Daga Nicolas JS Davies, Oktoba 12, 2020
Amurkawa suna ma'amala da babban zaben da ke tafe, annobar da ta kashe sama da mu 200,000, da kuma kafafen yada labarai na kamfanoni wadanda tsarin kasuwancin su ya tabarbare ya sayar da nau'ikan "Nunin Trump”Ga masu tallata su. Don haka wanene ke da lokacin da zai kula da sabon yaƙi rabin hanya a duk duniya? Amma tare da yawancin duniya da wahala ta shekaru 20 na Yaƙe-yaƙe da Amurka ke jagoranta da kuma rikice-rikicen siyasa, na jin kai da na 'yan gudun hijira, ba za mu iya ba da hankali ga mummunan barkewar rikici tsakanin Armenia da Azerbaijan kan Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armeniya da Azerbaijan sun yi yaƙi a yakin jini a kan Nagorno-Karabakh daga 1988 zuwa 1994, zuwa ƙarshen abin da aka kashe aƙalla mutane 30,000 yayin da miliyan ko sama da haka suka tsere ko aka kore su daga gidajensu. Zuwa 1994, sojojin Armenia suka mamaye Nagorno-Karabakh da gundumomi bakwai na kewayenta, duk duniya ta amince da su a matsayin ɓangarorin Azerbaijan. Amma yanzu yakin ya sake kunno kai, an kashe daruruwan mutane, kuma bangarorin biyu na yin luguden wuta kan fararen hula da kuma tsoratar da fararen hula.
Nagorno-Karabakh yanki ne mai asali na Armeniya tsawon ƙarnika. Bayan da Daular Fasiya ta mika wannan bangare na Caucasus ga Rasha a Yarjejeniyar Gulistan a 1813, kidayar farko da aka yi shekaru goma daga baya an gano yawan mutanen Nagorno-Karabakh a matsayin 91% na Armeniya. Shawarwarin da USSR ta yanke na sanya Nagorno-Karabakh ga Azerbaijan SSR a cikin 1923, kamar shawararta ta sanya Crimea ga Ukrainian SSR a 1954, yanke shawara ce ta gudanarwa wacce kawai sakamakonta mai hatsari ya bayyana karara lokacin da USSR ta fara wargajewa a karshen 1980s.
A cikin 1988, saboda yawan zanga-zangar, majalisar dokokin yankin Nagorno-Karabakh ta jefa kuri'a daga 110-17 don neman a canza ta daga Azerbaijan SSR zuwa Armenia SSR, amma gwamnatin Soviet ta ƙi amincewa da bukatar kuma rikicin kabilanci ya ta'azzara. A shekarar 1991, Nagorno-Karabakh da kuma yankin da ke makwabtaka da yankin Shahumian, sun gudanar da zaben raba gardama tare da ayyana 'yanci daga Azerbaijan a matsayin Jamhuriyar Artsas, sunan Armeniya na tarihi. Lokacin da yaƙin ya ƙare a 1994, Nagorno-Karabakh da yawancin yankuna da ke kewaye da shi suna hannun Armeniya, kuma dubban ɗaruruwan 'yan gudun hijira sun gudu zuwa bangarorin biyu.
An yi ta gwabzawa tun daga 1994, amma rikice-rikicen da ke faruwa a yanzu shi ne mafi hatsari da kuma kasada. Tun daga 1992, tattaunawar diflomasiyya don sasanta rikicin ta kasance karkashin jagorancin “Rukunin Minsk, ”Wanda Kungiyar Hadin Kai da Tsaro a Turai (OSCE) ta kafa kuma Amurka da Rasha da Faransa suka jagoranta. A cikin 2007, kungiyar Minsk ta haɗu da shugabannin Armenia da Azerbaijan a Madrid kuma suka ba da shawarar tsarin siyasa, wanda aka sani da Ka'idodin Madrid.
Ka'idodin Madrid zasu dawo da gundumomi biyar daga cikin goma sha biyu na Shahumyan lardi zuwa Azerbaijan, yayin da gundumomi biyar na Naborno-Karabakh da gundumomi biyu tsakanin Nagorno-Karabakh da Armenia za su jefa ƙuri'ar raba gardama don yanke shawara game da makomarsu, wanda ɓangarorin biyu za su yi na amincewa da sakamakon. Duk 'yan gudun hijirar suna da' yancin komawa tsoffin gidajensu.
Abun ban haushi, daya daga cikin manyan masu adawa da Ka'idodin Madrid shine Armeniya Kwamitin Kasa na Amurka (ANCA), ƙungiya ce ta zazzaɓi don jama'ar Armeniya mazauna Amurka. Tana goyon bayan iƙirarin Armeniya ga duk yankin da ake takaddama a kansa kuma ba ta amince da Azerbaijan ta mutunta sakamakon ƙuri'ar raba gardama ba. Har ila yau, tana son a bai wa gwamnatin zahiri ta Jamhuriyar Artsakh damar shiga tattaunawar kasa da kasa kan makomarta, wanda mai yiwuwa wannan kyakkyawar shawara ce.
A daya gefen kuma, gwamnatin Azerbaijan ta Shugaba Ilham Aliyev yanzu ta samu cikakken goyon baya daga kasar Turkiya game da bukatar da ta yi cewa dole ne dukkan sojojin Armeniya su kwance damara ko su janye daga yankin da ake takaddama a kansa, wanda har yanzu duniya ta amince da shi a matsayin wani bangare na Azerbaijan. An bayar da rahoton cewa Turkiyya na biyan sojojin haya daga arewacin Siriya da Turkiya ta mamaye don su yi yaki don Azerbaijan, yana mai da kallon masu tsattsauran ra'ayin Sunni da ke kara rura wutar rikici tsakanin Kiristocin Armeniyawa da akasarinsu ‘yan Shi’ar Musulmai‘ Yan Shi’a.
Ta fuskar fuska, duk da wadannan matsayi masu tsaka mai wuya, wannan mummunan tashin hankali ya kamata a warware shi ta hanyar rarraba yankunan da ake takaddama a tsakanin bangarorin biyu, kamar yadda Ka'idodin Madrid suka yi yunƙurin yi. Tarurruka a Geneva da yanzu Moscow kamar suna samun ci gaba game da tsagaita wuta da sabunta diflomasiyya. Ranar Juma'a, 9 ga Oktoba, biyu suna adawa ministocin harkokin waje sun hadu a karon farko a Moscow, a wani taro da Ministan Harkokin Wajen Rasha Sergei Lavrov ya shiga tsakani, kuma a ranar Asabar suka amince da yarjejeniyar tsagaita wuta ta ɗan lokaci don dawo da gawawwaki da musayar fursunoni.
Babban haɗari shi ne ko dai Turkiya, Rasha, Amurka ko Iran su ga fa'idar siyasa ta faɗaɗawa ko kuma shiga cikin wannan rikici. Azerbaijan ta fara kai hare-hare ne a halin yanzu tare da cikakken goyon bayan Shugaba Erdogan na Turkiyya, wanda ga dukkan alamu yana amfani da shi ne don nuna sabon ikon da Turkiyya ke da shi a yankin da kuma karfafa matsayinta a rikice-rikice da rikice-rikice kan Syria, Libya, Cyprus, binciken mai a gabashin tekun Bahar Rum da kuma yankin gaba ɗaya. Idan haka ne, yaushe ne za a ci gaba da wannan kafin Erdogan ya yi maganarsa, kuma shin Turkiyya za ta iya shawo kan tashin hankalin da take fitarwa, kamar yadda ta gagara yin bala'i a Siriya?
Rasha da Iran ba su da abin da za su samu kuma duk abin da za su rasa daga mummunan yaƙi tsakanin Armenia da Azerbaijan, kuma suna kiran zaman lafiya. Shahararren Firayim Ministan Armenia Nikol Pashinyan ya hau mulki bayan Armeniya ta 2018 “Juyin juzu'i”Kuma ya bi manufofin rashin daidaituwa tsakanin Rasha da Yamma, duk da cewa Armeniya wani ɓangare ne na Rasha Farashin CSTO kawancen soja. Rasha ta kuduri aniyar kare Armeniya idan Azabaijan ko Turkiya suka kawo mata hari, amma ta bayyana karara cewa wannan alwashin bai wuce Nagorno-Karabakh ba. Iran kuma tana da kusanci da Armenia fiye da Azerbaijan, amma yanzu tana da girma Yawan Azeri sun fito kan tituna don tallafawa Azerbaijan tare da nuna adawa da nuna wariya ga gwamnatinsu ga Armeniya.
Dangane da rawar da Amurka ke amfani da ita na lalatawa da lalatawa a cikin Gabas ta Tsakiya mafi girma, ya kamata Amurkawa su yi hankali da duk wani ƙoƙari na Amurka don yin amfani da wannan rikice-rikicen don biyan bukatun Amurka. Hakan na iya haɗawa da rura wutar rikici don lalata amincin Armenia game da ƙawancen da ke tsakaninta da Rasha, don jawo Armenia zuwa cikin Yammacin Turai, mai son NATO. Ko kuma Amurka na iya tsananta da amfani da tashin hankali a cikin al'ummar Azeri ta Iran a matsayin ɓangare na “matsakaicin matsin lamba”Kamfe kan Iran.
A duk wata shawarar da Amurka za ta yi amfani da ita ko shirya amfani da wannan rikici don cimma burinta, ya kamata Amurkawa su tuna da mutanen Armenia da Azerbaijan wadanda rayukansu ke rayuwa rasa ko lalace kowace rana da wannan yaƙin ke ci gaba, kuma ya kamata ta la'anci da hamayya da duk wani ƙoƙari na tsawaita ko ƙara baƙin ciki da wahala don fa'idodin geopolitical na Amurka.
Madadin haka ya kamata Amurka ta ba da cikakken haɗin kai tare da ƙawayenta a cikin OSCE's Minsk Group don tallafawa tsagaita wuta da dorewar sulhu mai dorewa wanda zai mutunta haƙƙin ɗan adam da ƙudurin kai na dukkan jama'ar Armenia da Azerbaijan.
Nicolas JS Davies ɗan jarida ne mai zaman kansa, mai bincike ne na CODEPINK kuma marubucin Blood On Our Hands: Ƙasar Amirka da Rushewar Iraq.
