m: Shugaba Obama yana ajiye sojojin Amurka a Afganistan suna yaƙin da ba za a yi nasara ba saboda tsoron sakamakon siyasa idan ya fuskanci gaskiya kuma ya amince da shan kaye, wani karin magana na Vietnam, in ji Jonathan Marshall.
Daga Jonathan Marshall, Consortium News
Masana tarihi har yanzu suna ta muhawara kan ko shugaba John F. Kennedy zai janye sojojin Amurka daga Vietnam da ya rayu ya sake lashe zabe a shekara ta 1964. Tun bayan shugaba Barack Obama a kwanan nan. sanar Aniyarsa ta ajiye akalla sojojin Amurka 8,400 a Afganistan har zuwa karshen wa’adin shugabancinsa, muhawara daya tilo ita ce dalilin da ya sa bai janye ba amma ya zabi ya ba da gadon yakin da ba za a yi nasara ba - wanda ya fi dadewa a tarihin Amurka - ga magajinsa.
Yakin Amurka a Afganistan zai wuce shekaru 15 a hukumance nan da 'yan watanni. Amma kamar Vietnam, inda Amurka ta fara taimakawa sojojin Faransa yan mulkin mallaka a karshen shekarun 1940, Afghanistan ta kasance makasudin yakin Washington na fiye da shekaru uku da rabi.
Ranar 3 ga Yuli, 1979, Shugaba Carter na farko ya ba da izinin ba da taimako a asirce ga masu adawa da gwamnatin masu adawa da gwamnati a Kabul. Wani babban jami'in Pentagon ya ba da shawarar taimakon don "tsotsin Soviets cikin wani yanki na Vietnam."
Lokacin da Moscow ta dauki batu kuma ta aika da sojoji a watan Disamba don tallafawa gwamnatin Afganistan a kan karuwar ta'addanci a yankunan karkara, mai ba da shawara kan harkokin tsaro Zbigniew Brzezinski cikin farin ciki ya rubuta wa Shugaba Carter cewa, "Yanzu muna da damar baiwa USSR yakin Vietnam."
Kira shi baya, ko kuma kawai abin ban mamaki na tarihi, amma Afganistan ta koma yakin Vietnam na biyu na Amurka. A ƙarshe Soviets suna da kyakkyawar ma'ana don ja da baya bayan an zubar da jini na shekaru goma. Gwamnatin Obama na tunanin zama a can har abada. Karkashin Yarjejeniyar Tsaro ta Yarjejeniyar Shugaba Obama ya sa hannu a Kabul a 2014, sojojin Amurka na iya ci gaba da zama a Afghanistan "har zuwa karshen 2024 da kuma bayan."
Shugaba Obama ya ki yarda da duk wani kwatankwacin Vietnam a fili magana kusan shekaru bakwai da suka gabata. Amma kamar Vietnam, rikicinmu da ke gudana a Afganistan ya zama wani yanki mai cike da bege, wanda ke tattare da karya a hukumance, cin zarafi, cin hanci da rashawa da kuma rashin jagoranci na sojojin gwamnati wadanda suka tsira a fagen fama saboda harin bam na Amurka. Kamar Vietnam, Afganistan tana wakiltar ɓarna na rayuka (fiye da 300,000 da aka kashe kai tsaye ta farkon 2015) da albarkatun (fiye da biyu tiriliyan daloli).
Ko da fiye da Vietnam, rikici ne wanda babu wanda a Washington ya damu don ba da wata dabara. Mafi kyawun abin da Shugaba Obama zai iya fitowa da shi a cikin nasa Sanarwar ranar 6 ga Yuli kan Afghanistan"Na yi imani da gaske cewa yana cikin amfanin tsaron kasa - musamman bayan duk jini da dukiyar da muka zuba a Afghanistan tsawon shekaru - mu baiwa abokan aikinmu na Afganistan dama mafi kyawu don samun nasara."
Wannan dabarar ita ce abin da ke sa 'yan caca ke dawowa gidajen caca na Sheldon Adelson kowace shekara don rasa ƙarin kuɗi.
'Mai haɗari' ko ba za a iya cin nasara ba?
A Vietnam, Amurka ba za ta iya yin nasara da sojoji fiye da rabin miliyan ba. A Afghanistan, Amurka ba za ta iya doke Taliban da sojoji 100,000 ba. Obama ba ya tunanin da gaske zai iya yin nasara da sojoji 8,400 kawai - musamman tare da Taliban suna samun ci gaba.
"Halin tsaro ya kasance cikin hadari," in ji shi. "Duk da yadda suke samun ci gaba, har yanzu jami'an tsaron Afghanistan ba su da karfi kamar yadda ake bukata. Har yanzu dai Taliban na zama barazana. Sun samu galaba a wasu lokutan.”
Kamar yadda yake a Vietnam, duk da haka, hafsoshin soja masu kishi da mayaka farar hula masu kujera sun yi iƙirari da ƙarfin gwiwa cewa nasara tana buƙatar ƙaramin ƙaranci. Sauti kamar shaho na zamanin Vietnam, Janar David Petraeus mai ritaya da Michael O'Hanlon na Brookings - wanda a baya jagoran fara'a don mamaye Iraki - ya zargi gwamnatin da sanya "dakarun Amurka da na kawance a Afganistan suna aiki da hannu daya daure a bayansu." Don cin nasara a yakin, sun ba da sanarwar, "Ya kamata mu saki ikon iska don tallafawa abokanmu na Afghanistan."
A cikin Indochina, ba shakka, duk tashin bom ɗinmu mai ban haushi, wanda ya tashi sau uku ton fadi a yakin duniya na biyu, kawai taurare juriyar abokan gaba. Nazarin kwanan nantabbatar da cewa harin bam din ba shi da wani tasiri kuma ya jefa fararen hula a hannun 'yan tawayen Viet Cong, a daidai lokacin da bama-bamai, jirage marasa matuka da kuma hare-haren dare na Amurka ke taimakawa 'yan Taliban.
Shugaba Richard Nixon ya san hakan a lokacin, kodayake ya dage a bainar jama'a cewa harin bam na Amurka "yana da tasiri sosai." Kamar yadda ya rubuta cikin yanke kauna a cikin a bayanin kula zuwa ga Henry Kissinger, mashawarcinsa kan harkokin tsaro na kasa, "Mun yi shekaru 10 na sarrafa sararin samaniya a Laos da V.Nam. Sakamakon = Zilch. Akwai matsala game da dabarun ko rundunar sojojin sama."
Babban tashin bama-bamai ba zai iya daidaita rashin son sojojin Kudancin Vietnam na yin kasada da rayukansu ga shugabanni masu cin hanci da rashawa ba. Kamar yadda a cikin Vietnam, wanda ya zama sanannun "kazamin yaki" Jami'an Afghanistan sun yi aljihu dubun dubatan daloli da aka ware domin ababen more rayuwa da gina cibiyoyi. Suna kuma karfafawa yawaitar fataucin opium da tabar heroin, kamar yadda Taliban suka yi.
Sai dai ’yan Taliban suna amfani da ribar da suke samu wajen daukar nauyin tayar da kayar bayansu, maimakon haka aka kai su Dubai, inda iyalan manyan jami'an Afganistan ke kula da asusun banki masu kitse da gidajen alfarma.
Yawancin sojojin Afghanistan sun ƙunshi "fatalwa" sojoji da jami'ai, wanda ke karbar albashin da ke wadatar da gurbatattun shugabannin Sojoji. A wasu larduna, kusan rabin duk 'yan sanda ma'aikatan fatalwa kuma.
A halin yanzu, sojoji na gaske suna aiki sayar da dubunnan makaman Amurka ga Taliban. Wasu kuma suna harba makamansu ba kowa ba musamman don su sayar akwatunan harsashi na jan karfe a bakar kasuwa.
Basan Pakistan
Dakarun Taliban masu karfi suna da matukar wahala a doke su saboda an wartsake su kuma ana samun su daga sansanonin Pakistan, inda shugabanninsu ke zaune. Ɗaya daga cikin mahimman darussa na Yaƙin Vietnam shine kusan rashin yiwuwar samun nasara a kan yunƙurin tayar da kayar baya wanda ke da wuraren mafaka na makwabta.
A Vietnam, aƙalla, shugabannin Amurka sun ci gaba da yin shawarwari da abokan gaba don kawo ƙarshen rikici. A Afganistan, babu wanda ke zaune a teburin sulhu, kuma jiragen yakin Amurka sun kai farmakin An kashe shugaban Taliban Akhtar Mohammad Mansour a watan Mayu da kyar aka samu gayyata maraba daga Washington.
Pakistan zargi Afganistan don gazawar shirin samar da zaman lafiya a ko'ina. Wata mai magana da yawun gwamnatin Pakistan ta ba da misali da "rashin wata yarjejeniya ta kasa don tallafawa tsarin sulhu," da kuma "matsalolin tsaro da ke kara tabarbarewa, cin hanci da rashawa da sauran matsalolin gudanarwa."
Ita ma kungiyar Taliban da kawayenta da ba su jajirce ba ne ke da laifi. A watan Yuni, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, shugaban wani bangare na masu kishin Islama. ya bukaci cewa gwamnatin Kabul ta tura dukkan sojojin kasashen waje gida tare da wargaza kanta. Abin mamaki, shi ne babban abokin Amurka (da Pakistan) a lokacin yakin da Tarayyar Soviet, duk da (ko saboda) sunansa na rashin tausayi da rashin tausayi. jagorancin kasuwancin muggan kwayoyi na Afghanistan. Sosai ga masu godiya.
To me yasa Obama baya fita kawai? Wannan ya yi aiki a Vietnam, wanda Washington a yau ke zawarci a matsayin aboki. Amma kamar yawancin shugabannin gudanarwa a yau, Shugabanni suna tunani sosai game da nan gaba nan gaba fiye da sakamakon da za a samu bayan sun bar ofis.
Har ila yau, Vietnam yana da koyarwa. Shugaba Lyndon Johnson ya ji gargadi da yawa cewa yakin ba zai yi nasara ba, amma ya tuna da yadda 'yan Republican suka rufe gwamnatin Truman bayan "fadu" na kasar Sin. Kamar yadda LBJ ya gaya wa Ambasada Henry Cabot Lodge a ƙarshen 1963, “Ba zan rasa Vietnam ba. Ba zan zama shugaban da ya ga kudu maso gabashin Asiya ya tafi yadda kasar Sin ta bi ba."
Hakazalika, Shugaba Nixon - wanda ya gina aikinsa a Majalisa ta hanyar buga katin adawa da gurguzu - ya ce ba zai zama "Shugaban Amurka na farko da ya rasa yaki ba."
Shugaba Obama ya san sarai cewa na'urar harin Republican za ta bi shi da sauran 'yan Democrat idan ya "rasa" Afghanistan ko Iraki, duk da rashin jin daɗin jama'a game da yaƙe-yaƙe biyu. Don haka yanke shawarar da ya yanke na ci gaba da fada, a farashi kadan kuma ba tare da wani kyakkyawan fata na yin nasara ba, yana da ma'ana ta siyasa.
Amma kuma siyasarsa matsorata ce da rashin da'a. Shugaba Obama - da sakataren harkokin wajensa na yanzu - yakamata su tuna da shaidar tsohon sojan ruwa Laftanar John Kerry a gaban kwamitin hulda da kasashen waje na majalisar dattawa a shekarar 1971.
Da yake ambaton alƙawarin Shugaba Nixon na ba zai zama shugaban farko da ya yi hasarar yaƙi ba. Kerry ya tambaya, “Yaya ake tambayar mutum ya zama mutum na ƙarshe da ya mutu a Vietnam? Ta yaya za ka ce mutum ya zama mutum na ƙarshe da ya mutu bisa kuskure?”
