kungiyoyin binciken na Iraki suna da 'yanci daga gwamnatin mamayar kuma hakan yana da muhimmiyar mahimmanci ga hakikanin karatunsu da kuma yarda mutanen Iraki su yi magana da su da gaskiya.

Binciken cikakken mutuwa a wasu ƙasashe masu fama da yaki (kamar Angola, Bosnia, Jamhuriyar Demokradiyar Kongo, Guatemala, Iraki, Kosovo, Ruwanda, Sudan da Uganda) sun bayyana yawan mutuwar da suka mutu 5 zuwa 20 sau wadanda aka saukar da su ta hanyar "ragowar" rahoto bisa ga rahotanni, bayanan asibiti da / ko bincike na ɗan adam.

Idan babu irin wannan karatu a Afganistan, Pakistan, Libya, Syria, Somalia da kuma Yemen, Na yi nazari akan rahotanni masu yawa game da mutuwar yaki kuma sun yi kokarin tantance irin mutuwar wadannan rahotanni mai mahimmanci za su iya ƙidaya ta hanyoyin da suke da su An yi amfani dasu, bisa la'akari da ainihin mutuwar da aka bayar da rahoton mutuwar da aka samu a sauran yankunan yaki.

Na kiyasta yawan tashin hankali. Babu ɗayan ƙididdigar da na yi wanda ya haɗa da mutuwa daga tasirin yaƙe-yaƙe kai tsaye, kamar lalata asibitoci da tsarin kiwon lafiya, yaɗuwar cututtukan da ba za a iya kiyayewa ba da sakamakon rashin abinci mai gina jiki da gurɓacewar muhalli, waɗanda suma sun kasance masu mahimmanci a duk waɗannan ƙasashe.

Ga Iraki, kimanin na karshe na game da mutane miliyan 2.4 da aka kashe ya dogara akan yarda da kimantawa na 2006 Lancet binciken da 2007 Binciken Bincike na Bincike (ORB), wanda ya kasance daidai da juna, sa'an nan kuma amfani da wannan rabo na ainihin mutuwar don mutuwa ta ruwaito mutuwa (11.5: 1) a tsakanin Lancet nazarin da Irakin Jumhuriyar Iraki (IBC) a cikin 2006 zuwa kididdigar IBC na shekaru tun daga 2007.

Ga Afghanistan, na kiyasta game da An kashe 875,000 Afghans. Na bayyana cewa rahotonnin shekara-shekara kan rayukan fararen hula da Ofishin Jakadancin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya a Afghanistan (UNAMA) sun dogara ne kawai akan binciken da Hukumar Kula da 'Yancin Dan Adam ta Afghanistan (AIHRC) ta kammala, kuma da gangan suka keɓe yawancin rahotanni na mutuwar fararen hula da AIHRC ba ta bincika ba ko kuma ba ta kammala binciken ta ba. Rahotannin na UNAMA ba su da wani rahoto kwata-kwata daga yankuna da yawa na kasar inda Taliban da sauran rundunonin adawa na Afghanistan ke aiki, kuma inda yawancin ko mafi yawan hare-haren jiragen sama na Amurka da hare-haren dare suke faruwa.

Na kammala cewa rahoton UNAMA game da mutuwar farar hula a Afghanistan ya zama rashin dacewa kamar yadda rahoton da aka yi a baya bayanan da aka samu a karshen yakin basasar Guatemala, lokacin da hukumar kula da kididdiga ta Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta bayyana saurin 20 fiye da mutuwar da aka ruwaito a baya.

Ga Pakistan, na kiyasta game da An kashe mutane 325,000. Hakan ya dogara ne da kiyasin da aka buga na mutuwar mayaka, da kuma yin amfani da matsakaicin adadin da aka samu a yakin da ya gabata (12.5: 1) zuwa yawan mutuwar farar hula da rahoton ya ruwaito Taron Ta'addanci na Asiya ta Kudu ta Kudu (SATP) a India.

Rahoton mutuwar Libya, Siriya, Somaliya da Yemen

A cikin sashe na uku da na karshe na wannan rahoto, zan kwatanta mutuwar da Amurka ta yi wa rikici da rikici a Libya, Siriya, Somaliya da Yemen.

Babban jami'in soji na Amurka sun yaba US koyaswar kariya da wakili yaki wanda ya sami cikakken fure a karkashin gwamnatin Obama a matsayin "Disguised, shiru, mara waya-free" gab da yaƙi, kuma sun gano ci gaban wannan koyarwar zuwa yaƙe-yaƙe na Amurka a Amurka ta Tsakiya a cikin 1980s. Yayin da Amurka daukar ma'aikata, horo, umarni da kuma kula da 'yan wasa na mutuwa a Iraq an sanya shi "Zazzabin Salvador," in ji US a Libya, Siriya, Somalia da kuma Yemen sun bi wannan samfurin a hankali.

Wadannan yaƙe-yaƙe sun kasance masifa ga mutanen da suke cikin wadannan ƙasashe, amma mahimmancin 'yan tawaye na Amurka da suka kasance ba su kyauta ba ne ya yi nasara a cikin maganganun farfaganda cewa mafi yawancin Amirkawa sun san kadan game da rawar da Amurka ke takawa a cikin tashin hankali da kuma rikici. hargitsi da ya shafe su.

Kasancewar yanayin da ke dauke da makami mai linzami na musamman a Syria a ranar talata 14, 2018 ya nuna bambanci ga yakin basasa da ke dauke da kwayar cutar, ba tare da watsa labaru ba, wanda ya hallaka Raqqa, Mosul da sauran Siriya. Birane Iraqi da fiye da 100,000 bama-bamai da makamai masu linzami tun 2014.

Mutanen Mosul, Raqqa, Kobane, Sirte, Fallujah, Ramadi, Tawergha da Deir Ez-Zor sun mutu kamar bishiyoyi da ke fadowa a cikin dajin da babu masu ba da rahoto daga Yammacin Turai ko ma'aikatan TV da za su rubuta irin kisan gillar da suka yi. Kamar yadda Harold Pinter ya tambaya game da laifukan yakin Amurka na farko a cikin sa 2005 Nobel yarda da magana,

“Shin sun faru? Kuma shin a kowane yanayi ana danganta su da manufofin ƙetare na Amurka? Amsar ita ce eh, sun faru, kuma a kowane yanayi suna da nasaba da manufofin ƙasashen waje na Amurka. Amma ba za ku sani ba. Bai taba faruwa ba. Babu abin da ya taɓa faruwa. Ko yayin da yake faruwa, hakan bai faru ba. Ba damuwa. Ba shi da wani amfani. ”

Don ƙarin cikakken bayani game da muhimmancin da Amurka ta taka a cikin waɗannan yaƙe-yaƙe, don Allah karanta abin da nake rubutun, "Yarda da Yakin Da yawa" da aka buga a Janairu 2018.

Libya

Hukumomin da NATO da magoya bayanta na Larabawa kawai suka yi sun yi watsi da su akalla 7,700 bama-bamai da makamai masu linzami a kan Libya da kuma ya mamaye shi tare da jami'an aiki na musamman fara a Fabrairu 2011 ya kasance Majalisar Dinkin Duniya na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya 1973, wanda ya ba da damar "duk matakan da ake bukata" don kare manufar kare fararen hula a Libya.

Amma yakin a maimakon haka ya kashe fararen hula da yawa fiye da duk wani kiyasi na adadin da aka kashe a tawayen farko a watan Fabrairu da Maris 2011, wanda ya fara daga 1,000 (wani kiyasin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya) zuwa 6,000 (a cewar Kungiyar Kare Hakkin Dan Adam ta Libya). Don haka yaƙin ya ɓace a cikin bayanin da aka ba shi, wanda aka ba shi izini, don kare fararen hula, duk da cewa ya yi nasara a wani daban da mara izini: hamɓarar da gwamnatin Libya ba bisa ƙa'ida ba.

Resolutionudirin SC 1973 ya fito fili ya haramta “rundunar mamayar baƙi ta kowane fanni a kowane yanki na ƙasar Libya.” Amma NATO da kawayenta sun kaddamar wani rikici na Libya da dubban Qatari da kuma jami'an tsaro na Yammacin Turai, wadanda suka shirya yunkurin 'yan tawaye a duk fadin kasar, wanda ake kira a cikin tashar jiragen saman sama da dakarun gwamnati da kuma jagorancin harin da aka kai kan hedkwatar rundunar sojin Bab al-Aziziya a Tripoli.

Qatari Babban Jami'ai Major Hamad bin Ali Ati Atiya, da girman kai ya shaida wa AFP,

“Mun kasance a cikinsu kuma lambobin Qataris a ƙasa sun kasance cikin ɗaruruwan a kowane yanki. Horarwa da sadarwa sun kasance a hannun Qatar. Qatar… ta kula da shirye-shiryen 'yan tawayen saboda su farar hula ne kuma ba su da isasshen kwarewar soja. Mun yi aiki a matsayin mahada tsakanin 'yan tawaye da sojojin NATO. "

Akwai rahotanni masu mahimmanci wani jami'in tsaron Faransa har ma sun sami nasarar juyin mulki wanda ya kashe shugaban Gaddafi Muammar Gaddafi, bayan da aka kama shi, an yi masa azaba da kuma wulakanta shi tare da wuka ta hanyar 'yan tawayen NATO.

A majalisar Harkokin Binciken Harkokin Harkokin Harkokin Waje a Birtaniya a cikin 2016 ya tabbatar da cewa "wata hanya ta kare don kare 'yan farar hula ya shiga cikin tsarin manufar juyin mulki ta hanyar soja," sakamakon haka, "rikice-rikice na siyasa da tattalin arziki, rikice-rikice-rikice-rikice-rikice-rikice-rikice-rikice-rikice-rikice-rikice, yaduwar cin zarafin bil adama, yaduwar Gaddafi da makamai a duk fadin yankin da ci gaban Isil [Islamic State] a arewacin Afrika. "

Rahotanni masu yawa na mutuwar mutane a Libya

Da zarar an kifar da gwamnatin Libya, 'yan jaridu sun yi kokarin yin bincike game da batun mutuwar fararen hula, wanda ke da matukar muhimmanci ga hujjojin doka da siyasa na yakin. Amma majalisar rikon kwarya ta kasa (NTC), sabuwar gwamnatin da ba ta da tabbas da wadanda suka yi gudun hijira daga kasashen yamma da 'yan tawaye suka kafa, sun daina bayar da kiyasin asarar rayukan jama'a tare da ba da umarnin ga ma'aikatan asibiti. ba don saki labarai ga manema labarai ba.

A kowane hali, kamar yadda a cikin Iraki da Afganistan, ruwaye sun cika lokacin yakin kuma mutane da yawa sun binne 'yan uwa a cikin gida ko kuma duk inda zasu iya, ba tare da sun kai su asibitoci ba.

Wani shugaban 'yan tawaye da aka kiyasta a watan Agusta 2011 An kashe 50,000 Libyans. Sannan, a ranar 8 ga Satumbar 2011, Naji Barakat, sabon ministan kiwon lafiya na NTC, ya ba da sanarwa cewa An kashe mutane 30,000 kuma wasu 4,000 sun bata, bisa binciken asibitoci, da jami'ai na gari da kuma kwamandojin 'yan tawaye a mafi yawan kasar da NTC ta sarrafa a lokacin. Ya ce za a dauki wasu karin makonni kafin a kammala binciken, don haka ya yi tsammanin alkaluman karshe za su fi haka.

Bayanin na Barakat bai hada da alkalumman da suka hada da na fada da na farar hula ba. Amma ya ce kusan rabin mutane 30,000 da aka ruwaito sun mutu sojoji ne masu biyayya ga gwamnati, ciki har da mambobi 9,000 na Khamis Brigade, karkashin jagorancin dan Gaddafi Khamis. Barakat ya nemi jama'a da su kawo rahoton mutuwar da aka yi a cikin danginsu da kuma bayanan wadanda suka bata lokacin da suka zo masallatai don yin salla a ranar Juma'ar. Kimanin NTC na mutanen 30,000 da aka kashe ya bayyana ya kunshi galibi mayaka a bangarorin biyu.

Binciken mafi yawan binciken yaki da yaƙe-yaƙe tun lokacin karshen yakin 2011 a Libya shi ne "nazari na al'umma" "2011 Ta'addanci na Rundunar Soja ta Libiya: Mutuwa, Raunin Daji da Mutuwa."  An wallafa shi ne daga malaman likitoci uku daga Tripoli, kuma an buga su a cikin Littafin Afrika na Magungunan gaggawa a 2015.

Marubutan sun ɗauki bayanan mutuwar mutane, rauni da kuma hijirar da Ma'aikatar Gidaje da Tsare-tsare ta tattara, kuma suka aika ƙungiyoyi don yin tattaunawa kai-tsaye da memba na kowace iyali don tabbatar da yawan membobin gidansu da aka kashe, rauni ko gudun hijira Ba su yi ƙoƙarin raba kisan fararen hula da mutuwar mayaƙa ba.

Kuma ba su yi ƙoƙarin yin lissafin lissafi ba a baya ba tare da bayyana su ba ta hanyar hanyar binciken "samfurin samfurin" Lancet binciken a cikin Iraki. Amma binciken rikice-rikicen da aka yi a Libya shi ne mafi cikakken rikodin wadanda aka tabbatar da mutuwa a yakin Libya har zuwa watan Fabrairun 2012, kuma ya tabbatar da mutuwar a kalla mutane 21,490.

A 2014, rikice-rikice da rikice-rikicen da ake fuskanta a Libya sun shiga cikin abin da Wikipedia ke kira yanzu karo na biyu na yakin basasa na Libya.  Kungiyar ta kira Littafin Jirgin Libya (LBC) ya fara farautar tashin hankali a Libya, bisa ga rahotanni, game da samfurin Irakin Jumhuriyar Iraki (IBC). Amma LBC kawai yayi hakan ne tsawon shekaru uku, daga watan Janairun 2014 har zuwa Disambar 2016. Ya kirga mace-mace 2,825 a 2014, 1,523 a 2015 da 1,523 a 2016. (Yanar gizo LBC ya ce kwatsam ne kawai adadin ya yi daidai a 2015 da 2016 .)

Ƙasar Birtaniya Ƙungiyar Amincewa da Yankewar Armed da Bayani (ACLED) Har ila yau, aikin ya ci gaba da kirga yawan mace-macen da ake yi a Libya. ACLED ya kirga mutuwar 4,062 a cikin 2014-6, idan aka kwatanta da 5,871 da aka ƙidaya ta Lissafin Jikin Libya. Ga sauran lokacin tsakanin Maris 2012 da Maris 2018 da LBC ba ta rufe ba, ACLED ya kirga mutuwar 1,874.

Idan LBC ta rufe dukan lokacin tun daga watan Maris na 2012, kuma ya samo daidai wannan lambar fiye da ACLED kamar yadda ya yi don 2014-6, zai ƙidaya mutanen 8,580 da aka kashe.

Bayyana yawan mutanen da aka kashe a Libya

Hada lambobi daga Rundunar 2011 ta Cutar Gida ta Libya da kuma haɗinmu, wanda aka kwatanta da shi daga Libya Jumlar Jikit da ACLED Ya ba da rahoton 30,070 cikakkiyar rahoton mutuwar tun watan Fabrairu 2011.

Rundunar 'Yan Tawaye ta Libya (LAC) ta dogara ne akan takardun gwamnati a cikin kasar da ba ta da zaman lafiya, gwamnati mai ungiya ta kimanin shekaru 4, yayin da Libya Body Count ya yi ƙoƙari don biyan Ƙungiyar Jumhuriyar Iraki da ke kokarin ƙaddamar da gidan yada labarai. ta hanyar ba abin dogara kawai ga asalin labarai na harshen Ingilishi ba.

A Iraki, rashi tsakanin 2006 Lancet binciken da kuma Iraki Jumlar Jumhuriyar ta fi girma saboda IBC ne kawai ke ƙidaya fararen hula, yayin da Lancet binciken da aka kirga mayaka 'yan Iraki da kuma fararen hula. Ba kamar Bodyididdigar Jumlar Iraki ba, duk manyan hanyoyin da muke da su a cikin Libya sun ƙidaya fararen hula da mayaƙa. Dangane da bayanin layi daya na kowane abin da ya faru a cikin Libya Ƙungiya Ƙidaya database, LBC duka ya bayyana ya hada da kusan rabin fama da rabi fararen hula.

An ƙidaya yawan mutanen da aka kashe a daidai lokacin da suke farar hula, kuma dakarun sojan suna da sha'awar yin la'akari da mutuwar abokan gaba da gano ainihin kansu. Kishiyar ba gaskiya ba ne game da mutuwar farar hula, wanda kusan kusan shaidu ne game da laifukan yaki da cewa sojojin da suka kashe su suna da sha'awar kawarwa.

Don haka, a {asar Afghanistan da Pakistan, na magance wa] anda ke fama da farar hula, dabam-dabam, suna yin amfani da rahotannin dake tsakanin rahotanni da kuma nazarin mace, kawai ga farar hula, yayin da suka amince da mutuwar 'yan bindigar, kamar yadda aka bayar da rahoto.

Amma sojojin da ke yaki a Libya ba su da rundunar sojin kasa tare da tsananin tsarin umarni da tsarin da ke haifar da rahotanni masu kyau game da mutuwar sojoji a wasu ƙasashe da kuma rikice-rikice, don haka dukkanin farar hula da masu fama da mutuwar sun kasance suna da muhimmanci sosai ta hanyar da na biyun babban tushe, the Libya Armed rikici nazarin da Libya Ƙungiya Ƙidaya. A zahiri, ƙididdigar majalisar rikon kwarya ta (NTC) daga watan Agusta da Satumba na 2011 na mutuwar 30,000 sun riga sun fi yawan mutanen da ke mutuwa a cikin binciken LAC.

Lokacin da 2006 Lancet an buga nazarin yawan mace-mace a Iraki, ya bayyana sau 14 adadin wadanda aka kidaya a cikin Irakin Jikin Kirki na jerin sunayen mutuwar fararen hula. Amma daga baya IBC ya gano ƙarin mace-mace daga wannan lokacin, yana rage rabo tsakanin Lancet nazarin binciken da kuma ƙididdigar IBC zuwa 11.5: 1.

Dukkanin sun hada ne daga binciken na 2011 na Libya da aka yi wa Armed Conflict da kuma Libya Libyan Count ya zama mafi girma yawan mutuwar mutane da dama fiye da Iraki Count Count a Iraki, musamman saboda LAC da LBC duka ƙidaya ƙungiyoyi da kuma fararen hula, kuma saboda Libya Libya Ƙidaya ya hada da mutuwar da aka ruwaito a cikin labarun Labarun Larabci, yayin da IBC ya dogara da gaba ɗaya Fassara harshe na harshen Turanci kuma yana buƙatar "aƙalla mahimman bayanan mai tushe guda biyu" kafin rikodi kowace mutuwar.

A wasu rikice-rikice, ba da rahoton kai tsaye ba ya ƙidaya fiye da kashi ɗaya cikin biyar na mutuwar da aka samu ta hanyar cikakken, "aiki" nazarin annoba. La'akari da duk wadannan abubuwan, yawan mutanen da aka kashe a Libya ya bayyana a wani wuri tsakanin sau biyar zuwa goma sha biyu lambobin da binciken 2011 na Rikicin Libya ya lissafa, Libya Body Count da ACLED.

Don haka na kiyasta cewa an kashe kusan 'yan Libiya 250,000 a yakin, tashin hankali da hargitsi da Amurka da kawayenta suka yi a Libya a watan Fabrairun 2011, wanda ke ci gaba har zuwa yau. Samun rarar 5: 1 da 12: 1 don kidaya mace-mace a matsayin iyakokin waje, mafi karancin adadin mutanen da aka kashe zai zama 150,000 kuma mafi yawa zai zama 360,000.

Syria

The "Disguised, shiru, mara waya-free" Matsayin Amurka a Siriya ya fara ne a ƙarshen 2011 tare da aiki na CIA don farawa mayakan kasashen waje da makamai ta hanyar Turkiyya da Jordan zuwa Siriya, tare da aiki tare da Qatar da Saudi Arabia zuwa tashin hankali da suka fara da zanga-zangar Larabawan Larabci a kan gwamnatin Baharist ta Syria.

Mafi yawan 'yan siyasa da' yan siyasar Siriya haɗakar da zanga-zangar da ba a yi ba a Siriya a 2011 ya yi tsayayya da irin wannan kokarin da kasashen waje ke yi wajen yakin basasa, kuma ya bayar da maganganu masu karfi da suka sabawa tashin hankali, sassan addini da ba da agaji.

Amma kamar yadda binciken da aka gudanar a watan Disamba na 2011 Qatari ya gano cewa 55% na Suriya sun goyi bayan gwamnati, Amurka da abokanta sunyi kokari wajen daidaita tsarin mulkin Libya da suka yi a Syria, da sanin da kyau daga farkon cewa wannan yakin zai zama mafi yawan jini kuma mafi hasara.

CIA da abokan Larabawan Larabawa sun ba da izini dubban ton na makamai da dubban 'yan kasashen waje masu alaka da kungiyar Al-Qaeda zuwa Syria. Makaman sun fara zuwa daga Libya, sannan daga Croatia da Balkans. Sun hada da sararin samaniya, masu harba makamai masu linzami da sauran manyan makamai, bindigogi masu harbi, gurnetin, rokoki da kananan makamai, kuma daga karshe Amurka ta samar da makamai masu linzami masu kariya daga tanki.

A halin yanzu, maimakon yin hadin gwiwa tare da kokarin da Majalisar Dinkin Duniya ta dauka don kawo zaman lafiya ga Siriya a 2012, Amurka da maƙwabcinta sun gudanar da uku "Abokai na Siriya", inda suka bi ka'idodin kansu "Shirin B", suna mai da goyon baya ga ci gaba da ƙara yawan 'yan tawayen Al-Qaeda.  Kofi Annan ya bar aikinsa na rashin godiya a cikin mummunar rikici bayan Sakatariyar Gwamnati Clinton da Birtaniya, Faransa da Saudiyya, sun yi watsi da shirin salama.

Sauran, kamar yadda suke faɗa, tarihi ne, tarihin rikice-rikice da rikice rikice wanda ya jawo Amurka, UK, Faransa, Russia, Iran da duk maƙwabta na Siriya cikin mummunan yanayin. Kamar yadda Phyllis Bennis na Cibiyar Nazarin Manufofin ya lura, wadannan manyan kasashen waje duk a shirye suke su yi yaki da Siriya “zuwa Sham na karshe. "

Bakin boma-bamai da Shugaba Obama ya kaddamar da yunkurin juyin musulunci a jihar 2014 ita ce yakin basasa mafi girman kai tun lokacin yakin Amurka a Vietnam, faduwa fiye da 100,000 bama-bamai da makamai masu linzami akan Syria da Iraq. Patrick Cockburn, gogaggen wakilin Gabas ta Tsakiya na Burtaniya Independent jaridar, kwanan nan ya ziyarci Raqqa, tsohon birnin 6th na Syria, kuma ya rubuta cewa, "Halin ya lalace."

"A wasu biranen Siriya da aka yi ruwan bama-bamai ko kuma an yi ruwan bama-bamai har zuwa abin da za a manta akwai akalla wata gunduma da ta rayu har yanzu," in ji Cockburn. “Wannan haka lamarin yake koda a Mosul na Iraki, kodayake yawancinsu an buge su cikin kango. Amma a Raqqa lalacewa da lalacewar duk suna yaduwa. Lokacin da wani abu ya yi aiki, kamar fitila guda daya, kadai ke yin hakan a cikin gari, mutane na nuna mamaki. ”

Bayyana Mutuwar Mutuwar Siriya a Siriya

Duk kiyasin jama'a na lambobin mutanen da aka kashe a Siriya da na samu sun zo ne tsaye ko kuma kai tsaye daga Siriya mai kula da hakkin Dan-Adam na Siriya (SOHR), wanda Rami Abdulrahman ke jagoranta a Coventry a Burtaniya Shi tsohon fursuna ne na siyasa daga Syria, kuma yana aiki tare da mataimaka hudu a Siriya wadanda kuma suka shiga wani layi na masu fafutukar adawa da gwamnati kusan 230 a duk fadin kasar. Aikin nasa yana karɓar ɗan kuɗi daga Tarayyar Turai, sannan kuma wasu ma daga gwamnatin Burtaniya.

Wikipedia ta ambaci Cibiyar Nazarin Siriya ta Siriya a matsayin wani tushe na daban tare da kimanta yawan asarar rai, amma wannan a zahiri hasashe ne daga alkaluman SOHR. Estimananan ƙididdigar ta Majalisar Dinkin Duniya sun bayyana kuma sun dogara ne akan rahotonnin SOHR.

An soki SOHR saboda ra'ayin adawa ba tare da ɓata lokaci ba, wanda ya haifar da wasu tambayoyi game da ingancin bayanan nata. Da alama ya yiwa fararen hula da gaske kisan da hare-haren sama na Amurka suka kashe, amma wannan na iya kasancewa saboda wahala da haɗarin rahoto daga yankin da ke hannun IS, kamar yadda ya faru a Iraƙi.

SOHR ta yarda cewa ƙididdigar ta ba zata iya zama jimillar duka mutanen da aka kashe a Siriya ba. A cikin rahotonta na baya-bayan nan a cikin watan Maris na 2018, ya kara 100,000 zuwa adadinsa don rama rahoton da ba a kai rahotonsa ba, wasu 45,000 kuma za su yi bayanin fursunonin da aka kashe ko suka bace a tsare na gwamnati sannan kuma 12,000 na mutanen da aka kashe, suka bace ko suka bata a kasar ta Musulunci ko kuma wasu tsare-tsaren 'yan tawaye. .

Tsayawa wadannan gyare-gyare, Rahoton SOHR na watan Maris na 2018 ya rubuta mutuwar 353,935 mayaka da fararen hula a Siriya. Wannan jimillar ta kunshi fararen hula 106,390; 63,820 sojojin Syria; Mambobi 58,130 na mayaka masu goyon bayan gwamnati (ciki har da 1,630 daga Hizbullah da wasu baƙi 7,686); 63,360 Islamic State, Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (tsohon Jabhat al-Nusra) da sauran masu jihadi na Islama; 62,039 sauran mayaka masu adawa da gwamnati; da kuma gawarwakin 196 da ba a tantance ba.

Kashe wannan a cikin fararen fararen hula da kuma fadace-fadace, wadanda suka hada da 106,488 fararen hula da magungunan 247,447 da aka kashe (tare da ƙungiyar 196 ba a san su ba), ciki har da sojojin 63,820 Siriya.

Ƙididdigar SOHR ba ƙididdigar lissafi ba ne kamar 2006 Lancet binciken a cikin Iraki. Amma ba tare da la'akari da ra'ayinsa na masu tayar da kayar baya ba, kungiyar SOHR ta kasance daya daga cikin mafi girman kokarin da ake yi na "kidaya" kirga wadanda suka mutu a wani yakin baya-bayan nan.

Kamar cibiyoyin soja a wasu ƙasashe, Sojojin Siriya na iya adana adadin mutanen da suka rasa rayukansu daidai. Ban da ainihin raunin da sojoji suka yi, zai zama abin da ba a taɓa gani ba don SOHR ya kirga fiye da 20% wasu mutanen da aka kashe a Siriya yakin basasa. Amma rahotanni na SOHR na iya zama cikakke kamar yadda duk kokarin da aka yi na baya don ƙidaya mutuwar ta hanyar "hanyoyi".

Idan aka ɗauki adadin da SOHR ke bayarwa game da mutuwar mutanen da ba sojoji ba kamar 20% na ainihin jimillar da aka kashe yana nufin cewa an kashe fararen hula miliyan 1.45 da waɗanda ba sojoji ba. Bayan da na kara sojojin Syria 64,000 da aka kashe a wannan adadi, na kiyasta cewa kimanin mutane miliyan 1.5 aka kashe a Siriya.

Idan SOHR ya kasance mafi nasara fiye da kowane ƙoƙari na "wucewa" na ƙidaya waɗanda suka mutu a cikin yaƙi, kuma ya ƙidaya 25% ko 30% na mutanen da aka kashe, ainihin adadin da aka kashe zai iya zuwa ƙasa da miliyan 1. Idan ba a sami nasara ba kamar yadda ake gani, kuma ƙididdigarta ta fi kusa da abin da aka saba gani a wasu rikice-rikice, to kusan mutane miliyan 2 ƙila an kashe su da kyau.

Somalia

Yawancin jama'ar Amirka sun tuna da irin yadda {asar Amirka ke yin amfani da shi, a {asar Somalia "Black Hawk Down" abin da ya faru da janyewar sojojin Amurka a cikin 1993. Amma yawancin Amurkawa ba sa tuna, ko ƙila ba su sani ba, cewa Amurka ta sake yin wani "Disguised, shiru, mara waya-free" yan gudun hijira a Somalia a 2006, don tallafawa yakin Habasha.

Somalia ta ƙarshe "ta janye kanta ta hanyar takaddama" karkashin jagorancin Ƙungiyar Kotun Islama (ICU), kungiyar kotunan gargajiya na gargajiya da suka amince su yi aiki tare don mulkin ƙasar. Uungiyar ta ICU ta ƙawance da wani shugaban yaƙi a Mogadishu kuma ta kayar da sauran shugabannin yaƙi waɗanda suka yi mulki a ɓoye tun bayan rugujewar gwamnatin tsakiya a 1991. Mutanen da suka san ƙasar sosai sun yaba da ICU a matsayin wani ci gaba na fata na zaman lafiya da kwanciyar hankali a Somaliya.

Amma dangane da “yakar ta’addanci,” gwamnatin Amurka ta bayyana kungiyar kotunan Islama a matsayin makiyi kuma makasudin daukar matakin soja. Amurka ta ƙawance da Habasha, kishiyar gargajiya ta Somaliya (kuma ƙasa ce mafi rinjaye ta Kirista), kuma aka gudanar hawan iska da kuma aikin soja na musamman don tallafawa wani Habasha mamaye Somaliya don cire ICU daga iko. Kamar yadda a kowace ƙasashe Amurka da kuma bayanansa sun mamaye tun 2001, sakamakon shine ta sa Somaliya ta koma cikin rikici da hargitsi wanda ya ci gaba har yau.

Bayyana Mutuwar Mutuwa a Somalia

Hanyoyin da suka wuce sun kashe mutane da yawa a Somalia tun lokacin da aka kai hari a kasar ta Habasha a 2006 a 20,171 (Uppsala Conflict Data Shirin (UCDP) - ta hanyar 2016) da kuma 24,631 (Yankin Rikicin Makamai da Bayanin Bayanai na Taron (ACLED)). Amma kungiya mai zaman kanta ta gida mai lambar yabo, Cibiyar Aminci da 'Yancin Dan Adam ta Elman a Mogadishu, wadda aka binne kawai ga 2007 da 2008, sun ƙidaya yawan mutuwar 16,210 a cikin wadannan shekaru biyu kadai, 4.7 sau da lambar da aka ƙidaya ta UCDP da 5.8 sau ACLED tally na wadannan shekaru biyu.

A cikin Libya, Bodyididdigar Jikin Libiya kawai an ƙididdige sau 1.45 na yawan mutuwar kamar ACLED. A Somalia, Elman Peace ya kirga sau 5.8 fiye da ACLED - bambanci tsakanin su ya ninka sau 4. Wannan yana nuna cewa kirgen Elman Peace ya ninka kusan sau biyu kamar yadda Libya Body Count yake, yayin da ACLED ke da alama kusan rabin yana da tasiri wajen kirga mace-macen yaki a Somalia kamar Libya.

UCDP ta fi yawan mutuwar fiye da ACLED daga 2006 har zuwa 2012, yayin da ACLED ta buga lambobi fiye da UCDP tun daga 2013. Matsakaicin adadin su biyu ya ba da adadin 23,916 mutuwar tashin hankali daga Yulin 2006 zuwa 2017. Idan Elman Peace ya ci gaba da ƙidaya yaƙi Mutuwar kuma ta ci gaba da nemo 5.25 (matsakaita na 4.7 da 5.8) lambobin da waɗannan ƙungiyoyin sa ido na ƙasa da ƙasa suka gano, da a yanzu za a kirga kimanin mutuwar 125,000 na tashin hankali tun bayan mamayewar Habasha da Amurka ta yi a cikin Yulin 2006.

Amma yayin da Elman Peace ya kirga yawan mace-macen da yawa fiye da UCDP ko ACLED, wannan har yanzu ƙididdigar mutuwar mutane ne a Somaliya. Don kimanta yawan adadin mutuwar yaki wanda ya haifar da shawarar Amurka na halakar da sabuwar gwamnatin ICU ta Somalia, dole ne mu ninka wadannan alkaluman ta hanyar adadin da zai fadi a tsakanin wadanda aka samu a wasu rikice-rikice, tsakanin 5: 1 da 20: 1.

Aiwatar da rabo na 5: 1 zuwa hangen nesa na game da abin da aikin Elman zai iya ƙidaya ta yanzu yana haifar da mutuwar 625,000. Aiwatar da rabo 20: 1 zuwa ƙananan ƙidaya ta UCDP da ACLED zai ba da ƙananan adadi na 480,000.

Yana da wuya a ce aikin Elman yana kirga sama da kashi 20% na ainihin mutuwar a duk Somaliya. A gefe guda kuma, UCDP da ACLED suna kirga rahoton mutuwar ne kawai a Somalia daga sansanoninsu a Sweden da Burtaniya, gwargwadon rahotannin da aka buga, don haka wataƙila sun ƙidaya ƙasa da 5% na ainihin mutuwar.

Idan aikin Elman kawai yana ɗaukar 15% na yawan mutuwar maimakon 20%, wannan na iya nuna cewa an kashe mutane 830,000 tun 2006. Idan ƙididdigar UCDP da ACLED sun kama fiye da 5% na jimlar mutuwar, ainihin jimillar zai iya zama ƙasa fiye da 480,000. Amma wannan yana nuna cewa aikin Elman yana gano mafi girman kaso na ainihin mutuwar, wanda ba zai taɓa faruwa ba don irin wannan aikin.

Don haka ina kiyasta cewa yawan mutanen da aka kashe a Somaliya tun lokacin da 2006 ya kasance wani wuri tsakanin 500,000 da 850,000, tare da yiwuwar mutuwar 650,000.

Yemen

Amurka na daga cikin kawancen da ke ta ruwan bama-bamai a Yemen tun daga 2015 a kokarin dawo da tsohon Shugaban kasar Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi kan mulki. An zabi Hadi ne a shekarar 2012 bayan zanga-zangar juyin juya halin kasashen Larabawa da boren makamai suka tilasta wa tsohon shugaban Yemen mai samun goyon bayan Amurka, Ali Abdullah Saleh yin murabus a watan Nuwamba na 2011.

Umurnin Hadi shi ne tsara sabon kundin tsarin mulki da shirya sabon zabe a cikin shekaru biyu. Bai yi ɗayan waɗannan abubuwa ba, don haka ƙungiyar Zaidi Houthi mai ƙarfi ta mamaye babban birnin a watan Satumbar 2014, suka sanya Hadi a cikin tsare gida kuma suka nemi shi da gwamnatinsa su cika aikinsu kuma su shirya sabon zaɓe.

Zaidis ƙungiya ce ta Shi'a ta musamman wacce take da kashi 45% na yawan jama'ar Yemen. Imamai Zaidi sun yi mulkin mafi yawan Yemen fiye da shekaru dubu. Sunnis da Zaidis sun zauna tare cikin lumana a Yemen tsawon ƙarnuka, yin auratayya gama gari ne kuma suna yin salla a masallatai guda.

An kifar da Zaidi Imam na karshe a yakin basasa a cikin shekarun 1960. A cikin wannan yaƙin, Saudiyyar ta goyi bayan masarautar Zaidi, yayin da Masar ta mamaye Yemen don tallafawa sojojin jamhuriya waɗanda suka kafa Yemen Arab Republic a 1970.

A 2014, Hadi ya ki yarda tare da Houthis, kuma ya yi murabus a Janairu 2015. Ya tsere zuwa Aden, garinsa, sannan ya koma Saudi Arabiya, wacce ta fara wani mummunan harin kamfen din bama-bamai da Amurka ke marawa baya da killace sojojin ruwa don kokarin dawo da shi kan mulki.

Yayin da Saudi Arabiya ke gudanar da mafi yawan hare-haren sama, Amurka ta sayar da mafi yawan jirage, bama-bamai, makamai masu linzami da sauran makaman da take amfani da su. Burtaniya ita ce ta biyu mafi girman samar da makamai daga Saudis. Ba tare da bayanan sirrin tauraron dan adam na Amurka da mai a cikin iska ba, Saudiyya ba za ta iya kai hare-hare ta sama a duk Yemen kamar yadda take yi ba. Don haka katse makaman Amurka, saka mai a iska da tallafin diflomasiyya na iya yanke hukunci wajen kawo karshen yakin.

Bayyana Yakin Mutum a Yemen

An kiyasta jerin hare-haren da ake yi a yakin Yemen a kan bincike na asibitoci a wurin da Hukumar Lafiya ta Duniya ta yi, sau da yawa da aka kaddamar da su. Ofishin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya na Haɗin Harkokin Jin Kai (UNOCHA). Kiyasi na baya-bayan nan, daga Disamba 2017, shi ne cewa an kashe mutane 9,245, gami da fararen hula 5,558.

Amma rahotanni na UNOCHA na Disamba 2017 sun hada da bayanin kula cewa, "Saboda yawan adadin wuraren kiwon lafiyar da ba su aiki ko kuma wani ɓangare na aiki a sakamakon rikice-rikicen, waɗannan lambobi ba su da tushe kuma suna iya girma."

Ko da lokacin da asibitoci ke aiki sosai, mutane da yawa da aka kashe a yaƙi ba sa zuwa asibiti. Hare-hare na sama na Saudiyya sun buge da asibitoci da yawa a Yemen, akwai wani kawancen sojojin ruwa da ke takaita shigo da magunguna, da kuma samar da wutar lantarki, da ruwa, da abinci da man fetur duk bama-bamai da katanga sun shafi su. Don haka taƙaitattun rahoton WHO game da mace-mace daga asibitoci na iya zama ƙananan ƙananan daga ainihin adadin mutanen da aka kashe.

ACLED ya ba da rahoton ɗan adadi kaɗan fiye da WHO: 7,846 har zuwa ƙarshen 2017. Amma ba kamar WHO ba, ACLED yana da bayanan zamani na 2018, kuma ya ba da rahoton wasu mutuwar 2,193 tun daga Janairu. Idan WHO ta ci gaba da bayar da rahoton mutuwar kashi 18% fiye da ACLED, jimlar WHO har zuwa yanzu za ta kasance 11,833.

Ko da UNOCHA da WHO sun yarda da rashin bayar da rahoto game da mutuwar yaƙe-yaƙe a Yemen, kuma rabon tsakanin rahoton rahoton na WHO da ainihin mutuwar sun bayyana zuwa ƙarshen ƙarshen zangon da aka samu a wasu yaƙe-yaƙe, wanda ya bambanta tsakanin 5: 1 da 20: 1. Na kiyasta cewa kusan mutane 175,000 aka kashe - sau 15 lambobin da WHO da ACLED suka ruwaito - tare da mafi ƙarancin 120,000 kuma aƙalla 240,000.

Gaskiya na Mutum na Warsin Amurka

Gabaɗaya, a cikin ɓangarori uku na wannan rahoton, na kiyasta cewa yaƙe-yaƙe na Amurka-9/11 sun kashe kusan mutane miliyan 6. Wataƙila lambar gaskiya ita ce miliyan 5 kawai. Ko wataƙila miliyan 7 ne. Amma na tabbata cewa miliyoyin ne.

Ba wai kawai daruruwan dubban ba, kamar yadda mutane da dama ba su fahimta ba, saboda mutane sun yi imani, saboda ƙaddamar da "rahotanni mai mahimmanci" ba zai iya ba fiye da kashi ɗaya daga cikin lambobin da aka kashe a ƙasashe masu rai ta hanyar irin tashin hankali da hargitsi da ta'addanci a kasarmu ya bayyana a kansu tun daga 2001.

Rahotanni na yau da kullum game da Tsaro na Siriya don 'Yancin Dan Adam hakika ya dauki kashi fiye da dari na ainihin mutuwar fiye da ƙananan ƙididdigar binciken da aka ƙaddamar da cewa an ƙaddamar da su kamar yadda mace ta ƙaddara. Ofishin Jakadancin Majalisar Dinkin Duniya a Afghanistan. Amma dukansu biyun suna wakiltar wani ɓangare ne na yawan mutuwar.

Kuma yawan mutanen da aka kashe ba tabbas ba ne a cikin dubun dubban, kamar yadda mafi yawan jama'a ke a Amurka da kuma a Birtaniya an kai su ga gaskanta, bisa ga ra'ayoyin ra'ayoyin.

Muna buƙatar masu binciken lafiyar jama'a don gudanar da nazari a cikin dukkanin ƙasashe a cikin dukkanin kasashen da Amurka ta shiga yakin tun lokacin 2001, don haka duniya zata iya amsawa daidai da mutuwar da kuma hallaka wadannan yaƙe-yaƙe.

Kamar yadda Barbara Lee ta gargadi takwarorinta tun kafin ta jefa kuri'ar rashin amincewa ita kadai a 2001, mun zama "munin abin da muke haushi." Amma waɗannan yaƙe-yaƙe ba su tare da tsoffin faretin soja (ba tukuna) ko jawabai game da cin duniya. Madadin haka sun sami cancantar siyasa ta "Yakin basira" to demonize abokan gaba da kuma haifar da rikici, sannan kuma ya yi aiki a cikin "Disguised, silence, media free" hanyar, don ɓoye farashin su a cikin jinin mutum daga jama'ar Amurka da duniya.

Bayan shekaru 16, game da mutuwar mutane 6 da yawa, kasashen 6 sun hallaka sosai kuma yawancin suka karu, yana da gaggawa cewa jama'ar Amurka suyi la'akari da kimar dan adam na yakin basasarmu da kuma yadda aka batar da mu kuma muka batar da mu makantar da ido a gare su - kafin su ci gaba, da halakar da} asashe da yawa, har yanzu sun rushe dokar dokokin duniya da kuma kashe miliyoyin miliyoyin 'yan'uwanmu.

As Hannah Arendt ya rubuta in Tushen Totalitarianism, “Ba za mu iya sake samun damar daukar abin da ke da kyau a baya ba kuma kawai mu kira shi gadonmu, mu watsar da munanan kuma kawai mu dauke shi a matsayin mataccen kaya wanda shi kansa lokaci zai iya mantawa da shi. Tarihin Yammacin Turai wanda yake daga ƙarƙashin ƙasa ya ƙarshe kuma ya ƙwace darajar al'adunmu. Wannan ita ce gaskiyar da muke rayuwa a ciki. ”

Nicolas JS Davies shine marubucin Blood On Our Hands: Ƙasar Amirka da Rushewar Iraq. Ya kuma rubuta rubutun a kan "Obama a War" a Cikin Giraren Shugaban 44th: Kwamitin Sake Kira akan Shugabancin Barack Obama na Farko a matsayin Mai Jagora Mai Nasara.