Hoto: Gajimare da bama-bamai na Juan Hein
Alison Broinowski, Arena Quarterly no. 8, Disamba 2, 2021
AUKUS ta tabbatar da cewa makomar Ostiraliya za ta kasance da alaka da dumamar yanayi
AUKUS yana da wuyar haɗiye kamar yadda ƙaƙƙarfan ƙa'idarsa ke da wuyar furtawa. Hakanan yana da sauƙin ba'a. Yana mai da tsoffin abokai abokan gaba. Ya yi wani babban abin kallo na Ostiraliya a matsayin ƙasa mara amana, mai juyowa, ƙasa mai faɗa. Duk da haka Muhimmin Bincike ya gano cewa kashi 81 cikin ɗari na 'yan Australiya suna tunanin yana da kyau ga tsaron mu.1 A bayyane yake, Scott Morrison bai damu ba idan wannan yarjejeniya ta kasance cikin haɗari da kuma talauta mu da kuma haifar da mummunan yaƙi, muddin aka sake zabar gwamnatinsa.
Ba da jimawa ba aka sanar da sabon Anglo-autarky a tsakiyar watan Satumba kamar yadda kururuwar bacin rai ke sake barkewa a duniya. Ba daga Faransa kawai ba, ƙasar da ta fi gigita da baƙin ciki da ita, amma daga Jamus, wanda ke ba da kayan aikin ƙarƙashin kwangilar jirgin ruwa na Faransa da aka watsar. ramuwar gayya daga EU gabaɗaya, wanda ke samun riba mai yawa daga haɗin gwiwar tsakanin nahiyoyi da Sin, yana lalata shawarwarin ciniki cikin 'yanci da Australia. Shugaba Macron ya bukaci kungiyar EU da ta bunkasa karfin soji mai cin gashin kanta.
Australia, a cewar China Lokacin Duniya, ta ' mayar da kanta maƙiyin China'. Kakakin ma'aikatar harkokin wajen birnin Beijing ya yi gargadin sakamako uku masu yiwuwa daga AUKUS: sabon yakin cacar baki, tseren makamai na yanki da yaduwar makaman nukiliya.2 Indiya, wacce ke son jiragen ruwanta na nukiliya, ta gano wariyar launin fata na Anglo, duk da cewa ta shiga Quad; Japan ta ba da shawarar samun ikon mallakar makaman nukiliya, ta keta ka'idojinta na yaƙi da makaman nukiliya; Koriya ta Kudu ta damu; kuma New Zealand, kamar koyaushe, tana da kyawawan dalilai na yin hukunci.
Kiribati, wanda aka yi amfani da shi don gwaje-gwajen nukiliya na Biritaniya a cikin 1950s da 60s, ya ɓata AUKUS ma. Kasashen ASEAN, da suka hada kai wajen son kawar da babbar hamayya daga kudu maso gabashin Asiya, ba su cika sha'awar sanya AUKUS a kansu ba. Sai dai Philippines, wadda ministan harkokin wajenta ke son ja da baya kan kasar Sin. Babu ɗayansu da ke son rashin tuntuɓar su tukuna.
Amma me za a fada? Wasu bayanan kafofin watsa labarai biyu na ministocin sun sanar da haɓaka haɗin gwiwar tsaro na bangarorin uku, yarjejeniya tsakanin 'yan'uwa'.3 Sanarwar hadin gwiwa daga tattaunawar AUSMIN ta dade kan dabi'un da aka raba, tsarin tushen dokokin kasa da kasa4 da kuma 'gado na zaman lafiya da wadata wanda haɗin gwiwarmu ya ba da gudummawa' ga yankin, amma a takaice maƙasudin tsakiyar AUKUS da Quad: mai ɗauke da Sin.5
Bayan wani abu da aka bayyana a cikin sanarwar game da abin da kowace jam’iyya za ta samu a cikin tsarin, ko kuma abin da kowacce za ta bayar a cikinta. Madadin haka, sun yi alƙawarin glibly 'abokin haɗin gwiwa na har abada', 'madaidaicin daidaita manufofin yanki da ayyuka' da 'ƙarin haɗewar masana'antar soji da tsaro'. Majalisar ƙaramar hukuma za ta yi tsammanin ƙarancin gudanarwa-magana da ƙarin ƙayyadaddun ƙayyadaddun aikace-aikacen haɓaka masana'antar abincin dabbobi.
An binne shi dalla-dalla dalla-dalla, shaidan ya haɗa da Bayanin Niyya akan Haɗin kai na Dabarun Haɗin kai da aiwatarwa. Wannan yana ba da damar 'inganta' haɗin gwiwar iska da teku, ba tare da ambaton '' jigilar jiragen sama na Amurka ba. na kowane iri a Ostiraliya da horar da jirgin sama da ya dace da atisayensa' [na jaddadawa], da haɓaka '' dabaru da ƙarfin dorewa na saman Amurka da tasoshin ruwa a cikin Ostiraliya'. Fassara, wannan yana nufin Amurka masu jefa bama-bamai na nukiliya, makamai masu linzami, jiragen ruwa na yaki da na karkashin ruwa masu amfani da tashoshin jiragen ruwa da sansanonin ƙasa na Ostiraliya yadda ya kamata. Ƙarin ma'aikatan Amurka a Darwin yana nufin ƙarin halayen da ba su dace ba na irin mutanen Okinawa da Philippines sun jimre shekaru da yawa. Za a shigo da man Nukiliya daga Amurka da Birtaniya, sai dai idan an yi shiru ana nufin inganta sinadarin Uranium na Australiya zuwa makaman da kuma kafa masana'antar nukiliya a Ostiraliya, wadanda a halin yanzu duk haramun ne.
Da kyar kafofin watsa labaru tare da zane-zane da yawa, Morrison ya sanya yawancin Ostiraliya samun jiragen ruwa guda takwas masu amfani da makamashin nukiliya maimakon na Faransanci goma sha biyu, kodayake ba a san ainihin adadin, mafi girman farashi da kwanan watan bayarwa ba. Kiyasin ya haura dala biliyan 100, a cikin shekaru talatin.6 Ba a ce komai ba game da miliyoyin da za a kashe don soke aikin na Faransa. Kuma akwai wata muguwar sanarwa ta haɗin gwiwa game da 'Haɗin kai kan yaƙi da ɓarna', wanda ke nuna ma fi sa ido da sa ido kan hanyoyin sadarwar mu fiye da yadda dokoki casa'in da ɗaya suka amince da su a majalisar dokokin Ostiraliya tun 2001.
Kamar yadda aka saba, ana raba sauran makaman a cikin sabis na Australiya guda uku, kamar dai kowannensu ya ƙaddamar da jerin buƙatun don haɓaka tseren makamai. Duk waɗannan ba a biya su ba, ba a yi la'akari da su ba kuma ba a cika su ba. Yayin da sojojin ruwa na Australiya ke jira na shekaru da yawa na jiragen ruwa marasa matuka, wadanda ba a gina su ba, za su karbi makamai masu linzami na Tomahawk. Sojojin saman Australiya suna samun makami mai linzami daga sama zuwa sama da dogon zango, da makami mai linzami na gaba. Ga Sojoji za a sami makamai masu linzami masu shiryarwa na 'daidai-kai'. Adelaide za ta sami ƙarin masana'antun kera makamai da gwamnati ke ba da tallafin, da jiragen ruwa na nukiliya a tashar ruwanta.
Don waɗannan sabbin hanyoyin kashe maƙwabtanmu, mai siye shine Ostiraliya, kuma masu siyarwa biyu ne Amurka da Ingila. Ba mamaki Shugaba Biden da Firayim Minista Johnson suna son wannan tsarin. Ƙididdiga sun bambanta game da ribar da Birtaniyya za ta iya tsammani, amma yanzu mun fahimci dalilin da yasa ƙofar Johnson ta yi karo da Morrison na ganawa da Biden a watan Yuni a taron Cornwall G7. Ostiraliya ta biya kuɗin bikinsu, kuma tabbas sun tafi gida suna dariya, ta banki.
Idan 'USUKA' 'yan Australiya sun buga wa masu shayarwa, shin gwamnatinmu ma an yi wa mai shan nono wasa? Ko kuwa wannan shi ne babban ginshiƙin da ƙungiyar gamayya ke ginawa tsawon shekaru?
Jagoranci
Gajartar dalla-dalla ba yana nufin babu ko ɗaya ba, ko kuma an haɗa AUKUS cikin gaggawa- akasin haka. Ka'idar dabarun Amurka da aka yi watsi da ita a baya-bayan nan ta nuna cewa, tun daga shekarar 2018, dabarun da Amurka ke da shi, ita ce tsara ikonta na teku a kan kasar Sin, a fafatawar neman mallakar ruwa da yankunan tattalin arzikin kasar Sin. Tattaunawa tare da Ostiraliya sun fara ne tun farkon 2019, lokacin da Biden ya fito fili ya sauya kiyayyarsa daga Gabas ta Tsakiya zuwa China. Watakila Cibiyar Siyasar Tsaro ta Ostiraliya da Amurka ke ba da kuɗaɗen ta kasance a wurin wannan tunanin. Ladar cibiyar ita ce samun gidaje a Washington, wanda ya dace da ofishin reshe na Amurka.
To kafin sanarwar AUKUS na Satumbar 2021, an aza harsashin ginin. A cikin 2018, Ostiraliya ta wajabta wa Amurka ta hanyar amincewa da dakatar da Huawei tare da yin watsi da shirin Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) na kasar Sin, dukkansu sun saba wa Washington. Duk da haka duka biyun sun ba da dama idan Canberra ta zaɓi don bukatun Australiya abin da take buƙata daga China: layin dogo na zamani, intanet mai sauri, da masana'antar harhada magunguna ta Ostiraliya, alal misali. Madadin haka, kafofin watsa labarai na Murdoch sun yi zane mai ban dariya ba tare da ɓata lokaci ba Firayim Ministan Victoria Daniel Andrews, wanda ya yi rajista don BRI, a matsayin ɗan gurguzu mai sanye da jajayen tauraro. Gwamnati ta kwafi dokar Amurka ta McCarthyist 'wakilan tasiri na ketare' kuma ta nuna aljanu ga 'yan Australiya da ke da alaka da China, har ma da hamshakin attajirin dan kasar Ostireliya dan kasar China wanda ya samu gudummawar karimci har zuwa 2017.7
A wata muhimmiyar ziyara a Sydney a watan Agustan 2019, Farfesa John Mearsheimer ya lura da yadda 'Ostiraliya ta yarda da komai' cikin shiri.8 Jami'in sojan ya juya ilimi ya yi gargadin cewa Amurka ba ta da juriya ga gasar takwarorinsu. Wasu daga cikin masu sauraronsa sun yi dariya a firgice, kamar wasa ya ke cewa Australiya ba ta da wani zabi illa ta goyi bayan Amurka, kuma za a hukunta ta idan ta yi kuskuren zabi China.
Yayin da COVID-19 ke yaduwa, Ministar Harkokin Wajen Amurka Marise Payne a watan Afrilun 2020 ta wajabta wa masu masaukinta na Amurka ta hanyar yin kira mai tsokana don "binciken kasa da kasa mai zaman kansa" kan asalin cutar, wanda China ta mayar da martani ta hanyar hana shigo da kayayyaki daga Ostiraliya. Kayayyakin Amurka da sauri sun maye gurbin na Ostiraliya a cikin kasuwar Sinawa mai riba. Idan gwamnatin Biden ta so ta lalata China yayin da Ostiraliya ta dauki zafi kuma Amurka ta yi iska, tabbas ta yi aiki.
Anglo-autarky sun yi layi don fuskantar duniya. Da farko, Shugaba Biden ya maye gurbin Trump na 'Make America Great Again' da taken kansa, 'Amurka ta Dawo'. Hasali ma, baya ga kasancewarsa ci gaba a kan sauyin yanayi, ya mayar da kasar Amurka baya, tare da farfado da burin Amurka bayan yakin duniya na biyu na daukar tasirin 'Cin gurguzu'. Amurka ta Biden ba za ta amince da shan kaye ba, ba za ta bar yakin da take yi ba ko kuma ta raba jagorancin duniya da China. Na biyu, Biritaniya, bayan ta rabu da EU, kuma tana son maido da kason da take da shi a baya, za ta yi musayar fasahohi, leken asiri da dabarun farfaganda a cikin tekun Atlantika, tare da tura jiragen ruwa na ruwa zuwa tekun gabashin Asiya a karon farko tun bayan ficewarsu daga gabashin Suez. Kuma na uku mai nisa, Ostiraliya za ta wajabta su duka ta hanyar yin aiki tare da wannan duka, da yin makiyi ga babbar abokiyar ciniki, mantawa game da al'adu da yawa da cudanya da Asiya, da shirin yin yaki da Sin ba bisa ka'ida ba. Idan wannan yaki ya faru, Ostiraliya za ta zama abin koyi a kasar Sin, kuma ko kasashen Atlantika sun shiga tsakani ko a'a, sakamakon zai zama fatala ko kuma halaka.
Abubuwa masu duhu
AUKUS shine ƙarshen samfurin jerin abubuwan da ya fi tsayi. Gwamnatocin Amurka da suka ci gaba sun ƙirƙiri sabbin abokan gaba akai-akai, ta hanyar yin amfani da yaudarar ƙarya (kamar lamarin Gulf of Tonkin da Iraki 'Makamai na Halakar Jama'a') don samar da yarda ga yaƙe-yaƙe da suka zaɓa. Idan karni na Amurka, kamar yadda Henry Luce ya sanar, ya fara da yakin duniya na biyu, ya ci gaba da al'adar yakin da aka kafa Amurka. Cibiyar Nazarin Yaki da Zaman Lafiya ta inganta tsarin mulkin Amurka da kawar da juriya gare shi,9 Shirin Marshall Plan na Jamus, da cibiyoyi makamantansu.
Koyaushe suna buƙatar maƙiyi, Amurkawa sun zama ci gaba da ƙwarewa wajen lalata aljanu da ɓarna, ƙirƙira yarda da tallafi don ci gaba da yaƙe-yaƙe, zafi ko sanyi, da ƙirƙirar fasahar sadarwa waɗanda ke isar da farfagandarsu. A ciki, an yi shelar yaƙe-yaƙe a kan wariya, ƙwayoyi, talauci da zubar da ciki, amma ba a kan bindigogi ba. A waje, bayan 1945 sabon abokin gaba ga Amurkawa don yaki shine Kwaminisanci; sannan gasar nukiliya daga Tarayyar Soviet; bayan rushewar Tarayyar Soviet ta zo ta'addanci; sai Iran. Na gaba ita ce kasar Sin.
"Rikici ne kawai - na gaske ko wanda aka sani - yana haifar da canji na gaske," Milton Friedman ya rubuta a cikin littafinsa na 1962 Jari-hujja da 'Yanci. An yi karatu a cikin wannan ƙa'idar, a cikin Satumba 2000 membobi neo-conservative membobi na Project for a New American Century (PNAC) samar. Sake Gina Kariyar Amurka: Dabaru, Sojoji, da Albarkatu Don Sabon Ƙarni. A cikinsa sun ba da shawarar buƙatar 'canjin juyin juya hali', wanda zai buƙaci' wani bala'i mai ban tsoro-kamar sabon Pearl Harbor'. Harin 9/11 akan Cibiyar Ciniki ta Duniya da Pentagon ya kasance irin wannan lamari ne kawai, wanda ya jagoranci Majalisa don zartar da Dokar Patriot da Izinin Amfani da Sojojin Sojoji a kan 'Yan ta'adda, yana ba da damar yaƙe-yaƙe da aka yi har yanzu shekaru ashirin bayan haka, mafi tsawo. a tarihin Amurka. Yaki da ta'addanci ya haifar da koma baya.10
Masu kishin Islama sun nemi duniya ta dauki fansa kan hare-haren da aka kai wa kasashensu da na 'yan uwa musulmi. 'Yan gudun hijira daga Gabas ta Tsakiya sun yi gudun hijira zuwa Turai, inda suka mayar da tashar ruwan Calais ta zama 'daji'. Biritaniya ta zaɓi rashin kyamar baki da kisan aure daga Turai. Shugabannin masu ra'ayin mazan jiya da suka yi fatan mayar da Burtaniya girma sun sake jingina kansu ga Amurka, ciki har da masu ra'ayin mazan jiya, da kuma aljanu ga Rasha. An kafa cibiyoyin daidaitawa a Burtaniya da Amurka don tafiyar da tsarin. Sun hada da Cibiyar Gatestone da John Bolton ke jagoranta, da kuma wata kungiya mai rajin kare manufofin kasashen waje ta Isra'ila (FPI), wacce a fili take neman yin tasiri kan manufofin ketare na Amurka a Gabas ta Tsakiya. An kafa FPI a cikin 2009, a daidai wannan shekarar da Cibiyar Nazarin Jiha (IfS) ta fara a Biritaniya a matsayin 'sadaka ta ilimi', sannan kuma ta soke ta, Integrity Initiative (II), a cikin 2015. Sabon Ilimi, wanda aka kafa kamar IfS a 2015. ya yarda cewa ya gudanar da aikin 'tuta na karya' a zaben 'yan majalisar dattawan Alabama na 2018.11 An narkar da FPI a cikin 2017, kuma IfS da II sun yi shuru bayan bayyanar su a ƙarshen 2018.
A watan Oktoba 2016 wanda ya kafa na II, tsohon jami'in leken asiri Christopher Donnelly, ya gana da Janar Sir Richard Barrons mai ritaya, kuma ya amince da cewa United Kingdom ta kashe £ 7 biliyan a kowace shekara a soja 'domin mu'amala da Rasha da China'.12 Sun ba da shawarar buƙatun wani 'mummunan bala'i' wanda zai haifar da yarjejeniya ta jama'a, suna mai da martani ga kiran Robert Kagan ga PNAC a cikin Satumba 2000 don bala'i na injiniya don haifar da sauyi na juyin juya hali. Ta hanyar kai hari ga Rasha da al'ummomin masu magana da Rashanci tare da saƙon da ke goyon bayan Amurka, Amurka- da Birtaniyya da ke tallafawa IfS za ta 'ƙarfafa tasirin Burtaniya a Arewacin Amurka da Turai bayan Brexit'. Don haka James Ball, a Guardian dan jarida mai alaka da II.13 Donnelly ya kira a
sabon nau'in yaki, sabon rikici, sabon nau'in gasa, wanda komai ya zama makami: bayanai, samar da makamashi, hare-haren yanar gizo wanda kowa ya sani, cin hanci da rashawa da kansa, zuba jari na kudi - duk waɗannan abubuwa sun kasance a yanzu. makamai a cikin rikici na zamani tsakanin jihohi, da kuma tsakanin jahohi da 'yan jihadi kamar Daesh [IS]. Kuma rashin fahimtar juna shi ne batun da ya hada dukkan sauran makaman wannan rikici wanda ya ba su matsayi na uku.14
II an kwafi shi a cikin 2019 ta Bellingcat's Open Information Partnership, wanda ya yi iƙirarin yin rahotannin 'shaida', yayin da suke goyan bayan psy-ops na Amurka da Burtaniya akan Rasha, Iran da sauransu.15 Wanda masanin binciken dan Burtaniya Eliot Higgins ya kafa, Bellingcat yana ba da tashar jama'a ga hukumomin tsaron Birtaniyya da ke son yada nau'ikan abubuwan da suka faru na baya-bayan nan, a Ukraine, Siriya da Salisbury, alal misali.
Aiki a cikin 'yankin launin toka', waɗannan da sauran ƙungiyoyi masu ban sha'awa suna da hukunci: dole ne a ci gaba da yaƙi. Yardar jama'a ga abin da Donald Rumsfeld ya kira 'yaki marar iyaka don zaman lafiya marar iyaka' ya dogara da haifar da tsoro. Menene ya fi ta'addanci? Don haka 'yaƙin ta'addanci' na duniya ƙirƙira ne na hazaka daga waɗanda ke son yaƙin soja. Ba za a taba cewa an ci nasara ko aka yi asara ba. Duk wani lamari na ta'addanci ya tabbatar da cewa har yanzu ya zama dole a yi yaki da shi, kuma yayin da sojojin soja ke kai hari ga 'yan ta'adda kuma 'yan ta'addar suna neman daukar fansa, yawancin masu daukar ma'aikata da kayan aiki suna kwarara zuwa bangarorin biyu. Ya kasance cikakke 'yaki na har abada', wanda shine dalilin da ya sa ya yadu daga Afghanistan zuwa Iraki, daga Libya zuwa Siriya, Arewacin Afrika da kudu maso gabashin Asiya. An ci gaba da kasancewa a Afganistan fiye da kowane yakin Amurka - tun bayan manufar farko, an manta da gano Osama bin Laden da hukunta al-Qaeda saboda harin 9/11 akan Amurka.
Yakin da ake yi da ta'addanci ya bude 'tarkon ta'addanci, wanda Amurka da kawayenta suka fada cikin dole. Yayin da 'yan ta'addar Islama ke da yawa kuma ba su da wadata, duk da cewa sun kashe da raunata dubbai, abokan gabansu na yamma masu rike da makamai sun kashe tiriliyoyin, sun kawo karshen tare da lalata rayukan miliyoyin mutane, suka haifar da karin kiyayya da ta'addanci, ba su cimma komai ba. Sun haɗa da Ostiraliya, kuma har yanzu suna yin ta.
Ja da baya daga Afghanistan, amma ba daga ta'addanci ba
Manyan tura sojoji ba sa farawa ko ƙarewa dare ɗaya, kodayake galibi ana ba da rahoton haka. Shugaba Trump ya gana da shugabancin Taliban a watan Fabrairun 2020 kuma ya ba Amurka 'janye' a watan Mayu 2021, wanda ya baiwa Taliban damar rubuta sharudan nasarar da suka samu. Jim kadan bayan rantsar da shi, shugaba Biden ya yi alkawarin samun dukkanin sojojin Amurka, da kuma ofishin jakadancin, nan da karshen watan Agusta. Ya baiwa Taliban lokaci mai yawa don shiryawa.
Komawar da aka yi daga Afganistan ta tuno da abubuwan da USSR ta samu a 1989 da na Biritaniya a cikin 1842 da 1919. 'Yan Afganistan koyaushe za su iya fi karfin maharansu. Hakazalika, ya kasance wani kwakkwaran masaniyar kwarewar Amurka a Vietnam a cikin 1975, sai dai mutanen Kudancin Vietnam sun yi tsayin daka fiye da yadda takwarorinsu da ke samun goyon bayan Amurka suka yi a Kabul. A Kudancin Vietnam, Amurka ta kashe shugabannin da ba su yi aiki ba; a Afganistan, abokan cinikin Amurka sun gudu da jakunkuna na tsabar kudi.
Harin kunar bakin wake da aka kai a kofar Abbott na filin jirgin saman Kabul da kuma hare-haren da kungiyar ISIS-K ta kai a baya ya kara fadada yakin da ake yi da ta'addanci. Har ila yau Biden ya sake maimaita kalaman na Bush na 'yan banga, yana gargadin 'yan ta'adda, 'Za mu farauto ku, za mu biya ku'. Haka ma Janar Frank McKenzie, shugaban babban kwamandan rundunar, wanda ya umarci Pentagon da ta shirya kai farmaki kan kadarorin ISIS-K 'a lokaci da wurin da muka zaba'. Yayin da duniya ke jira, Leon Panetta, wanda ya kasance Sakataren Tsaro a karkashin Obama a shekarun da ISIS-K ta fara, ya bayyana cewa Amurka 'na iya barin fagen fama amma ba za mu iya barin yakin da ta'addanci ba, wanda har yanzu shi ne na farko. barazana ga kasarmu'. Kuma kakakin yada labaran Pentagon, John Kirby, ya yi ishara da ''barazanar ta'addanci' masu sahihanci' a Kabul, yana mai cewa Amurka a shirye take ta kara kai hare-hare.16 Bai fadi abin da za su yi a kansu ba.
'Yan Republican ma sun yi gaggawar farfado da tsohon harshe. A Majalisa sun bukaci Shugaba Biden ya ci gaba da yakar 'yakin da ta'addanci', da alama ya manta cewa Obama ya ki yin amfani da furcin, kuma Trump ya kyamace shi a matsayin yakin da ya sha kasa. Shugaban marasa rinjaye a majalisar Mitch McConnell, wanda ke cikin tarkon ta'addanci, ya yi kira ga Amurka da ta rubanya kokarinta na yaki da ta'addanci. Ya ce saboda kawai Amurka ta daina yakar 'yan ta'adda, ba za su daina yakar Amurka ba.17
A Ostiraliya, ja da baya daga Kabul ya sake farfado da gargadin da aka sani game da ta'addanci. Tsohon Firayim Minista Kevin Rudd ya yi hasashen cewa Afganistan za ta sake zama mafakar 'yan ta'adda.18 A cewar jami'in Cibiyar Lowy Rodger Shanahan, 'babban abin da kasashen Yamma ke da shi' a Afganistan shi ne ta'addanci, kamar yadda yake da shekaru ashirin da suka gabata.19 Firayim Ministan Jiya John Howard ya gargadi 'yan Australiya, kamar yadda ya yi a 2001, da su kasance a faɗake amma kada su firgita game da 'barazanar ta'addanci', gami da namu yankin. Babu wanda ya ce abin da ya kamata Ostiraliya ta yi game da shi. Babu wanda ya ambata cewa idan har yanzu ta'addanci ya kasance irin wannan barazana bayan shekaru ashirin, muna iya buƙatar wata hanya ta dabam da wadda muke ɗauka tun shekara ta 2001.
Magabatan Biden sun so amma sun kasa kawo karshen yakin har abada na Amurka. Yayin da Biden ya yi ikirarin yabo da yin hakan, ya riga ya shirya abin da zai biyo bayan koma bayan Amurka. Sabon Maƙiyinsa Na ɗaya zai zama 'Cin gurguzu'. Biden ya aike da manyan kwamandojin ruwa zuwa tekun Kudancin China, ya harba jirgin Quad domin ya mamaye kasar Sin a cikin Indo-Pacific, sannan ya umarci wani kwamitin Amurka da ya yi bincike kan asalin kasar Sin na coronavirus, gami da yiwuwar kamuwa da Amurkawa a Wuhan a watan Oktoba. 2019. Abin tsokana, wannan rahoton ya fito a watan Satumba, yana nuna cika shekaru ashirin da harin 'yan ta'adda a ranar 9/11. Amma bai canza komai ba wanda aka riga aka sani game da COVID-19, kuma bai yarda da wani rawar Amurka a ciki ba, kodayake binciken Sharri Markson ya nuna akwai guda ɗaya. 20
Babu wanda ya ambaci cewa, Sin ba ta da wata alaka da 9 ga Satumba, ko kuma cewa Sin ta damu da matsalolinta, ciki har da 'ta'addanci' da kasashen waje suka haifar a tsakanin 'yan Uighurs da masu zanga-zangar Hong Kong. Beijing tana jan hankalin gwamnatoci don shiga cikin shirye-shiryenta na hadin gwiwa a duk tsohon Gabas ta Tsakiya, wanda yanzu ake kira 'Yammacin Asiya'. Kasar Sin dai ta kulla kawance da kungiyar Taliban ta kasar Afghanistan da kuma kasar Iran Ayatollah, sannan kuma kasar Afganistan na bayar da jigilar man fetur da iskar gas daga Tajikistan zuwa kasar Pakistan zuwa tekun Larabawa. Don haka, ko da baya ga Taiwan da tekun kudancin kasar Sin, kasar Sin abokiyar gabar Amurka ce: mai adawa da mulkin Amurka, kuma mai daukar nauyin yaki da ta'addanci da ba a karewa ba. Ya isa yace.
Amurkawa sun yi yaki da 'yakin ta'addanci' a Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan, Libya, Somalia, Syria, Yemen da Philippines, tare da goyon bayan Australia a akalla hudu daga cikin wadannan kasashe. Ayyukan sojan Amurka masu alaka sun faru a Georgia, Cuba, Djibouti, Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Turkey, Niger, Cameroon, Jordan, Lebanon, Haiti, Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mauritaniya, Najeriya da Tunisiya, da kuma kan tekuna da dama.21 Ta'addanci na iya zama hujja don ƙarin yaƙe-yaƙe.
Yaki na gaba
Ban da 'yan kaɗan, kowane shugaban Amurka ne ke da alhakin yaƙi. Yaki shine yadda Amurka a koyaushe take magance rikice-rikice tare da biyan bukatunta na tattalin arziki. Kowace jiha ta Amurka tana da rukunan tsaro na soja-masana'antu-masana'antu waɗanda mutanen gida suka dogara da su don samun aikin yi. Amurka ba ta ci wani gagarumin yaki ba tun 1945, amma hakan bai hana masana'antar yaki samun karin damammaki ba. Akwai wasu sansanoni 750 na Amurka a cikin wasu ƙasashe tamanin, inda Amurkawa ke ba da tsoro da kuma matsa wa gwamnatocin baƙi lamba. Shugabannin da suka bijirewa bukatun Amurka na iya ruguzawa, korarsu ko kuma a kashe su. Ka yi tunanin fushin idan China ko Rasha suka yi haka!
Da kyau kafin AUKUS, ƙwararrun Australiya sun nuna rashin amincewa da haɗin gwiwarmu tare da Amurka, da kuma shirye-shiryenmu marasa tambaya - shaukin, har ma - don yin yaƙi a cikin yaƙe-yaƙe na Amurka waɗanda ba su da alaƙa da kare Ostiraliya. Richard Tanter, Hugh White, Max Suich da sauransu suna ganin Australia ba ta da 'yancin kai da ya rage a manufofin ketare ko tsaro.22 Wannan yana nufin idan yaki na gaba ya kasance da China, kan Taiwan, tekun Kudu ko Gabashin China, ko wani abin da aka shirya, Australiya za ta shiga hannu, za ta zama babbar manufa, kuma za ta yi rashin nasara a yakin. China ba Taliban ba ce.
Amma Amurka a kodayaushe tana son hadin gwiwa, kamar AUKUS. Hanya daya tilo da Australiya za ta bi, idan Morrison sau daya ya sanya rayuwar al'ummar kasar gaba da burinsa na zabe, shi ne ya shaida wa Amurka tun da wuri cewa Australia ba za ta shiga cikin kawayenta a irin wannan rikici ba.
1 Katharine Murphy, 'Ra'ayin Mahimmanci: Mafi yawan 'yan Australiya sun dawo da yarjejeniyar Aukus Submarine, amma suna tsoron zai haifar da tashin hankali da China', The Guardian, 28 Satumba 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/28/essential-poll-majority-of-australians-back-aukus-submarine-pact-but-fear-it-will -kumburi-tashin hankali-da-china
2 http://www.news.cn/English/2021-09/29/c_1310215827.htm
3 Scott Morrison da Boris Johnson, wanda aka nakalto a cikin Anthony Galloway, 'An bukaci Ostiraliya ta zurfafa hadin gwiwar kudu maso gabashin Asiya', The Sydney Morning Herald, Oktoba 8, 2021, shafi 15.
4 Dubi Clinton Fernandes, 'Tsarin Dokokin Kasa da Kasa', Arena a'a. 7 ga Nuwamba, 2021.
5 Bayanin Haɗin gwiwa Ostiraliya da Tuntuɓar Ministocin Amurka (AUSMIN) 2021, Sashen Harkokin Waje da Kasuwanci,
https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/united-states-of-america/ausmin/joint-statement-australia-us-ministerial-consultations-ausmin-2021, Ma'aikatar Harkokin Wajen Amurka, https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-australia-u-s-ministerial-consultations-ausmin-2021/; Malcolm Fraser, 'Dangandar Australiya da Amurka a cikin "ƙarni na Asiya", ARena Magazine a'a. 120 ga Nuwamba, 2012.
6 Richard Tanter, ƙaddamarwa ga Binciken Jama'a na Sadarwar Sadarwar Ostiraliya mai zaman kanta a cikin Kuɗin Yaƙi, 2021.
7 Dubi jerin labaran 'Rawar Yaki: Reversal' na Max Suich a cikin Nazarin Kasuwancin Australiya: 'Yadda Ostiraliya Ta Yi Mummuna Fito Kan China', , 17 ga Mayu 2021; 'Harkokin Sinawa: Me Muke Tunani?', 18 ga Mayu 2021; 'Haɗin gwiwar Amurka da Ostiraliya kan Sin ya nuna yana da kyau a tafi da wuri, a yi ƙarfi', 19 ga Mayu 2021.
8 Alison Broinowski, 'Australia ta Amince da Komai', Lu'u -lu'u da Fushi, 14 ga Agusta, 2019, https://johnmenadue.com/alison-broinowski-australia-agrees-to-everything/
9 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_and_Peace_Studies
10 Chalms Johnson, Blowback: Kudin Kuɗi da Ƙari na Amurka, New York: Littattafan Owl, 2001.
11 https://www.newknowledge.com/about-us/; David McIlwain, 'Ido Biyu Mataki na Biyu', AmericanHerald Tribune, Janairu 11, 2019,
12 Robert Stevens, 'Initiative Initiative Initiative Initiative Heavy Shiga A cikin Al'amarin Skripal', Duniyar Socialist Yanar Gizo, 7 Janairu 2019,
13 James Ball, 'Lokacin da Ƙungiyoyin Kyauta suka Kwafi Dabarun Watsa Labarun Rasha, Akwai Nasara Daya Kadai', The Guardian, Janairu 10, 2019, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jan/09/free-societies-russia-misinformation-integrity-initiative#comment-124442900
14 YouTube, 'Chris Donnelly Yayi Magana akan Rarrabawa, don Cibiyar Nazarin Jiha', kwafin Tony Kevin, 4 ga Janairu, 2019.
15 Kit Klarenberg, 'Initiative Initiative in Hiding? Whitehall Ya Kaddamar da Sirrin Turai "Kamfanin Rarraba Bayanai"', Sputnik International, 4 Yuli 2019, https://sputniknews.com/20190704/open-information-partnership-integrity-initiative-1076147867.html; Max Blumenthal, 'Reuters, BBC, da Bellingcat sun shiga cikin Shirye-shiryen da Ofishin Harkokin Waje na Burtaniya ke ba da tallafi don "Raunana Rasha," Bayanan Bayanan Leaked', A Greyzone, Fabrairu 20, 2021, https://thegrayzone.com/2021/02/20/reuters-bbc-uk-foreign-office-russian-media/.
Duba Eliot Higgins, Mu ne Bellingcat: Hukumar Leken Asiri don Mutane, London: Bugawa na Bloomsbury, 2021.
16 Joan E. Greve, "Wani harin ta'addanci a Kabul mai yuwuwa," in ji Fadar White House - Kamar yadda ya faru', The Guardian, 28 ga Agusta, 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2021/aug/27/us-politics-live-joe-biden-afghanistan-democrats-republicans-latest-news?page=with:block-6128fad88f08b30431f83e80
17 Greve, ''Wani Harin Ta'addanci''.
18 Kevin Rudd, a cikin David Crowe, 'Al'ummar "An Shirya Mafi Kyau" Don Hare-hare', The Sydney Morning Herald, 4–5 Satumba 2021, shafi 1, 6.
19 Rodger Shanahan, 'Tasirin Tsaron Yamma Mai Nisa Daga Matsala', A Australia, Satumba 3, 2021, shafi 9.
20 Sharri Markson, Me ya faru da gaske a Wuhan?, Melbourne: HarperCollins, 2021.
21 David Swanson, 'Abin da Yaƙin Ta'addanci Ya Yi Mana Ciki Har Zuwa Yanzu', Bari muyi kokarin dimokra] iyya, 30 ga Agusta, 2021, https://davidswanson.org/what-the-war-of-terror-has-cost-us-so-far/
22 Richard Tanter, mika wuya ga Karamin Kwamitin Tsaro, Kwamitin Tsare-tsare kan Harkokin Waje, Tsaro da Ciniki, bincike kan fa'idodi da kasada na Yarjejeniyar Tsaro ta Australiya Bipartisan, a matsayin tushen tsarawa, da kuma ba da kuɗaɗen, damar Tsaron Australiya, 2 Nuwamba 2017; Richard Tanter, 'Bad, Bad, BADA (aka Bipartisan Australian Defence Agreement)', Lu'u-lu'u & Haushi, Maris 1, 2018, https://johnmenadue.com/richard-tanter-bad-bad-bada-aka-bipartisan-australian-defence-agreement/.
