Alkawarin da Biden ya yi na guje wa yaƙi da Rasha na iya kashe mu duka

An kai hari kan gadar Kerch mashigin tekun da ta hada Crimea da Rasha. Credit: Hotunan Getty

Daga Medea Benjamin da Nicolas JS Davies, World BEYOND War, Oktoba 12, 2022

A ranar 11 ga Maris, 2022, Shugaba Biden sake tabbata jama'ar Amurka da duniya cewa Amurka da kawayenta na NATO ba su yi yaki da Rasha ba. "Ba za mu yi yaki da Rasha a Ukraine ba," in ji Biden. "Rikicin kai tsaye tsakanin NATO da Rasha shine yakin duniya na uku, wani abu da dole ne mu yi ƙoƙari mu hana."
An yarda cewa jami'an Amurka da na NATO a yanzu cikakkar hannu a cikin shirye-shiryen yakin aiki na Ukraine, da taimakon Amurka da dama tattara bayanan sirri da kuma yin nazari don amfani da raunin sojan Rasha, yayin da sojojin Ukraine ke dauke da makamai na Amurka da NATO da kuma horar da su daidai da matsayin sauran kasashen NATO.

A ranar 5 ga Oktoba, Nikolay Patrushev, shugaban kwamitin tsaro na Rasha. gane cewa yanzu Rasha na yaki da NATO a Ukraine. A halin da ake ciki, Shugaba Putin ya tunatar da duniya cewa Rasha tana da makaman nukiliya kuma a shirye take ta yi amfani da su “lokacin da ake fuskantar barazanar wanzuwar kasar,” kamar yadda koyarwar makaman nukiliya ta Rasha ta ayyana a watan Yuni 2020.

Da alama, a karkashin wannan koyarwar, shugabannin Rasha za su fassara rashin nasara a yakin Amurka da NATO a kan iyakokinsu a matsayin cimma matakin amfani da makaman nukiliya.

Shugaba Biden yarda A ranar 6 ga Oktoba cewa Putin "ba wasa ba ne" kuma zai yi wahala Rasha ta yi amfani da makamin nukiliya "dabaru" kuma ba za ta ƙare da Armageddon ba. Biden ya kimanta haɗarin cikakken sikelin yakin nukiliya fiye da kowane lokaci tun rikicin makami mai linzami na Cuba a 1962.

Duk da haka duk da bayyana yuwuwar wata barazana ga rayuwarmu, Biden bai yi gargadin jama'a ga jama'ar Amurka da duniya ba, kuma bai sanar da wani canji a manufofin Amurka ba. Wani abin ban mamaki, a maimakon haka, shugaban ya tattauna batun yakin nukiliyar ne tare da masu goyon bayan jam'iyyarsa ta siyasa a lokacin wani taron tattara kudade na zabe a gidan dan jarida James Murdoch, tare da mamakin manema labarai na kamfanoni suna saurare.

a wani Rahoton da aka ƙayyade na NPR game da hatsarin yakin nukiliya a kan Ukraine, Matthew Bunn, masanin makamin nukiliya a Jami'ar Harvard, ya kiyasta damar da Rasha za ta yi amfani da makaman nukiliya da kashi 10 zuwa 20 cikin dari.

Ta yaya muka tafi daga yin watsi da shigar Amurka da NATO kai tsaye a cikin yakin zuwa shigar Amurka a kowane bangare na yakin in ban da zubar da jini da mutuwa, tare da kiyasin kashi 10 zuwa 20 na damar yakin nukiliya? Bunn ya yi wannan kiyasin jim kadan kafin a yi zagon kasa ga gadar Kerch Strait zuwa Crimea. Wane irin rashin fahimta ne zai iya aiwatarwa nan da 'yan watanni idan bangarorin biyu suka ci gaba da daidaita matsalar juna tare da kara ta'azzara?

Matsalolin da ba za a iya warwarewa ba da shugabannin ƙasashen yamma ke fuskanta shi ne cewa wannan lamari ne na rashin nasara. Ta yaya za su yi nasara a kan Rasha, yayin da ta mallaki 6,000 makaman nukiliya kuma akidarta ta soja ta bayyana karara cewa za ta yi amfani da su kafin ta yarda da shan kaye na soja?

Kuma duk da haka abin da rawar da yammacin Turai ke takawa a Ukraine ke da niyyar cimmawa a fili ke nan. Wannan ya bar manufofin Amurka da NATO, don haka wanzuwar mu, rataye ta hanyar zaren bakin ciki: begen cewa Putin yana daɗaɗawa, duk da faɗakarwar gargaɗin cewa ba haka bane. Daraktan CIA William Burns, Daraktan leken asiri na kasa Avril Haines da darektan DIA (Hukumar leken asirin tsaro), Laftanar Janar Scott Berrier, duk sun yi gargaɗi cewa kada mu ɗauki wannan haɗari da wasa.

Hadarin da ke tattare da tashin hankali ga Armageddon shine abin da bangarorin biyu suka fuskanta a duk lokacin yakin cacar baka, wanda shine dalilin da ya sa, bayan kiran tashin rikicin makami mai linzami na Cuba a 1962, hatsabibin hadari ya ba da damar tsarin yarjejeniyar sarrafa makaman nukiliya da hanyoyin kariya. don hana yaƙe-yaƙe na wakilai da ƙawancen soja da ke ɓarkewa zuwa yaƙin nukiliyar da zai kawo ƙarshen duniya. Ko da waɗannan ka'idodin a wurin, akwai sauran kira na kusa da yawa - amma ba tare da su ba, da wataƙila ba za mu kasance a nan don yin rubutu game da shi ba.

A yau, lamarin yana ƙara yin haɗari ta hanyar wargaza waɗancan yarjejeniyoyin makaman nukiliya da kuma kariya. Har ila yau, yana kara tsanantawa, ko dai bangare ya nufa ko a'a, ta hanyar sha biyu-zuwa-daya rashin daidaito tsakanin kudaden da Amurka da Rasha ke kashewa na soji, wanda ke barin Rasha da mafi karancin zabin soja na al'ada da kuma dogaro da makaman nukiliya.

Amma a kodayaushe akwai hanyoyin da za a bi wajen kara ruruta wutar wannan yaki daga bangarorin biyu wanda ya kai mu ga wannan. A watan Afrilu, Jami'an Yamma sun dauki wani mummunan mataki a lokacin da suka shawo kan shugaba Zelensky ya yi watsi da shawarwarin da Turkiyya da Isra'ila suka yi da Rasha wanda ya haifar da kyakkyawar makoma. Tsarin maki 15 don tsagaita wuta, janyewar Rasha da kuma makomar tsaka tsaki ga Ukraine.

Wannan yarjejeniya ta bukaci kasashen yammacin duniya su ba da tabbacin tsaro ga Ukraine, amma sun ki shiga cikinta, maimakon haka sun yi alkawarin ba Ukraine goyon bayan soja na dogon lokaci don kokarin kawar da Rasha da kuma kwato dukkan yankunan da Ukraine ta yi hasarar tun shekara ta 2014.

Sakataren tsaron Amurka Austin ya bayyana cewa a yanzu burin kasashen yamma a yakin shine "rauni" Rasha har ta kai ga ba za ta sake samun karfin soji na sake mamaye Ukraine ba. Amma idan Amurka da kawayenta suka kusa cimma wannan buri, to tabbas Rasha za ta ga irin wannan cin kashi na soji kamar sanya “kasancewar kasa cikin barazana,” wanda zai haifar da amfani da makaman nukiliya a karkashin koyarwarta ta nukiliya da ta bayyana a bainar jama’a. .

A ranar 23 ga Mayu, ranar da Majalisa ta amince da wani kunshin taimakon dala biliyan 40 ga Ukraine, gami da dala biliyan 24 na sabbin kashe kudaden soji, sabani da hadurran sabbin manufofin yakin Amurka da NATO a Ukraine a karshe sun haifar da martani mai mahimmanci daga The New York Times. Hukumar Edita. A Editan lokaci, mai taken "Yaƙin Yukren yana samun rikitarwa, kuma Amurka ba ta shirye ba," an yi tambayoyi masu tsanani, masu bincike game da sabuwar manufofin Amurka:

“Misali Amurka tana kokarin taimakawa wajen kawo karshen wannan rikici, ta hanyar sasantawa da za ta ba da damar samun ‘yancin kai na Ukraine da wata irin alaka tsakanin Amurka da Rasha? Ko kuwa yanzu Amurka tana ƙoƙarin raunana Rasha har abada? Shin manufar gwamnatin ta koma tabarbarewar Putin ko kuma cire shi? Shin Amurka tana da niyyar ɗaukar Putin alhakin laifin yaƙi? Ko manufar ƙoƙarin guje wa yaƙi mafi girma…? Ba tare da fayyace kan waɗannan tambayoyin ba, Fadar White House… tana yin illa ga zaman lafiya da tsaro na dogon lokaci a nahiyar Turai."

Editocin NYT sun ci gaba da bayyana abin da mutane da yawa suka yi tunani amma 'yan kaɗan sun yi ƙarfin hali su faɗi a cikin irin wannan yanayi na siyasa na siyasa, cewa makasudin dawo da duk yankin da Ukraine ta rasa tun 2014 ba gaskiya ba ne, kuma yakin da za a yi hakan zai " yi barna da ba a taba gani ba a Ukraine." Sun yi kira ga Biden da ya yi magana da gaskiya tare da Zelenskyy game da "yawan hallakar da Ukraine za ta iya ci gaba" da "iyakar yadda Amurka da NATO za su fuskanci Rasha."

Bayan mako guda, Biden amsa da The Times a cikin wani Op-Ed mai taken "Abin da Amurka za ta yi kuma ba za ta yi a Ukraine ba." Ya ambato Zelenskyy yana cewa yakin "za a kawo karshen ta ta hanyar diflomasiyya kawai," kuma ya rubuta cewa Amurka tana aika makamai da alburusai domin Ukraine "za ta iya fada a fagen fama kuma ta kasance a matsayi mafi karfi a kan teburin tattaunawa."

Biden ya rubuta, "Ba za mu nemi yaki tsakanin NATO da Rasha ba…. Amurka ba za ta yi kokarin kawo karshen (Putin) a Moscow ba." Amma ya ci gaba da yin alkawarin ba da goyon bayan Amurka mara iyaka ga Ukraine, kuma bai amsa tambayoyi masu wuyar da Times ta yi ba game da karshen wasan Amurka a Ukraine, iyakacin shigar Amurka a yakin ko kuma barnar da Ukraine za ta iya dorewa.

Yayin da yaƙin ke ƙaruwa kuma haɗarin yaƙin nukiliya ya ƙaru, ba a amsa waɗannan tambayoyin ba. An yi ta kiraye-kirayen a kawo karshen yakin cikin gaggawa a wajen taron Majalisar Dinkin Duniya a birnin New York a watan Satumba, inda Kasashen 66, wanda ke wakiltar mafi yawan al'ummar duniya, ya yi kira ga dukkan bangarorin da su sake fara tattaunawar zaman lafiya.

Babban hatsarin da muke fuskanta shi ne, ba za a yi watsi da kiran da suke yi ba, kuma ma’aikatan sojan Amurka da masana’antu da ake biya fiye da kima, za su ci gaba da neman hanyoyin da za su kara matsa lamba kan Rasha, suna kiran ta da rashin fahimta da kuma yin watsi da “jajayen layukan” kamar yadda suke yi tun daga lokacin. 1991, har sai sun haye mafi mahimmanci "layin ja" na duka.

Idan har an ji kiraye-kirayen zaman lafiya na duniya tun kafin lokaci ya kure, kuma mun tsira daga wannan rikici, to dole ne Amurka da Rasha su sabunta alkawarinsu na sarrafa makamai da kwance damarar makaman nukiliya, su tattauna yadda su da sauran kasashe masu dauke da makaman kare dangi. zai halakar makamansu na hallaka jama'a da kuma yarda da su Yarjejeniyar don Haramcin Makaman Nukiliya, ta yadda a karshe za mu iya dauke wannan hatsarin da ba za a iya zato ba, wanda ya rataya a wuyanmu.

Medea Benjamin da Nicolas JS Davies sune marubutan Yaƙi a Ukraine: Yin Ma'anar Rikici mara Ma'ana, akwai daga OR Littattafai a cikin Nuwamba 2022.

Medea Biliyaminu ita ce tushen haɗin gwiwa CODEPINK don Aminci, da marubucin littattafai da dama, ciki har da A cikin Iran: Gaskiya da Tarihin Jamhuriyar Musulunci ta Iran. 

Nicolas JS Davies ɗan jarida ne mai zaman kansa, mai bincike tare da CODEPINK kuma marubucin Jini a Hannunmu: mamayar Amurkawa da lalata Iraki.