Alison Broinowski, Arena, Yuli 7, 2022
Yakin da aka yi a Ukraine bai cimma kome ba kuma ba shi da kyau ga kowa. Waɗanda ke da alhakin mamayewar su ne shugabannin Rasha da Amurka waɗanda suka bari hakan ta faru: Shugaba Putin wanda ya ba da umarnin "aiki na musamman na soji" a watan Fabrairu, da Shugaba Biden da magabata waɗanda suka ingiza shi sosai. Tun daga shekara ta 2014, Ukraine ta kasance turmin da Amurka ke neman samun rinjaye da Rasha. Nasarar Soviet da Amurka a yakin duniya na biyu, abokan gaba amma makiya tun 1947, dukansu suna son al'ummominsu su zama 'babban sake'. Da yake sanya kansu sama da dokokin kasa da kasa, shugabannin Amurka da na Rasha sun sanya 'yan Ukrain su zama tururuwa, an tattake su yayin da giwaye ke fada.
Yaƙi zuwa Ukrainian na ƙarshe?
Aikin soji na musamman na Rasha wanda aka kaddamar a ranar 24 ga Fabrairun 2022, nan da nan ya rikide zuwa mamayewa, tare da tsadar gaske daga bangarorin biyu. Maimakon ya dau kwanaki uku ko hudu a killace shi a Donbas, sai ya zama yakin da ake gwabzawa a wani waje. Amma ana iya kauce masa. A cikin yerjejeniyar Minsk a 2014 da 2015, an ba da shawarar yin sulhu don kawo karshen rikici a Donbas, kuma a tattaunawar zaman lafiya da aka yi a Istanbul a karshen Maris 2022 Rasha ta amince da janye sojojinta daga Kyiv da sauran biranen. A cikin wannan shawara, Ukraine za ta kasance tsaka-tsaki, ba ta nukiliya ba kuma mai zaman kanta, tare da tabbacin duniya na wannan matsayi. Ba za a sami kasancewar sojojin kasashen waje a Ukraine ba, kuma za a yi wa kundin tsarin mulkin Ukraine kwaskwarima don ba da damar cin gashin kai ga Donetsk da Luhansk. Crimea za ta kasance mai zaman kanta ta dindindin daga Ukraine. 'Yanci don shiga EU, Ukraine za ta yi alkawarin ba za ta taba shiga NATO ba.
Amma kawo karshen yakin ba shine abin da Shugaba Biden yake so ba: Amurka da kawayenta na NATO, in ji shi, za su ci gaba da tallafawa Ukraine.ba kawai wata mai zuwa, wata mai zuwa ba, amma na sauran wannan shekara gaba ɗaya'. Kuma a shekara mai zuwa ma, zai zama kamar, idan wannan shine abin da canjin mulki a Rasha ya ɗauka. Biden ba ya so yaki mai fadi amma wanda ya fi tsayi, wanda zai dore har sai an hambarar da Putin. A ciki Maris 2022 Ya gaya wa taron kolin NATO, EU da G7 da su kara kaimi don dogon yaki a gaba.[1]
"Yakin wakili ne da Rasha, ko mun ce haka ko a'a", Leon Panetta shigar da shi a cikin Maris 2022. Daraktan CIA na Obama kuma daga baya sakataren tsaro ya bukaci a kara ba da taimakon sojan Amurka ga Ukraine don yin bukatar Amurka. Ya kara da cewa, "Diflomasiyya ba ta zuwa ko'ina sai dai idan muna da karfin gwiwa, sai dai idan 'yan Ukrain suna da damar yin amfani da su, kuma hanyar da za ku samu shine ta hanyar, a gaskiya, ku shiga kuna kashe Rashawa. Abin da 'yan Ukrainians' - ba Amurkawa ba - 'dole su yi'.
Mummunan wahalhalun da aka yiwa mutane a yankuna da dama na Ukraine, Biden da shugaba Zelensky sun kira kisan kare dangi. Ko wannan kalmar ta kasance daidai ko a'a, mamayewa laifi ne na yaki, kamar yadda zaluncin soja yake.[2] Amma idan yaki ta hanyar wakili yana gudana, ya kamata a yi la'akari da zargi a hankali-labaran yana da yawa. Haɗin gwiwar Amurka dai na da laifuka biyu a lokacin yakin Iraqi. Dangane da wancan yakin na ta’addancin da aka yi a baya, duk da binciken da kotun hukunta manyan laifuka ta duniya ke yi a halin yanzu, duk wani tuhuma da ake yi wa shugabannin Amurka, Rasha ko Ukraine ba zai yi nasara ba, tunda babu wanda ya amince da yarjejeniyar Rome, don haka babu daya daga cikinsu da ya amince da hukuncin kotun. hukumci.[3]
Sabuwar hanyar yaki
A gefe guda, yakin yana da alama na al'ada: Rashawa da Ukrainians suna tono ramuka suna fada da bindigogi, bama-bamai, makamai masu linzami da tankuna. Mun karanta labarin sojojin Yukren suna amfani da jirage marasa matuki na sha'awar sha'awa da kekuna quad, da kuma kama janar-janar na Rasha da bindigogin maharba. A daya hannun kuma, Amurka da kawayenta na baiwa kasar Ukraine makamai na zamani, da bayanan sirri da kuma karfin gudanar da ayyukan intanet. Rasha na fuskantar abokan cinikin Amurka a Ukraine, amma a yanzu yana yaƙi da su da hannu ɗaya a bayansa—wanda zai iya harba makamin nukiliya.
Makamai masu guba da na halitta suma suna cikin haduwa. Amma wane bangare zai iya amfani da su? Tun aƙalla 2005 Amurka da Ukraine sun kasance hada kai kan binciken makami mai guba, tare da wasu sha'awar kasuwanci a halin yanzu an tabbatar da cewa yana da hannu hade da Hunter Biden. Tun kafin kai wa Rasha hari, shugaba Biden ya yi gargadin cewa watakila Moscow na shirin yin amfani da makamai masu guba a Ukraine. Wani kanun labarai na NBC News ya yarda da gaskiyar cewa, 'Amurka na amfani da intel don yaƙi da Rasha, koda kuwa intel ɗin ba ta da ƙarfi'.[4] A tsakiyar watan Maris, Victoria Nuland, Mataimakiyar Sakataren Harkokin Wajen Amurka kan Harkokin Siyasa, kuma mai goyon bayan juyin mulkin Maidan na 2014, ga gwamnatin Azarov da ke samun goyon bayan Rasha. lura da cewa 'Ukraine tana da wuraren binciken halittu' kuma ta bayyana damuwar Amurka cewa 'kayan bincike' na iya fadawa hannun Rasha. Me wadancan kayan ne, ba ta ce ba.
Dukansu Rasha da China sun koka da Amurka a cikin 2021 game da dakunan gwaje-gwajen sinadarai da nazarin halittu da Amurka ke bayarwa a jihohin da ke kan iyaka da Rasha. Tun daga akalla 2015, lokacin da Obama ya haramta irin wannan bincike, Amurka ta kafa cibiyoyin makamai masu guba a cikin tsoffin jihohin Soviet da ke kusa da iyakokin Rasha da China, ciki har da Georgia, inda aka ba da rahoto a cikin 2018 ya yi sanadiyar mutuwar mutane saba'in. Duk da haka, idan aka yi amfani da makamai masu guba a Ukraine, Rasha ce za ta kasance a cikin laifin. Sakatare Janar na NATO Jens Stoltenberg gargadi da wuri cewa amfani da makamai masu guba ko na halitta da Rasha ke amfani da shi zai 'sauyi yanayin rikicin' daga tushe. A farkon Afrilu, Zelensky ya ce yana jin tsoron cewa Rasha za ta yi amfani da makamai masu guba, yayin da kamfanin dillancin labarai na Reuters ya ambato 'rahotanni da ba a tabbatar ba' a cikin kafofin watsa labaru na Ukraine cewa an jefar da jami'an sinadarai a Mariupol daga wani jirgi maras matuki - tushen su shine. Azov Brigade mai tsattsauran ra'ayi na Ukraine. A bayyane yake an yi wani shirin kafofin watsa labarai na taurin ra'ayi kafin gaskiya.
Yakin bayanin
Mun gani kuma mun ji kadan daga cikin abubuwan da ke faruwa a yakin Ukraine. Yanzu, kyamarar iPhone duka dukiya ce da makami, kamar yadda ake amfani da hoton dijital. 'Deepfakes' na iya sa mutum a kan allo ya zama kamar yana faɗin abubuwan da ba su da shi. Bayan Zelensky ya kasance gani da alama yana bada umarnin mika wuya, da sauri aka fallasa zamba. Amma shin Rashawa sun yi haka ne don gayyatar mika wuya, ko kuwa 'yan Ukrain sun yi amfani da shi don fallasa dabarun Rasha? Wanene ya san abin da ke gaskiya?
A cikin wannan sabon yaki, gwamnatoci suna fada don sarrafa labarin. Rasha ta rufe Instagram; China ta haramta Google. Tsohon Ministan Sadarwa na Australiya Paul Fletcher ya gaya wa dandamalin kafofin watsa labarun da su toshe duk abubuwan da ke cikin kafofin yada labaran gwamnatin Rasha. Amurka ta rufe RA, sabis na labarai na Moscow na Ingilishi, kuma Twitter (pre-Musk) cikin biyayya ya soke asusun 'yan jarida masu zaman kansu. YouTube yana goge bidiyon da ke jayayya game da laifukan yaƙi na Rasha a Bucha wanda Maxar ya nuna. Amma lura cewa YouTube mallakin Google ne, a Dan kwangilar Pentagon da ke aiki tare da hukumomin leken asirin Amurka, kuma Maxar ya mallaki Google Earth, wanda hotuna daga Ukraine suna shakka. RA, TASS da Al-Jazeera sun ba da rahoton ayyukan sojojin Azov brigades, yayin da CNN da BBC suka nuna sojojin Chechen da kuma rukunin Wagner na sojojin haya na Rasha suna aiki a Ukraine. Gyaran rahotanni marasa inganci kaɗan ne. A kanun labarai in The Sydney Morning Herald A ranar 13 ga Afrilu, 2022 karanta, 'Labarin karya' na Rasha karya ne, in ji kwararrun masu aikata laifukan yakin Australiya.
A ranar 24 ga Maris, 2022, tawagogi 141 a zauren Majalisar Dinkin Duniya, sun kada kuri'ar amincewa da wani kuduri na dorawa Rasha alhakin rikicin bil adama da kuma yin kira da a tsagaita wuta. Kusan dukkan mambobin G20 sun kada kuri'ar amincewa, wanda ke nuna sharhin kafafen yada labarai da ra'ayin jama'a a kasashensu. Tawagogi biyar ne suka kada kuri'ar kin amincewa da shi, sannan talatin da takwas suka ki kada kuri'a, ciki har da China, Indiya, Indonesiya da dukkan sauran kasashen ASEAN in ban da Singapore. Babu wata kasa musulmi da ta goyi bayan kudurin; haka kuma Isra’ila ba ta yi ba, inda ba za a iya mantawa da kisan kiyashin da sojojin Jamus suka yi wa Yahudawa kusan 34,000 a Babi Yar kusa da Kyiv a watan Satumban 1941 ba. Bayan da Rasha ta sha wahala a yakin duniya na biyu, Isra'ila ta ki amincewa da daukar nauyin kudirin Amurka a kwamitin sulhu na Majalisar Dinkin Duniya a ranar 25 ga Fabrairun 2022, wanda ya gaza.
Tun bayan mamayar Iraki a shekara ta 2003, ra'ayoyin duniya ba su da tushe balle makama. Ba tun lokacin yakin cacar-baki ba ne kasashe da yawa ke adawa da Rasha. A karshen watan Maris, an mayar da hankali kan Bucha da ke arewacin Kyiv, inda rahotanni masu ban tsoro na fararen hula da aka yi wa kisan gilla suka nuna cewa Rashawa, in ba kisan kiyashi ba ne, akalla ’yan dabbanci ne. Nan da nan aka fara bayyanuwa a kafafen sada zumunta, wasu da sauri aka rufe. Wasu abubuwa masu ban mamaki sun faru, amma ta yaya za mu tabbata cewa wasu ba a shirya su ba? Hotunan da aka nuna akai-akai na kayan wasan yara masu kayatarwa kwance da kyau a saman barnar da ake yi wa wadanda suka saba da ayyukan White Helmets da Turawa ke yi a Siriya. A Mariupol, an kai harin bam a gidan wasan kwaikwayo da fararen hula ke fakewa, kuma an lalata wani asibitin haihuwa. An ce an harba makamai masu linzami a tashar jirgin kasa a Kramatorsk inda jama'a ke kokarin tserewa. Duk da cewa kafofin yada labarai na yammacin duniya sun amince da rahotannin Ukraine ba tare da kakkautawa ba, suna zargin Rasha da kai wadannan hare-hare, wasu ‘yan jarida masu zaman kansu sun haifar da shakku sosai. Wasu sun yi iƙirari Harin bam din gidan wasan kwaikwayo wani lamari ne na tuta na karya na Ukrainian kuma an kori asibitin kuma an mamaye shi da rundunar Azov Brigade kafin Rasha ta kai hari, da kuma cewa makami mai linzami guda biyu a Kramatorsk tabbas 'yan Ukrain ne, da aka harba daga yankin Ukraine.
Ga Moscow, yakin bayanai yana da kyau kamar yadda aka rasa. Labaran Talabijin na matakin jikewa da sharhin kafofin watsa labarai sun yi galaba akan waɗannan zukata da tunanin ƙasashen yamma waɗanda ke shakka ko adawa da shisshigin Amurka a lokacin yaƙin Vietnam da Iraq. Har ila yau, ya kamata mu yi taka tsantsan. Kar ku manta cewa Amurka tana taya kanta murna kan gudanar da aikin sarrafa saƙon ƙwararru, samar da 'nagartaccen farfaganda da nufin tada hankalin jama'a da na hukuma'. Ƙididdiga ta Ƙasar Amirka don Demokraɗiyya tana ba da kuɗin fitattun harshen Ingilishi Kyiv Independent, wanda rahotannin goyon bayan Ukraine-wasu sun samo asali daga Azov Brigade - ana watsa su ba tare da zargi ba ta hanyar irin su CNN, Fox News da SBS. Wani yunƙuri na ƙasa da ƙasa da ba a taɓa yin irinsa ba yana ƙarƙashin jagorancin 'Hukumar Hulɗa da Jama'a' ta Biritaniya, PR-Network, da kuma 'Hukumar leken asirin jama'a', Burtaniya- da Amurka da Bellingcat ke tallafawa. Kasashen da ke haɗin gwiwar sun yi nasara, Daraktan CIA William Burns da gaskiya ya shaida a ranar 3 ga Maris, a cikin 'nunawa ga dukan duniya cewa wannan zalunci ne da aka riga aka tsara ba tare da dalili ba'.
Amma menene manufar Amurka? Farfagandar yaƙi koyaushe tana lalata abokan gaba, amma farfagandar Amurkawa da ke lalata Putin tana jin daɗi sosai daga yaƙe-yaƙe da Amurka ta jagoranta a baya don canjin gwamnati. Biden ya kira Putin a matsayin mai nama wanda ba zai iya ci gaba da mulki ba, duk da cewa sakataren harkokin wajen Amurka Blinken da na NATO Olaf Scholz sun yi gaggawar musanta cewa Amurka da NATO na neman sauyin mulki a Rasha. Da yake magana da sojojin Amurka a Poland a ranar 25 ga Maris, Biden ya sake zamewa, yana mai cewa 'lokacin da kake can [a Ukraine]', yayin da tsohon mashawarcin Democrat Leon Panetta ya ce, "Dole ne mu ci gaba da yakin. Wannan wasan wuta ne. Putin ya fahimci iko; baya fahimtar diflomasiya da gaske…'.
Kafofin yada labaran yammacin duniya na ci gaba da yin Allah wadai da Rasha da Putin, wanda suka shafe sama da shekaru goma suna aljanu. Ga waɗanda ba da jimawa ba suka ƙi 'soke al'adu' da 'gaskiya na ƙarya', sabon ƙawancen kishin ƙasa na iya zama da sauƙi. Tana goyon bayan 'yan Ukrain da ke shan wahala, tana zargin Rasha, kuma tana ba da uzuri ga Amurka da NATO kan kowane nauyi.
Gargadi yana kan rikodin
Ukraine ta zama jamhuriyar Soviet a 1922 kuma, tare da sauran Tarayyar Soviet, sun sha fama da Holodomor, Babban Yunwar da aka yi ta hanyar tilasta tara aikin noma wanda miliyoyin 'yan Ukrain suka mutu, daga 1932 zuwa 1933. Ukraine ta kasance a cikin Tarayyar Soviet. har sai da na biyu ya ruguje a 1991, lokacin da ya zama mai cin gashin kansa kuma ya zama tsaka tsaki. An yi hasashen cewa cin nasara na Amurka da wulakancin Soviet zai haifar da rikici tsakanin shugabannin biyu kamar Biden da Putin.
A cikin 1991, Amurka da Burtaniya sun maimaita abin da jami'an Amurka suka gaya wa Shugaba Gorbachev a 1990: cewa NATO ba za ta fadada 'ba inci ɗaya' zuwa Gabas ba. Amma yana da, shan a cikin jihohin Baltic da Poland-ƙasashe goma sha huɗu a gaba ɗaya. Taƙaitawa da diflomasiyya sun yi aiki a takaice a cikin 1994, lokacin da yarjejeniyar Budapest ta haramta Tarayyar Rasha, Amurka da Burtaniya daga barazanar ko amfani da karfin soja ko tilastawa tattalin arziki a kan Ukraine, Belarus ko Kazakhstan 'sai dai a kare kai ko akasin haka bisa ga umarnin. da Yarjejeniyar Majalisar Dinkin Duniya'. Sakamakon wasu yarjejeniyoyin da aka kulla, tsakanin 1993 da 1996 kasashen uku na tsohuwar Tarayyar Soviet sun yi watsi da makamansu na nukiliya, wani abu da Ukraine za ta iya yin nadama a yanzu kuma Belarus na iya sake komawa.
A cikin 1996 Amurka ta sanar da aniyarta na fadada kungiyar tsaro ta NATO, kuma an baiwa Ukraine da Jojiya damar neman zama memba. A cikin 2003-05, an yi juyin-juya-halin 'launi' na adawa da Rasha a Georgia, Kyrgyzstan da Ukraine, tare da kallon karshen a matsayin. babbar kyauta a sabon yakin cacar baka. Putin ya sha yin zanga-zangar nuna adawa da fadada kungiyar tsaro ta NATO tare da nuna adawa da kasancewar kasar Ukraine mamba, yiwuwar kasashen yammacin duniya sun ci gaba da rayuwa. A cikin 2007, fitattun masana manufofin ketare hamsin sun rubuta wa Shugaba Bill Clinton suna adawa da fadada NATO, suna kiransaa 'kuskuren siyasa na tarihi rabbai'. Daga cikinsu har da George Kennan, jami'in diflomasiyyar Amurka kuma kwararre a Rasha, wanda ya yi Allah wadai da hakan 'mafi munin kuskuren manufofin Amurka a duk lokacin yakin cacar baka'. Duk da haka, a cikin Afrilu 2008 NATO, bisa ga umarnin Shugaba George W. Bush, ta yi kira ga Ukraine da Georgia su shiga cikinta. Sanin cewa shigar da Ukraine cikin mashigin yammacin duniya zai iya yin illa ga Putin a gida da waje, shugaban Ukraine mai goyon bayan Rasha Viktor Yanukovych. ya ƙi sanya hannu kan Yarjejeniyar Ƙungiya tare da EU.
An ci gaba da gargadin. A cikin 2014, Henry Kissinger ya bayar da hujjar cewa samun Ukraine a cikin NATO zai sa ya zama gidan wasan kwaikwayo don fuskantar Gabas-Yamma. Anthony Blinken, sannan a ma'aikatar harkokin wajen Obama. ya shawarci masu sauraro a Berlin da Amurka da ke adawa da Rasha a Ukraine. "Idan kuna wasa a filin soji a Ukraine, kuna wasa ne da karfin Rasha, saboda Rasha tana kusa da makwabta," in ji shi. 'Duk wani abu da muka yi a matsayinmu na kasashe dangane da goyon bayan soji ga Ukraine, to za a yi daidai da shi sannan kuma Rasha ta ninka ta da ninki uku.'
Amma a watan Fabrairun 2014 Amurka goyon bayan juyin mulkin Maidan wanda ya kori Yanukovych. The sabuwar gwamnatin Ukraine haramta harshen Rasha da rayayye girmama Nazis a da da na yanzu, duk da Babi Yar da 1941 Odessa kisan kiyashi na 30,000 mutane, yafi Yahudawa. An kai wa 'yan tawaye a Donetsk da Luhansk da ke samun goyon bayan Rasha a cikin bazarar shekara ta 2014 a wani harin da gwamnatin Kyiv ta yi na yaki da ta'addanci, wanda ke samun goyon bayan masu horar da sojojin Amurka da makaman Amurka. An gudanar da taron jama'a, ko 'ƙaddamarwar raba gardama' da aka gudanar a Crimea, kuma a martanin da kashi 97 cikin 84 na goyon bayan da aka samu daga fitowar kashi XNUMX cikin XNUMX na al'ummar kasar, Rasha ta sake mayar da matsuguni mai ma'ana.
Kokarin kwantar da rikicin da kungiyar tsaro da hadin gwiwa a Turai ta yi ya haifar da yarjejeniyar Minsk guda biyu na 2014 da 2015. Duk da cewa sun yi alkawarin cin gashin kai ga yankin Donbas, amma fada ya ci gaba a can. Zelensky ya kasance mai adawa da 'yan adawar da ke da alaka da Rasha da kuma ga 'yan adawa an zabe shi don aiwatar da yarjejeniyar zaman lafiya. A zagaye na karshe na tattaunawar Minsk, wanda aka kammala makonni biyu kacal kafin mamayewar Rasha a watan Fabrairu, wani 'mahimmin cikas'. The Washington Post ruwaito'Yan adawar Kyiv ne na tattaunawa da 'yan aware masu goyon bayan Rasha'. Kamar yadda tattaunawar ta tsaya, da Post ya yarda, 'ba a san irin matsin lambar da Amurka ke yi wa Ukraine ba don cimma matsaya da Rasha'.
Shugaba Obama ya ja da baya daga ba wa Ukraine makamai a kan Rasha, kuma shi ne Trump, magajinsa, wanda ake zaton Russophile. wanda yayi haka. A cikin Maris 2021, Zelensky ya ba da umarnin sake kwato Crimea kuma ya aika da sojoji zuwa kan iyaka, ta amfani da jirage marasa matuka wadanda suka keta yarjejeniyar Minsk. A watan Agusta, Washington da Kiev sun rattaba hannu kan yarjejeniyar Tsarin Tsaro na Dabarun Amurka-Ukraine, da yin alƙawarin goyon bayan Amurka ga Ukraine don 'tsare iyakokin ƙasar, ci gaba ga haɗin gwiwar NATO, da inganta tsaro a yankin'. An ba da kusancin haɗin gwiwa tsakanin ƙungiyoyin leken asirin tsaron su 'don tallafawa shirin soji da ayyukan tsaro'. Bayan watanni biyu, Amurka-Ukrainian Yarjejeniya Kan Haɗin Kan Dabaru ta bayyana goyon bayan Amurka ga 'burin Ukraine na shiga NATO' da matsayinta a matsayin 'abokan inganta damar samun damar NATO', tare da samar wa Ukraine karuwar jigilar makamai na NATO da kuma ba da haɗin kai.[5]
Amurka na son kawayen NATO a matsayin kasashe masu kakkausar suka ga Rasha, amma ‘ kawancen’ ya gaza kare Ukraine. Hakazalika, Rasha tana son kasashe masu kamewa tsakaninta da NATO. Da yake mai da martani ga yarjejeniyar Amurka da Ukraine, Putin a watan Disamba 2021 ya bayyana cewa Rasha da Ukraine ba 'mutane daya' ba ne. A ranar 17 ga Fabrairu 2022, Biden ya annabta cewa Rasha za ta kai hari ga Ukraine cikin 'yan kwanaki masu zuwa. Harshen Donbas na Yukren ya tsananta. Bayan kwanaki hudu, Putin ya ayyana 'yancin kai na Donbas, wanda Rasha ta samu har sai an amince da matsayin mai cin gashin kansa ko na kai. An fara yakin 'Babban Uban Kasa' bayan kwanaki biyu.
Za a ceci Ukraine?
Tare da daure hannayensu biyu a bayansu, Amurka da kawayenta na NATO suna da makamai da takunkumi kawai da za su bayar. Amma hana shigo da kayayyaki daga Rasha, rufe hanyar da Rasha ke samun hannun jari a ketare, da rufe hanyar da Rasha ke amfani da tsarin musayar bankin SWIFT ba zai ceci Ukraine ba: a rana ta farko bayan mamayewar. Biden ma ya yarda cewa 'Takunkumi ba zai hana' ba, kuma mai magana da yawun Boris Johnson a gaskiya ya bayyana cewa takunkumin 'domin rushe gwamnatin Putin'. Amma takunkumin bai haifar da sakamakon da Amurka ke so ba a Cuba, Koriya ta Arewa, China, Iran, Syria, Venezuela ko kuma a ko'ina. Maimakon a zubar da jini cikin biyayya, Rasha za ta yi nasara a yakin, saboda dole ne Putin ya yi. Amma idan NATO ta shiga cikinta, duk fare sun ƙare.
Mai yiyuwa ne Moscow ta sami ikon dindindin na Mariupol, Donetsk da Luhansk, kuma ta sami gadar ƙasa zuwa Crimea da yankin gabas da kogin Dneiper inda yawancin filayen noma na Ukraine da albarkatun makamashi suke. Tekun Odessa da Tekun Azov suna da albarkatun mai da iskar gas, waɗanda za su iya ci gaba da fitar da su zuwa Turai, waɗanda ke buƙatar su. Za a ci gaba da fitar da alkama zuwa kasar Sin. Sauran Ukraine, da aka hana su zama memba na NATO, na iya zama batun kwandon tattalin arziki. Kasashen da ke bukatar fitar da Rasha zuwa kasashen waje suna kaurace wa dalar Amurka kuma suna kasuwanci a cikin ruble. Basusukan da ake bin kasar Rasha ya kai kashi 18 cikin XNUMX, wanda ya yi kasa da na Amurka, Australia da sauran kasashe da dama. Duk da takunkumi, kawai jimlar takunkumin makamashi zai shafi Rasha sosai, kuma hakan ba zai yiwu ba.
Mutanen Ostiraliya suna ɗaukar manyan asusun watsa labarai na yau da kullun. Yawancin sun firgita da irin wahalhalun da aka yi wa 'yan Ukrain, kuma Kashi 81 cikin XNUMX na son Australia ta goyi bayan Ukraine tare da taimakon jin kai, kayan aikin soja da takunkumi. Masu sauraron studio na ABC's Tambaya + A shirin a ranar 3 ga Maris ya yarda da korar mai gabatarwa Stan Grant na wani saurayi wanda ya yi tambaya game da keta yarjejeniyar Minsk. Amma waɗanda ke da alaƙa da Ukraine - ƙawancin Amurka - yakamata suyi la'akari da kamanceceniya da Ostiraliya.
Shugaba Zelensky ya gargadi majalisar dokokin Australia a ranar 31 ga Maris game da barazanar da Australia ke fuskanta, daga China a fakaice. Sakon nasa shi ne, ba za mu iya dogara ga Amurka don aika sojoji ko jirgin sama don kare Ostiraliya ba fiye da yadda Ukraine za ta iya. Da alama ya fahimci cewa Yukren ta kasance barna ce a cikin dabarun dogon zango na Biritaniya da Amurka, wadanda ke da niyyar sauya tsarin mulki. Ya san cewa manufar kafa NATO ita ce adawa da Tarayyar Soviet. Gwamnatocin Ostireliya da suka ci nasara sun nemi tabbatarwa a rubuce-wanda ANZUS ba ta bayar da su ba-cewa Amurka za ta kare Ostiraliya. Amma sakon a bayyane yake. Kasar ku taku ce ku kare, in ji Amurka. Babban Hafsan Sojojin Amurka kwanan nan ya yi nuni da darussan Ukraine ga kawayen Amurka, suna tambaya, 'Shin suna shirye su mutu domin ƙasarsu?' Ya ambaci Taiwan, amma yana iya magana game da Ostiraliya. Maimakon kula da hankali, sai Firayim Minista Scott Morrison ya kwaikwayi maganganun shugabannin Amurka da suka gabata game da muguwar daula da kuma kusurwoyin mugunta, tare da zage-zage game da 'layi ja' da 'bakar mulkin kama karya'.
Abin da ke faruwa a Ukraine zai nuna wa Ostiraliya yadda amintattun abokanmu na Amurka suke. Kamata ya yi ministocinmu da suke tsammanin za a yi yaki da kasar Sin su yi tunanin wanda zai kare mu da wanda zai ci nasara.
[1] Washington ta tabbata, Asiya Times kammala, don 'rusa gwamnatin Putin, idan ya cancanta ta hanyar tsawaita yakin Ukraine har tsawon lokacin da zai iya zubar da jinin Rasha.
[2] Laifi na zalunci ko laifi ga zaman lafiya shine shiryawa, farawa, ko aiwatar da wani gagarumin aiki na zalunci ta hanyar amfani da karfin soja na jiha. Wannan laifi a karkashin ICC ya fara aiki a cikin 2017 (Ben Saul, 'Hukunce-hukuncen Hukunci, azabtarwa: Dole ne Ostiraliya ta matsa don Rike Rasha zuwa Lissafi', The Sydney Morning Herald, 7 Afrilu 2022.
[3] Don Rothwell, 'Rike Putin don La'akari da Laifukan Yaki', A Australia, 6 Afrilu 2022.
[4] Ken Dilarian, Courtney Kube, Carol E. Lee, Dan De Luce, 6 Afrilu 2022; Caitlin Johnstone, 10 Afrilu 2022.
[5] Haruna Mata, "Buƙatar sauya tsarin mulki a Rasha, Biden ya fallasa manufofin Amurka a Ukraine", 29 Maris 2022. Amurka ta amince da samar da makamai masu linzami na tsaka-tsaki, bayarwa Yukren da ikon buga filayen jiragen sama na Rasha.
